One Takeaway From Each Game During Padres' Slow Start on Offense

[TomCent]

After the first week of the San Diego Padres' 2026 season, we can say that two things are true: The club's scuffles at the plate this spring were real, and they were clear signs that the offense is lacking.

San Diego put up 19 runs in a six-game homestand (3.17 per game). Seven of the runs were scored in the finale, a 7-1 victory gift-wrapped by the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday. The overall team slash line was .202/.280/.301.

By themselves, six-game sample sizes are insignificant. Cold streaks and hot streaks cancel each other out. But this sample did not happen in isolation. It was a reminder that these Padres have had trouble scoring runs.

Stats and circumstances can support or refute that statement, but the pessimistic indicators from the first week are more persuasive. Here are the six strongest, one per game:

1. This year's lineup is almost the same as last year's

The club finished 18th in MLB in runs last year, and all the regulars from the end of the season, save for Luis Arraez, are back this year. Losing Arraez was not devastating -- he produced a 104 wRC+ and hit eight home runs in 2025 -- but there was no clear upgrade made in the offseason. It might be utility man Sung Mun Song, once he's healed from his oblique injury. He slugged .530 and hit a career-high 26 home runs last year in the KBO. It would be tough to bet on him repeating that as an MLB rookie, though.  

2. Will the power come on?

San Diego hit three home runs on the homestand. Ramon Laureano slugged two and Jackson Merrill hit the other one. The long ball was lacking last year, too -- the Padres finished 28th in homers and Manny Machado led the club with just 27. Maybe Merrill gets close to that figure with a full season of health. Maybe Laureano keeps it going. Maybe Song makes a difference. Then again, that's too many maybes this early in the year.

3. The quality of the opponent did not matter much

The hitters faced Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Landen Roupp, Logan Webb and Adrian Houser in the first six games. Skubal (naturally) and Roupp (surprisingly) had the best outings -- no earned runs over six innings each -- but overall, opposing starters allowed 12 runs (seven earned) over 33 2/3 innings, and none of them gave up more than three. The Padres failed to jump on a starter early and seize control of a game.

4. The lineup leans too far to the right

The team's handedness imbalance showed up in a key split: the Padres produced an 85 wRC+ against right-handers in their first six games, 23rd in the majors. Merrill, Jake Cronenworth and Gavin Sheets are the club's primary left-handed bats. Song will be a fourth once he's activated. Besides them, the only lefty swinger is switch-hitting backup outfielder Bryce Johnson. There isn't room for another one right now with the club committed to Luis Campusano, Miguel Andujar and Nick Castellanos as backups.

5. The contact was inconsistent

This is a mixed indicator, but mostly a negative one. Statcast had the Padres seventh in hard-hit rate after six games at 43.0 percent, but also 13th in average exit velocity at 89.2 mph and 29th in barrel rate at 4.2 percent. The whiff rate was 17th at 27.9 percent. Lots of numbers there, but they point to one thing: the Padres didn't do enough to put pressure on defenses with batted balls.

6. There has already been a shakeup

First-year manager Craig Stammen altered the batting order Wednesday to get guys going. The order looked closer to what it was against left-handers Skubal and Valdez. Tatis was in the leadoff spot against a right-hander for the first time, and Cronenworth was dropped from first to sixth. Stammen also flipped Machado and Merrill in the third and fourth spots. There's no conclusive data that changing the order will change the hitters, but a productive new alignment can be good for the team vibes.

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