The Padres’ Approach To Their Rotation Looks Like An Early Failure

[Randy Holt]

Even as we reach the end of May, the San Diego Padres are, somewhat surprisingly, continuing to prove their meddle in 2026. Despite an offense that continues to linger around the middle of the pack and a pitching staff racking up injuries but not innings, they’ve been hanging around with the Los Angeles Dodgers at or near the top of the National League West. If they could gain some stability in the rotation, they could further fortify themselves as a repeat contender in the NL. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case quite yet. 

Facing an uncertain ownership future (that has since become more certain) and some payroll peril wrought by repeated long-term position player contracts from A.J. Preller, the Padres were forced into various band-aid solutions this past winter. That approach drove their additions to the lineup – in the form of one-year or minor-league deals – but has become more glaring in the rotation where the same philosophy applied. 

After bringing Michael King back on what is essentially a one-year pact, the Padres added each of Germán Márquez, Walker Buehler, and Griffin Canning on either one-year or minor-league, non-guaranteed deals. That trio joined Matt Waldron and JP Sears as candidates to fill out the back end of the rotation (as well as Marco Gonzales & Triston McKenzie as rotation candidates in camp). It was a group short on ceiling but also without a clear floor given the blend of past-prime skill sets and variable performance. So, it should come as no surprise that the results thus far have been exceedingly mediocre for San Diego. 

The Padres rank 18th in fWAR accrued by starting pitching (3.3), with an ERA that sits 22nd (4.47) and a FIP that reads slightly better at 4.01 (15th). Most concerning, though, is the fact that their 241.2 innings from the rotation ranks just 25th. As of the middle of the month, they’d been outscored 69-35 in the first three innings of games in 2026. While the offense itself is part of the issue in that latter number, the absence of longevity from much of the starting staff looms as the larger problem moving forward. 

It’s hard to think of an example of this more on display than on May 14 in Milwaukee. Griffin Canning needed 43 pitches to get through the first inning against the Brewers, walking four consecutive hitters and leaving his team in a 3-0 hole before it was done. Through his first three starts, he was averaging less than four innings per outing with an ERA that sat (deceptively) over 10 and a walk rate that checked in over 16 percent. It’s still a small sample for him, but the issues aren’t limited to Canning either. Márquez has a 5.76 ERA across six starts with an even worse FIP (6.65) and a strikeout rate of only 14.8 percent against a 9.4 percent walk rate. Waldron has an 8.49 ERA and FIP over five through roughly 23 innings of work. 

The issues have become more glaring in the absence of Nick Pivetta and repeated setbacks for Joe Musgrove. Had the Padres had their full arsenal of safe options among the starting candidates, this would be far less of a conversation. But outside of Michael King and Randy Vásquez, there isn’t a lot of stability to be found. It remains to be seen how much Lucas Giolito will help in that regard, but it seems as if the Padres will be in need of help regardless.

Ultimately, the issue lies not in what the rotation woes are doing to the team at large, but what it could mean for the bullpen. Padre relievers have already been asked to throw over 200 innings, ranking seventh in the league. That’s an intense volume at this point in the year. Bullpens become more crucial as the season wears on, and the Padres will certainly want their top arms to remain as fresh as possible if they’re to remain in contention for the stretch run. 

Whether or not that can happen, however, is an entire mystery. Each of Márquez (even if currently on the IL) and Waldron appear on the shakiest ground. Canning has been mostly fine, if not at the mercy of terrible command and woeful defense. However, the Padres simply cannot sustain their success with only two starters offering steady outings. Perhaps Giolito will help to quell those concerns. If not, questions about this team’s long-term viability with such a patchwork rotation will continue to persist.

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