Randy Vásquez's Jekyll-and-Hyde Season Could Portend Future Success

[Randy Holt]

Given that he threw as many major-league innings in 2025 as he did in each of 2023 and 2024 combined, it wouldn't have been hard to call the former a career season for San Diego Padres starting pitcher Randy Vásquez. And in many ways, it was. 

After 20 starts in his first full season in San Diego, Vásquez made 26 starts (28 appearances overall) for the Padres last year. His ERA checked in at 3.84 (4.85 FIP). He improved each of his groundball and home run rates by roughly two percent  — 40.1 & 8.3, respectively — while continuing to thrive via avoidance of quality contact. His 39.3 Hard-Hit% landed in the 60th percentile. Of course, when you're talking about a pitcher whose skill set lives on the margins due to minuscule whiff counts and occasionally shaky command, there's going to be variance within the results. Such was the case with Vásquez. 

From a month-to-month standpoint, Vásquez had some stretches where he was very good for the Padres in 2025. May, July, and September each stand out, as he went every-other-month in his ability to find success. 

May's 28 innings of work came with a 2.89 ERA and a strikeout bump from just 8.2 percent in April to 18.8 percent. He posted a 2.79 ERA in 19 innings in July, with a .289 opposing wOBA that was 20 points lower than even his finest work in the months prior. September, though, is what has many optimistic about what Vásquez's future in this rotation could look like. In 22 1/3 innings to close the year, Vásquez pitched to a 3.22 ERA, with a .260 opposing wOBA, a season-high 21.3 K%, and a 29.9 percent hard-hit rate. 

As should be expected given what happened in between those three individual months, there's an enigmatic quality to the 2025 output from Vásquez. The month that featured his best ERA also featured his highest amount of hard contact allowed and a season-low strikeout rate. In August, meanwhile, he posted his highest whiff rate and lowest walk rate but had an ERA over eight. Of course, that came across just seven innings of big-league work. Nevertheless, there's a lot going on there for a pitcher who was already somewhat difficult to figure out in terms of future projection. 

In order to try and predict his future output, though, it requires one to redefine expectations given where Vásquez was supposed to be based on his prospect profile versus where he actually is. The following is his writeup from MLB Pipeline back in 2023, when he was a prospect with the New York Yankees:

Quote

"Vásquez owned the nastiest curveball in the Yankees system, combining low-80s power with vertical and horizontal movement produced by spin rates that top 3,100 rpm. His low arm slot imparts difficult induced vertical break on four-seam fastballs that park at 93-95 mph and reach 100. He also can mix in a slider with more velocity and sweep but less consistency than his curve and possesses a fading upper-80s changeup that needs more separation from his heater."

Last year's iteration of Vásquez saw him utilize (technically) seven different pitches. He led the way with three different fastballs: a four-seam, a sinker, and a cutter. The four-seam was primarily deployed against left-handed hitters while the sinker was for the righties. The cutter, meanwhile, was distributed in a nearly identical fashion regardless of handedness. His curveball took on more of a sweeper shape against righties while left-handed hitters got a more standard curveball as it took on more of a vertical shape.

The actual fastball velocity, though, sat at just 93.3 MPH (32nd percentile). While he was able to generate the type of spin noted in the scouting report in either form of his curve, he was also unable to generate much of anything when it came to whiffs. The more standard curveball got just a 15.8% swing-and-miss rate, while the sweeper was a bit higher at 25.2 percent. His overall 15.7 Whiff% landed in the first percentile among all qualified pitchers in 2025. This is also where we see some of the monthly variance come into play. The curve was rarely near the top of his whiff rates, while the sweeper was there early before falling behind: 

It's that type of graphic that speaks to a couple of issues with Vásquez, his arsenal, and his usage. For one, the pitch shape differs vastly depending on handedness. A second is that his command simply is not good enough for that type of differentiation.

The following is his movement profile from 2025: 

None of the work here is indicative of a pitcher who has full command of his arsenal, expansive as it may be. That he's this all over the place in his ability to garner swings and misses, mitigate hard contact, and locate pitches with regularity is a symptom of more overarching command woes. It's why we see such intense change between individual months. 

There is, however, something encouraging to take away from the end of the season. Over the last three months of the campaign, there were trends in his usage that indicated he might be settling into something more consistent with the way he deploys his pitches: 

The changeup falling out of the rotation is an encouraging start; Stuff+ rates it as his worst offering. The four-seam becoming his primary fastball of choice also seems wise. In the two years prior, Stuff+ had that as an above-average pitch before the really heavy mixing began in 2024. The curveball-sweeper dynamic is fine to stay if the command is there, since that appears to be a shape based on handedness. Ultimately, it looks as if Vásquez began to simplify toward the end of the year, and it's such simplification that could be key to him beginning to stabilize in 2026. 

Which would be kind of an essential development for him in the upcoming year. The Padres are working with Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and a returning-from-Tommy-John-surgery Joe Musgrove atop their rotation. There isn't much to speak of on the depth front. Randy Vásquez becoming a stabilizing presence capable of eating innings would be tremendous for a shallow group. Unfortunately, given his prior month-to-month woes, we may not know if these trends are real until the temperature starts to rise this season.

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[Stuart Shaffer]

Randy Vasquez has two attributes that endear him to management: He gets out there when it's his turn, and he generally gives you what he's got.  Those are valuable assets.  Also, Vasquez's development improves the Padres' grade on the Soto trade.  So far, by trading Soto to NYY, they've gotten two useful SPs, and two seasons of Cease, who also was sometimes useful.  If Brito ever pitches again, maybe he'll help too.