Padres’ Lack of Speed Hasn't Stopped Their Steals, but Is It Holding Back Their Offense?

[Randy Holt]

The San Diego Padres are not a fast baseball team when it comes to moving around the bases. Anyone who has watched Manny Machado sidle up the basepaths would not be surprised by that fact. But while Machado represents the most noticeable element of the team’s collective lack of speed, he’s hardly the only sole representative in this department. 

In fact, when it comes to the broader major-league picture, only a trio of Padres would come highly recommended in their ability to scoot on the basepaths: Jake Cronenworth, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. Those three sit in the 91st, the 89th, and the 85th percentiles, respectively, in sprint speed. You’d have to trek down the 71st to find the next-closest Padre in Ramón Laureano before you saw another name from this roster. 

That there are so few fleet-footed members of the 2026 Padres doesn’t feel particularly surprising. This is a veteran-laden roster that is heavily comprised of first base/corner outfield types. However, the actual distribution of spring speed does paint a rather sobering picture of what the group is able to do on the basepaths: 

In the above visual, Luis Campusano represents the slower of the two catchers indicated, while Ty France is the slower of the two first basemen. Nick Castellanos and Bryce Johnson, respectively, are represented as part of the right field group. Ultimately, that is a contingent that falls quite heavily below average in matters of spring speed, or, at best, decidedly average. 

Interestingly, though, it’s not something that is proving to be too much of a surface-level detriment. We can see where the issue is manifesting for them, however.

Statcast’s Run Value illustrates the value of the baserunner, taking into account runs created via steals or extra bases taken. The Padres actually rank ninth in the league in this metric, checking in with a run value of two. Where things get complex is in where that run value emerges. In establishing run value via extra-bases taken, the Padres’ ranking falls all the way down to 17th where their run value is zero. Instead, the run value they do have is rooted in their ability to steal bases, where they rank tied for second. That’s where the impact of the team’s collective (lack of) speed comes into focus. 

In the breakdown of run value via extra bases taken, the Padres are 26th in advances (6), 13th in runners thrown out (-2), and fourth in runners held up (-4). That’s where a team’s lack of speed is going to hurt you. It leads to conservative tendencies on the basepaths and a 23rd-place ranking in advance attempts overall (102). You’re not going to have a Manny Machado or a Ty France or even a Nick Castellanos try to grab an extra base. Such a conservative approach helps to buoy them in the rankings a bit in avoiding throw-outs and makes holds the more logical approach, but it certainly isn’t generating much in actually producing value. 

The steals game, meanwhile, is where the Padres are proving effective. They rank eighth in the league in steals (41), with Tatis (10), Jackson Merrill (8), and Xander Bogaerts (5) leading the way. An even dozen players have at least one steal to their credit this year. As a result, they’re fifth in league in run value added via steals of second (1), and seven in the league in run value in steals of third (0). They have six more attempted steals of second versus the average (which ranks fifth) and two more attempted steals of third against the average (which ranks sixth). Their 12th-place standing in attempted steals is indicative of a certain efficiency in this phase of the game.

It’s important to note the difference in how sprint speed impacts the two sides of the Padres’ run value. A runner doesn’t have to be fast to steal bases. While it can be a positive factor, the concept of a read and a jump also have a bearing on a successful steal. The taking of extra bases, however, requires less on the instinct front and more on the ability to get around the bases with a certain degree of speed. The Padres visibly have the former but lack the latter. 

Given the two’s standing in opposition with one another, it’s hard not to feel like they cancel each other out. The Padres aren’t hurt in their ability to score because they can get runners into scoring position with the steal. They’re also held back some by a relative absence of extra bases being taken upon contact. At the end of the day, it’s the byproduct of the team’s roster construction and something that will likely be maintained moving forward. 

For a team that finds offensive production quite challenging on any given night, that's not the most satisfying answer to give, but it's one the Friars will have to live with.

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