The Padres Are Winning In Spite Of Their Offense

[Randy Holt]

It isn’t a surprise that, as we approach the end of April, the San Diego Padres find themselves in contention in a tough National League West. As of April 23, they’re tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers atop the division and two games ahead of the third-place Arizona Diamondbacks. There was always a certain degree of upside that existed with this team, despite an offseason that was predicated around the volume of additions rather than  the quality of them.

What is surprising, however, is how the Padres have managed to navigate their early schedule. Because it isn’t happening on the strength of the offense, where the star power exists on the roster. It’s coming from everywhere else. 

The Padres rank 23rd in the league in runs scored (100). They rank 18th in the league in batting average (.229), 25th in on-base percentage (.306), and 22nd in isolated power (.134). The collective is a below-average unit by a wRC+ that sits 23rd. Among lineup regulars, only Ramón Laureano and Xander Bogaerts sit comfortably above average by that latter category (each at 116). Beyond those two, it’s a lineup that doesn’t strike out a lot, but doesn’t do a whole lot else to drum up offense. 

Instead, the strength of this team lies in the other two phases of the game. They’re seventh in the league in whole staff ERA (3.43), second in strikeout rate (25.2 percent), 10th in walk rate (8.9 percent), and second in hard-hit rate (35.4 percent). The relief corps has been as good as advertised (3.06 ERA) while the starting staff has been better than expected (3.76 ERA). Defensively, the team ranks sixth in Fielding Run Value (8) and 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (also 8), indicating a group that is also better than might’ve been expected. 

Pitching and defense will get you places over the course of a baseball season. But you also have to score some runs in support of those two performance areas. Given some of those massive offensive shortcomings, is there anything they’re actually doing well in order to get enough runs across the plate in support of their two areas of success? 

The unfortunate answer to that is: not really. Each of the runners-on or runners-in-scoring-position scenarios are illustrative of a team struggling to find its offensive footing. And while the team ranks ninth in steals, they’re also decidedly average (ranked 17th) in baserunning value. The little bit of extra they’re getting in the swipes game may certainly help, but it’s not as if there’s a particular split or element on the margins that’s allowing them to score runs. This is just a matter of a team scraping across just as much as they need. Luckily for them, the pitching and defense have each been more than good enough to compensate.

If there’s good news for the Padres, it’s that they’re performing a bit better than the actual outcomes may indicate. Their disappointing 21st-ranked batting average on balls in play is furthered by expected statistics that show that they should be at least somewhat better. Their xBA (.251) is 22 points higher than the actual figure, with a xSLG (.411) that is 48 points higher and a xwOBA (.327) that 25 points higher. They should be better. The process indicates that. 

Despite the fact that they’re not overly patient – indicated by a mid-tier walk rate and below-average pitches per plate appearance (3.89) – they’re making quality contact. They’re third in the league in Hard-Hit% (45.1) and 12th in Barrel% (8.4). That all comes with quite a bit of groundball contact (44.7 percent), though, which is likely feeding into some of their trouble finding fortune on balls in play. Nevertheless, this is a team with visibly better offensive chops than we’ve seen to date.

Which is encouraging, because there’s a very fine threading of a needle taking place. In recent years, we’ve seen the pitching and the offense not quite link up for this team. One would falter while the other would succeed. This year, the two are a bit more in sync and matching up their quality performances on a given night. That’s not the kind of trend that carries over a full season, however. It should also be noted that outside of the regular performers, this isn’t a team built to sustain long-term defensive success. 

Also considering the composition of the starting staff, one imagines that some of these areas of success are going to dry up at some point during the summer, if not sooner. Is there an increased patience necessary here as the team tries to create their own luck? Or is it a matter of hoping things even out more naturally as the season progresses? Either way, the Padres better hope that one or the other manifests and yields some sort of offensive ascent, because this isn’t a team constructed to exist on the margins, regardless of what their early success may try and tell us. 

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