The Padres Paradox: Do You Trade a Starting Pitcher to Add Another One?

[Randy Holt]

Even at this late stage of the winter, we know the San Diego Padres still have work to do on their 2026 roster and that their priorities could be aligned in a number of ways.

For example, we know that they want to add another starting pitcher. Having added Michael King back into the mix and signing a smattering of low-cost or minor-league deals — Sean Boyle, Triston McKenzie, and Kyle Hart among them — will go a long way toward building out a rotation that already features Nick Pivetta, a returning-from-Tommy-John Joe Musgrove, and back-end candidates Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, and JP Sears. Despite the volume, though, there remains more stability to be found on either of the free agent or trade markets. 

We also know that the team has had talks about trading from their big-league roster at different points throughout the offseason. Pivetta has previously been mentioned as a trade candidate. Any of the elite bullpen, too, with Jeremiah Estrada, Mason Miller, and Adrian Morejon each finding their name floating out in the trade ether at various points this winter. While there's certainly logic in moving a reliever to acquire a starter given the strength of the bullpen, it's hard to see such a deal coming to fruition unless there was legitimate upside out of a young arm (with control) from another organization. It could still happen, but there's an apparent reluctance to do so considering that strength juxtaposed with a rotation that doesn't run terribly deep on performance or efficiency.

The prospect of trading Pivetta against the need for additional starting pitching opens up a very interesting paradox, however.

Trading Pivetta, in a vacuum, is an idea we explored fairly recently. In addition to the career year and the signs of an inevitable regression, his salary skyrockets from a mere $1 million in 2025 to $19 million in 2026 (though it's worth noting his payroll figure is actually at $13.75 million regardless). He will, though, cost a combined $32 million across each of 2027 and 2028. There are also a pair of opt-outs that could lead to him to re-exploring the market by then. As is generally the case with opt-outs, if a player doesn't exercise them, it's probably because their performance is waning. For a purportedly cash-strapped team like San Diego, you could make the argument that it's at least worth considering.

Except the already-existent need for starting pitching makes it more difficult to justify... unless they had a plan in place for his replacement. 

There are three noteworthy starting pitchers still out on the free-agent market: Zac Gallen, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez. Each of Valdez (3.7) and Suárez (3.3) are projected by STEAMER to produce more fWAR than Pivetta (2.9) in 2026. Gallen trails due to some efficiency issues the last two years but has also topped out at a higher figure than any of the other three names when he went for a 5.2 fWAR back in 2023. One imagines that the upside of any of that trio would stretch the team's ceiling far above where it currently resides. The cost might still end up bring prohibitive, however. 

Even with his actual salary figure, Pivetta's AAV ($13.75 million) remains an affordable number against the luxury tax threshold for the Padres. Ahead of this offseason, MLB Trade Rumors projected Valdez for a five-year, $150 million deal, Suárez for five years and $115 million, and Gallen for four years and $80 million. That's an AAV of $25 million, $23 million, and $20 million, respectively, without any additional contract logistics (e.g., deferrals) that could lower the number. That's more money on the books over a longer term. Even with the upside, each brings certain questions. It'd likely be a tough sell for ownership. 

That is, of course, unless the winter reaches a point where someone might be inclined to seek less term in order to revisit the market in the next year or two. It might be a dangerous proposition given where labor relations currently reside, but possible all the same as a route that has been taken by a handful of upper-tier free agents over the last few offseasons. Should such a scenario arise, would A.J. Preller be more inclined to give someone like Zac Gallen around $20 million to pitch for a year or two over Pivetta doing the same? 

It's an interesting concept, but one without a whole lot of evidence on which to stand as legitimate. It assumes that the Padres don't believe in Pivetta replicating the success of the previous season, that the remaining free agents are not going to get the type of term they seek on the market, and that Preller would automatically turn around and use that financial flexibility to pursue a free-agent starter rather than, potentially, shooting lower on upside in order to raise the floor of both the pitching staff and the bench. That's too many assumptions wrapped up in one idea for us to possibly lay credence to any of it.

Nevertheless, we're also dealing with an unpredictable executive in an offseason that is growing shorter by the day. With the team in a position where they desire to add another starter and have a visible need for one, we can't discount the idea of a shakeup of this caliber in the coming weeks.

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[Stuart Shaffer]

1. Now that Bichette has chosen NYM, they might be ready to discuss trading for a SD SP.  NYM has one or two presumably ML ready SPs they might exchange for a veteran SP.  If Mr. Preller talks to NYM, he should consider also asking for SP Tyler Megill who is out until 2027.  NYM might trade a SP they can't use this year, and the Padres would get a reasonably priced pitcher with two more years of control.  2. BOS might now be ready to discuss a trade for a SD 2B.  BOS has more ML ready SPs than NYM, and a 2B plus a RP in exchange for one of them might work out.  Also, BOS has SP Tanner Houck on the IL until 2027, and they might be willing to move him, giving SD another reasonably priced SP candidate for '27/'28.