Rotation, Bullpen, or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down Triston McKenzie's Arsenal

[Steve Drumwright]

During the offseason, contending teams are always searching for hidden gems. In the case of right-handed starter Triston McKenzie, the San Diego Padres are looking to see if they can work some magic and restore some of the early-career luster to the once highly rated Cleveland Guardians prospect.

If so, the Friars could have a cheap addition for their rotation, which needs some fortification at the back end. McKenzie signed a minor-league contract with the Padres in December after being designated for assignment and outrighted to Triple-A following a rough beginning to last year.

McKenzie's struggles last year, in which he pitched just 16 minor-league games including eight appearances in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, could be remnants of his 2023 decision to choose rehab instead of having Tommy John surgery.

The troubles since then are in stark contrast to his 2022 season. Following a bumpy 2021 as a rookie with the Guardians, McKenzie put things together and posted a 3.59 FIP (2.96 ERA) in 31 games, all but one a start, and 191⅓ innings. That included a 5.9% walk and 25.6% strikeout rate. He started twice in the postseason, including a really good outing versus the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL Wild Card Series (6 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 8 SO) in a 15-inning triumph, then getting knocked around a bit by the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the AL Division Series (5 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 4 SO) in a walk-off win.

It is that enticing season that makes McKenzie such an attractive wild card for the Padres entering spring training. Due to two injuries in 2023, he has pitched in 24 MLB games (20 starts), tossing 97⅓ innings and notching a 6.21 FIP (5.46 ERA) and a horrendous 15.6% walk rate to go along with a 21.2% strikeout rate over the past three seasons combined.

That is where Ruben Niebla, the Padres' well-respected pitching coach who worked with McKenzie when he was in the Cleveland system, comes into play this spring. How much can the Friars fix in McKenzie and can he be an immediate contributor to the team or does he need time at Triple-A El Paso to work on his issues? While the Guardians are a pitching development machine, sometimes a player just needs a change of scenery.

Triston McKenzie's Stuff

Entering 2026 as a 28-year-old, McKenzie should have plenty of gas in his arm, especially with as much time that has elapsed since his a shoulder injury in March 2023 and elbow injury in June 2023. Since he pitched just 5⅔ innings over four relief appearances at the MLB level in 2025, everything has to be taken with a grain of salt.

McKenzie has three pitches, which he has had most of his career, and his struggles in 2025 can be seen in the limited results from Statcast. As an example, his four-seam fastball had 4.1 inches less tail than the average MLB right-hander but did have 4.9 inches more rise. His curveball was his most consistent pitch and right around league average, but his slider tended to hang a bit with 4.7 inches less drop. Reminder that this is data from just four MLB relief appearances.

Triston McKenzie's Arsenal

Leaning on three pitches, McKenzie offers a four-seamer, curveball and slider. He did have a changeup that he ditched after his rookie season of 2021 and then had his best season (and only full season since) in 2022.

His four-seamer was at career-high 93.7 mph in 2025, which was in the 39th percentile, and used it a whopping 80.5% of the time. That compares to 91.1 mph and 52.4% in 2024, 92.4 mph and 63.3% in 2023, 92.5 mph and 56.1 mph in 2022 and 92.1 mph and 61.6% in 2021.

McKenzie's curve has been pretty consistent velocity-wise, checking in at 79.5 mph and 13% usage, 77.7 mph and 26.6% in 2024, 78.8 mph and 16.7% in 2023, 79.4 and 21.9% in 2022 and 79.3 mph and 21% in 2021.

Finally, his slider, his least-used pitch, was at 86.6 mph and 6.5% usage in 2025, while at 85.4 mph and 21% in 2024, 85.2 mph and 20% in 2023, 87.3 mph and 21.9% in 2022 and 86.4 mph and 19.1% in 2021.

The lack of sustained time over the last three seasons leaves little to take away from much of this, other than his velocity hasn't suffered and perhaps is a tick better.

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2025	Four Seamer	99	55	44	80.5	93.7	25	17	5	3	1	0	1	2	16	.294	.317	.529	.574	.431	.495	91.6	21	2347	6.9	19.6	11.1
2025	Curveball	16	5	11	13.0	79.5	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	.000	.099	.000	.357	.000	.185	97.4	28	2303	6.7	66.7	22.2
2025	Slider	8	8	0	6.5	86.1	2	2	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	1.000	.636	1.500	1.053	1.067	.716	105.6	15	2046	6.7	0.0	0.0
2024	Four Seamer	683	338	345	52.4	91.1	198	155	47	25	6	0	16	22	134	.303	.299	.652	.670	.460	.462	92.4	21	2229	6.8	10.3	16.2
2024	Curveball	347	158	189	26.6	77.7	96	91	16	8	4	1	3	41	50	.176	.159	.341	.289	.242	.217	89.2	24	2212	6.6	37.3	25.9
2024	Slider	274	183	91	21.0	85.4	44	42	6	6	0	0	0	11	31	.143	.173	.143	.243	.152	.204	84.2	9	2167	6.7	37.6	21.6

What Should Triston McKenzie's Role Be In 2026?

Unless McKenzie blows the doors off in spring training or injuries force the Padres' hand, it would be prudent to have McKenzie gain a little confidence by starting at Triple-A El Paso. He also doesn't have any minor-league options remaining, which is why he was DFA'd by the Guardians early last year, which makes a trip to El Paso even more likely. But if McKenzie can smooth out whatever has ailed him, as his velocity would portend, he is definitely the non-roster arm to watch this spring.

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