Rotation, Bullpen, or El Paso: Analytically Breaking Down Griffin Canning's Arsenal

[Steve Drumwright]

Had he not ruptured his left Achilles tendon at the end of last June, right-hander Griffin Canning might have been a more sought-after starter this offseason. After all, he was in the midst of a breakout season with the New York Mets when the injury happened.

But it did occur and the San Diego Padres are hoping to capitalize on the opportunity by making Canning an addition to their roster a few days after pitchers and catchers reported to Peoria, Ariz. However, that payoff could be delayed. The San Diego Union-Tribune reported Canning might not be available until May.

The 29-year-old, who went to nearby Santa Margarita Catholic High School as well as UCLA, was 7-3 with a 4.04 FIP (3.77 ERA) at the time of the injury. He immediately jumps into the competition for a rotation spot. That was the second significant injury since making his MLB debut in 2019 with the Los Angeles Angels; Canning missed all of the 2022 season with a stress fracture in his back.

Griffin Canning's Stuff

The Angels' second-round pick in 2017 has some decent movement on most of his pitches. His four-seam fastball is about MLB average for a right-hander, with an extra two inches of tail.

His slider was dramatically better in 2025 than it had been previously. It had 6.1 more inches of drop, but three inches less break. Canning's changeup also gained more depth, dropping 2.6 inches more than average.

While relying on those three pitches, Canning also sprinkles in a curveball and cutter. His knuckle curveball is a pitch that could become more effective. In 2025, it tallied 4.3 inches more break, but 4.5 inches less drop than the MLB average, making it something of a hybrid between a slider and a traditional curve.

Griffin Canning's Arsenal

There are five pitches that Canning uses, with one of his offerings new to his repertoire in 2025. All of his pitches are right around the MLB average from a velocity perspective.

Canning's four-seamer was used at a 35.1% clip, including 37% vs. right-handed hitters, while his slider was next at 31.4% and up to 38% against right-handers. The changeup was used 23.2% of the time, including 28% when facing left-handed batters. His knuckle curve had a 6.5% usage, while his newest pitch is the cutter, used 3.8% of the time, primarily vs. lefty hitters. The average velocities of his pitches: four-seamer 94.1 mph, slider 87.7, changeup 89.5, knuckle curve 81.4 and cutter 89.6.

The cutter replaced a sinker that Canning had been using.

His strikeout rate rebounded from a dismal 17.6% in 2024 to 21.3% with the Mets, but still a tick down from his career mark of 22.1%. However, his walks jumped up to 10.7% in 2025 after being at 8.9% the year before. Canning's career walk rate is 8.7%.

While still giving up a lot of hard hits (in the 11th percentile), he is pretty decent at inducing grounders (87th percentile).

Year	Pitch Type	#	# RHB	# LHB	%	MPH	PA	AB	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	SO	BBE	BA	XBA	SLG	XSLG	WOBA	XWOBA	EV	LA	Spin	Ext.	Whiff%	PutAway%
2025	Four Seamer	471	233	238	35.1	94.1	83	72	18	11	3	0	4	22	51	.250	.245	.458	.540	.348	.373	90.9	15	2149	6.1	19.3	18.0
2025	Slider	422	239	183	31.4	87.7	123	112	31	22	5	1	3	27	85	.277	.263	.420	.447	.333	.338	90.2	3	2742	5.9	33.5	18.5
2025	Changeup	312	114	198	23.2	89.5	101	92	18	16	1	0	1	17	75	.196	.252	.239	.355	.234	.300	91.2	4	1486	5.8	22.1	16.0
2025	Knuckle Curve	87	38	49	6.5	81.4	13	12	1	1	0	0	0	3	9	.083	.169	.083	.284	.121	.231	86.1	20	2508	5.8	25.8	12.0
2025	Cutter	51	5	46	3.8	89.6	7	4	2	1	1	0	0	1	3	.500	.346	.750	.434	.601	.490	83.8	41	2434	5.9	20.0	16.7
2024	Four Seamer	1069	494	575	37.3	93.4	259	223	56	27	11	2	16	33	196	.251	.270	.534	.533	.366	.379	92.1	23	2118	6.1	14.8	12.0
2024	Changeup	765	260	505	26.7	88.6	229	212	55	39	10	1	5	38	176	.259	.245	.387	.381	.303	.299	87.1	7	1770	5.8	28.8	17.4
2024	Slider	690	391	299	24.1	87.7	182	162	46	34	5	0	7	49	115	.284	.248	.444	.401	.346	.317	91.2	6	2672	5.9	33.1	20.9
2024	Knuckle Curve	307	138	169	10.7	80.5	56	48	13	9	2	0	2	10	39	.271	.260	.438	.431	.347	.342	88.8	22	2377	5.8	24.1	14.9
2024	Sinker	38	27	11	1.3	92.9	12	11	4	3	0	0	1	0	11	.364	.376	.636	.814	.451	.530	92.4	12	1975	6.2	0.0	0.0
2023	Four Seamer	724	386	338	34.7	94.7	150	136	32	17	4	1	10	40	97	.235	.237	.500	.517	.340	.346	92.0	25	2138	6.1	28.1	19.1
2023	Slider	624	395	229	29.9	88.4	169	157	41	32	7	0	2	56	101	.261	.220	.344	.308	.292	.263	89.4	5	2728	5.9	34.0	22.6
2023	Changeup	443	181	262	21.3	90.2	139	127	27	18	5	1	3	26	101	.213	.246	.339	.407	.274	.314	89.3	3	1810	5.8	24.8	15.4
2023	Knuckle Curve	279	136	143	13.4	81.8	51	48	13	5	2	1	5	9	40	.271	.258	.667	.582	.390	.355	93.9	24	2406	5.9	25.2	19.6
2023	Sinker	14	9	5	0.7	94.9	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	3	.333	.337	1.333	1.228	.675	.646	94.3	28	2126	6.1	14.3	0.0
2021	Four Seamer	435	218	217	40.4	93.6	102	85	21	9	5	1	6	18	67	.247	.265	.541	.537	.387	.396	94.1	28	2267	6.0	20.8	17.0
2021	Slider	291	237	54	27.0	88.2	89	83	21	12	4	1	4	31	53	.253	.201	.470	.339	.317	.250	88.0	3	2638	5.7	39.4	26.5
2021	Changeup	230	57	173	21.4	89.1	65	58	16	13	2	0	1	10	48	.276	.301	.362	.412	.319	.352	86.6	12	1870	5.7	34.8	16.4
2021	Knuckle Curve	119	53	66	11.1	81.8	20	19	6	3	1	0	2	3	16	.316	.177	.684	.357	.429	.247	83.9	31	2324	5.7	28.6	13.6
2021	Cutter	1	1	0	0.1	90.7	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	1	1	1.000	.982	4.000	3.927	2.007	1.969	110.1	28	2220	5.5	0.0	0.0
2020	Four Seamer	392	219	173	40.6	92.8	96	82	25	13	6	1	5	18	68	.305	.235	.585	.483	.389	.342	88.9	28	2352	5.8	16.0	17.1
2020	Slider	221	134	87	22.9	86.5	61	56	10	6	3	0	1	27	29	.179	.142	.286	.243	.237	.207	88.6	12	2597	5.6	47.1	28.1
2020	Cutter	192	123	69	19.9	88.6	37	30	9	6	1	0	2	4	26	.300	.283	.533	.549	.416	.419	87.3	8	2375	5.7	30.8	10.8
2020	Changeup	149	47	102	15.4	87.9	41	39	8	6	1	1	0	6	33	.205	.289	.282	.432	.231	.328	88.7	14	1741	5.5	22.6	19.4
2020	Knuckle Curve	11	6	5	1.1	81.5	3	3	2	2	0	0	1	2	.667	.576	.667	.703	.588	.563	84.6	20	2448	5.5	16.7	20.0
2019	Four Seamer	656	314	342	42.3	93.9	155	133	35	18	7	2	8	35	101	.263	.227	.526	.476	.364	.336	89.7	28	2335	5.8	22.9	20.2
2019	Slider	448	339	109	28.9	88.9	123	109	25	17	5	0	3	37	74	.229	.212	.358	.327	.285	.273	87.1	10	2506	5.5	45.2	25.3
2019	Curveball	249	80	169	16.0	82.0	51	49	9	4	4	0	1	15	34	.184	.179	.327	.301	.229	.222	84.8	7	2425	5.2	34.0	23.4
2019	Changeup	199	46	153	12.8	89.1	55	50	11	6	1	2	2	9	41	.220	.266	.440	.489	.306	.350	85.5	10	1671	5.6	28.2	20.9

What Should Griffin Canning's Role Be In 2026?

Canning is clearly a favorite for a rotation spot, but his status for Opening Day or even April will depend on how the recovery of his left Achilles is going. There is a possibility that he beings the season on the 15-day injured list, or even the 60-day if his rehab process is taking longer than expected.

With the top three of right-handers Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove set, pending any setbacks to Musgrove's return from Tommy John surgery, a full-strength Canning and another new acquisition, right-hander German Marquez, certainly put right-hander Randy Vasquez's spot in the rotation in jeopardy.

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