How 2026 Padres Stack Up In A Deep National League

[Brendan Dentino]

If the baseball season was compressed into the NFL’s, then it would be Week 3 in MLB. That’s plenty of time to get excited (Cincinnati Reds fans), panic (New York Mets fans), and look to next year (every AL West fan).

How, then, should San Diego Padres fans feel about their team? Well, not to sound hyperbolic, but they should be lighting candles in their shrines to president of baseball operations A.J. Preller. 

At 15-7, the Pads possess the third-best record in baseball, behind only the surprising Atlanta Braves and the familiar Los Angeles Dodgers. In fact, the Padres sit just one game behind the Dodgers, MLB’s best team, in the National League West standings. That’s because the Padres have had little interest in losing lately. They’re 9-1 in their last ten games, and have lost just three times in April.

You can thank an elite pitching staff for that. The Padres are fifth in MLB in team earned run average, and Mason Miller alone gives them arguably the best bullpen in baseball. His ERA is 0.00, which, if you round down to the nearest whole number, comes out to being pretty good. The Friars’ staff is outside the top-five in strikeouts, walks, and WHIP, but they’re tied for the fewest home runs allowed. They let runners on base, but deny the big hit. The rotation, especially, has been a revelation, given that, among Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and Yu Darvish, $52 million in starting pitching is either injured or mulling retirement.

Consequently, the Padres are not only demolishing their preseason ZiPS projection of 83 wins, but they are also on pace to win 110 games, which would far exceed the franchise record of 98, set in the magical 1998 World Series year. That almost certainly won’t happen. Teams have won 110 games just six times in the modern era, and the Padres' middling offense is why five teams in the National League have a better run differential so far this season. Their current performance indicates a team that should be two losses worse. 

Baseball Reference gives the Pads an 85% chance at making the playoffs, which would likely come through a Wild Card spot, given the Dodgers’ NL West dominance. Wasn’t that always the realistic goal for this team? The Padres’ payroll has regressed every year since late owner Peter Seidler’s death in 2023, and Preller has had to balance expensive, high-end talent with inexpensive young players and journeymen. He’s seemed to crack that code yet again this season. The advanced statistics indicate that San Diego will come down to earth, but Preller's roster machinations have established a high floor for the team.

The problem, if there is one, is that they play in the wrong league. The Dodgers are the Dodgers, the NL Central doesn’t have a losing team, and surely, the Philadelphia Phillies and Mets can’t be bad as they have been playing. (They’re a combined 2-18 in their last twenty. Oof.) The competition for the NL’s three Wild Card spots will be vicious. Just to fill out the roster, let alone to compete, the Padres need a starting pitcher or two. They also need their best, most expensive hitters—Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, et al.—to hit a little more frequently.

But other teams have their own issues, no other team has lost fewer games this month, and, as the trade deadline gets closer and closer, no other team has the mad scientist that is A.J. Preller.

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