It's Time To End The Mason Miller Rumors, He's A Cornerstone To The Padres' Success

[Greg Spicer]

With the addition of KBO star Sung Mun Song and the re-signing of Michael King, it appears Padres general manager AJ Preller has finally come out of hibernation. Granted, he never actually went quiet, but Padres fans have grown accustomed to high-activity offseasons, and this year’s break has been quieter than usual in San Diego.

One of the lingering rumors surrounding the Padres’ activity is that Preller has been listening to offers on superstar closer Mason Miller. Recently acquired at the 2025 deadline, Miller was dominant in San Diego last season, and trading him would be a huge mistake.

Here’s what the 27-year-old produced in 2025:

• 61 2/3 Innings Pitched
• 10 Holds
• 22 Saves
• 2.63 ERA
• 2.56 xERA
• 2.23 FIP
• 2.27 xFIP
• 44.4% K-rate
• 12% BB-rate
• 2.0 FanGraphs WAR

Regardless of the approach the Padres take this offseason, there is no reason to trade Miller. Not only is he an incredible player, but his age, contract, and skill set also make him a cornerstone for any organizational direction.

Let’s say Preller isn’t able to execute any big trades or free-agent signings and instead decides to rebuild or retool. Miller should still, absolutely, be part of the future vision.

In July, they traded the No. 3 overall prospect, Leo De Vries, along with other talent to acquire him. It’s unlikely they will find another team willing to offer a similar package. Trading Miller for a lesser return would mean cutting “losses” on not winning the championship last season, which is an unnecessary measure.

If they decide to retool, Miller can be the anchor of the bullpen. He will be cost-efficient until he enters free agency in 2030, and keeping him as closer would allow the Padres to focus on other areas of the team. I assume a retool would include a shift in what the Padres are built around. Over the last few seasons, San Diego’s strongest dimension has been its bullpen. They finished top-three in FIP in both 2024 and 2025, while leading MLB with a 3.06 ERA last season.

If they retool, they should let Miller carry the back-end load and throw 70+ innings at a cheap price, then use their other assets to build a more reliable lineup and starting staff.

I find it unlikely they take it a step further and begin a full-on rebuild, especially given their two recent signings. However, if they did choose that route, they would be better off taking a shot at Miller becoming a starter. As I detailed after they acquired him at the deadline, Miller can be an elite starting pitcher. If he takes on that role and performs well, teams would be even more attracted to him, potentially allowing the Padres to receive greater value in a later trade.

Now, if San Diego still hopes to compete for the NL West - let alone a championship - Miller should be a key piece of that plan. The stats speak for themselves, and there’s no indication his talent is going anywhere.

His fastball averaged a career-high 101.2 mph last season, and although its Statcast run value was a mediocre +1 (down from a +11 in 2024), batters hit it to just a .171 xBA. The lower run value of the heater was likely due to opponents’ unsustainable 49.1% hard-hit rate against it in 2025. 

No advanced metrics project that dips to hold, and opposing hitters ultimately stopped hammering it once he got to San Diego. The issue stemmed from a short-lived early-season slump in Oakland. In San Diego, he produced: 

• 23.1 IP
• 0.77 ERA
• 1.12 FIP
• 1.09 xFIP

Along with his famous fastball, Miller’s slider is becoming the most dangerous off-speed pitch in baseball. As described above, teams were clearly sitting on his fastball last season. Instead of forcing the issue, Miller leaned into his breaking stuff.

He threw his slider a career-high 46% of the time in 2025 at 87.8 mph - a 12.5 mph difference from his fastball. Production-wise, he was rewarded with a +16 run value, which sits in the top first percentile among all pitches in baseball, along with a 54.6% whiff rate.

In a year where batters effectively squared up his fastball, Miller proved that opposing lineups will have to keep picking their poison - and even if sitting on one pitch works, he will still find ways to get you out.

The production and electricity are undeniable. Still, it could be argued that Miller should be traded to help bolster other parts of the roster. That’s where you have to look at rival teams and evaluate what Preller has to do to build a competitive club.

There’s no need to look further than the Los Angeles Dodgers: The defending two-time champions and a division rival.

San Diego is a juggernaut in spending, but, like all teams, it operates with just a fraction of the Dodgers’ billion-dollar payroll. If the Padres are going to hold their own against Los Angeles, they need to find ways to acquire equal talent at a more affordable price.

Shohei Ohtani is a unicorn who can’t be matched, but superstars Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado can, both financially and production-wise, match the Mookie Betts/Freddie Freeman duo. The pitching staff still needs some work, but if King and Joe Musgrove are healthy and Preller adds one more starter, they should have enough depth to throw a quality arm in every playoff game.

As for the bullpen, the Dodgers just invested in All-Star closer Edwin Díaz for the next three seasons, paying him nearly $70 million. Keeping Miller as a closer is the only way San Diego can match the Dodgers’ newly acquired bullpen firepower - at a cost of at least $20 million less per season.

With their former All-Star closer Robert Suarez gone to Atlanta this offseason, and other question marks surrounding the bullpen, the Padres should bank on Miller as the foundation of their pitching staff. He clearly has the production, talent, and potential to do so. Once that foundation is established, they can turn their focus toward improving an inconsistent lineup and starting rotation.

View full article