Xander Bogaerts' Early-Season Struggles Come From A Shocking Lack of Hitting Maturity

[Randy Holt]

Even with the offense beginning to show signs of life in Boston over the weekend, the San Diego Padres have begun 2026 as one of Major League Baseball’s worst offensive teams. They rank just 26th in the league in runs (32) scored across nine games, with the 28th-ranked isolated power (.116) and 27th-ranked wRC+ (79). While almost no one – this side of Ramón Laureano, at least – has been immune to the struggle, Xander Bogaerts finds himself in a familiar position as a scuffling bat in an underperforming offense. 

In 2025, Bogaerts was off to such a brutal offensive struggle that by June we wondered if his contract was purely a sunk cost with few redeeming qualities. He was a below-average offensive player for the first two months, posting wRC+ figures of 93 and 83 in April and May of last year, respectively. There was no power to speak of over that stretch, with only his baserunning, in the form of 11 steals, propping him up toward any semblance of positive value. 

The story to begin 2026 hasn’t been all that different. Through the nearly 40 plate appearances he's accrued prior to the Pirates series, his wRC+ sits at just 48 with a .200/.243/.257 line. The baserunning skills that were on display haven’t had the ability to manifest in such a small sample that also features such infrequent appearances on the bases. Despite the fact that the sample is that small, it’s reignited fears over not only Bogaerts’ longer-term viability in the lineup, but his present value. 

While Bogaerts’ production has been, undeniably, poor thus far, whether or not those fears are valid this early on is a different discussion.

As a general practice, a nine-game sample isn’t enough to have any concern land as legitimate, even for a player whose standing as a regular contributor is on shaky ground. If there’s good process in the underlying numbers, then it becomes even easier to stave off those concerns until the sample actually grows. 

For Bogaerts, the value lies not only in his baserunning, but in his plate approach. Even through the struggles, he’s been adept at avoiding strikeouts and finding his way on base. His walk rate in 2025 (8.7 percent) was his highest since 2022, and he continued to make contact at a rate around 80 percent. The strikeout rate remained very solid, checking in in the 76th percentile (17.0 percent) league-wide. When you combine all of that with average defense, that’s a workable player (even if he falls short of his contract-related expectations). In 2026, though, we’re only seeing some of that so far.

Bogaerts’ 84.1 Contact% would represent the best mark of his career. In general, that would seem to qualify as a positive. Additionally, his 15.9 percent whiff rate currently resides in the 87th percentile and serves as a decrease of about five percent from last year’s rate. He’s also cutting out strikeouts completely at this point, with a mere 8.1 K% that sits up in the 96th percentile. It’s an unsustainable figure, but his previous career-best in that respect was also back in 2015 (15.4 percent), so it’s quite a deviation from what we’re used to seeing from him there. Where we start to run into an issue is in actual swing decisions. For example, a 5.4 percent walk rate would represent Bogaerts’ lowest since 2025. 

There's also some deeper-rooted problems to worry about. One is the fact that Bogaerts is actually chasing pitches at a far higher rate. His 29.1 percent chase rate thus far is nearly six percent higher than it was last year. His overall Swing% is up about five percent. He’s making contact within that aggression, yes. However, both his barrel rate (3.1 percent) and his hard hit rate (31.3 percent) are down quite a bit. The Barrel% is less than half of what it was last year while the Hard-Hit% is down roughly eight percent. It’s one thing to get balls in play, but sacrificing quality of contact is how you end up with a batting average on balls in play of just .219. 

This is where the primary issues lie. Bogaerts appears to be sacrificing quality of contact for just any old contact. Merely putting balls in play doesn’t tend to work at this level. Unless you’re a player in possession of a profile that manifests hard contact all over the zone, then there needs to be a certain degree of finesse in the approach that yields positive results. Historically, that's the type of player we’ve seen Bogaerts be. However, there’s something in his newfound aggression that is pinning down his ability to be productive. 

Fortunately, the sample remains tiny. It’s hard to get too wrapped up in anything he’s doing (or not doing), but the early aggression does seem to be indicative of why he’s facing the struggles that he is. It’s by no means a permanent development, but one on which we’ll have to keep a close eye as the sample begins to grow in April.

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