Why Going All-In At Trade Deadline Was the Right Decision for Padres

[N.B. Lindberg]

It turns out, rumors of a San Diego Padres teardown were greatly exaggerated. Entering deadline day at 58-54, the Padres, owners of a negative run differential, pulled off two massive trades to land Robbie Ray and Casey Mize and, in one day, completely revitalize their rotation. Regardless of what you think of the man, the gall of A.J. Preller stands in stark contrast to the overly calculated character of so many modern general managers, and no matter what fate is in store for the team, they made the right choice to go all-in. 

The prudent thing for the Padres would have been to trade away their expiring contracts, dangle Mason Miller, and restock the farm for what could be a cold winter. All you have to do is look at the Orioles to see the path not taken. Both organizations were about two games out from the final wild card spot, but one team traded their face of the franchise, along with their starting left fielder and their best reliever, for a massive prospect haul, while the Padres added two pitchers with sub-3.10 ERAs at the cost of their second- and-third-ranked prospects. So, why did the Friars make the right decision? Well, because this team is built for now. 

First and foremost, the Padres possess the one luxury that is only befitting a playoff team: an absolutely nails bullpen. They lead baseball in reliever fWAR at 6.0, are sixth in ERA (3.66), first in xERA (3.28), and fifth in FIP (3.76), but even that undersells them. 

Due to the Padres’ underwhelming starting pitching, their bullpen has been pushed hard. The 489.1 innings they’ve gotten from the pen are the third-most in baseball, which means more innings for their lower-tier arms. For as good as the quartet of Mason Miller, Bradgley Rodriguez, Adrian Morejon, and Jeremiah Estrada are, they can’t pitch every night, and you’d still need your starter to hit five innings to line up the four horsemen of the Padocalypse.

The top of the Padres’ bullpen is built for October, but the middle and back are far less effective. The best illustration of this is that Miller, Rodriguez, Morejon, and Estrada have combined to produce 6.3 of the Padres’ 6.0 fWAR out of the pen. You do the math.

The addition of Mize and Ray will not only bolster a starting rotation in desperate need of quality innings, but it’ll also improve the best bullpen in baseball. If Joe Musgrove and Nick Pivetta can come back and simply fill in at the back of the rotation, the Padres could suddenly have one of the better pitching situations in the National League. 

Now, pitching is only half the game, and the Padres’ position players have not held up their end of the bargain. If you had told me that Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, and Xander Bogaerts all had sub-100 wRC+’s 112 games into the season, I would have assumed the season ended sometime in June. Yet, despite three of their four most talented position players having absolutely awful offensive seasons, the Friars are right in the thick of it, which gives them a surprising amount of upward mobility. 

Projection systems are slow to catch sudden changes in ability, which is a feature, not a bug. It’s entirely possible that Machado, Bogaerts, and Merrill are cooked, but I also don’t buy it. Machado is a future Hall of Famer, Bogaerts is a future Hall of Very Good member, and Merrill was once one of the most promising young players in the league, and he won’t turn 24 until next April. Every single projection system thinks they’ll hit not just a bit better, but a lot better.

ZIPs, which is the most pessimistic, still thinks the trio will collectively improve their wRC+ by 14 points, which is huge. Machado’s wRC+ of 97 currently ranks 114th among qualified batters. Simply adding 14 points would get him to 111 and vault him up to 70th. On top of that, the turnaround has already begun. 

Since June 1, Machado has a wRC+ of 120 and Merrill’s comes in at 106. There’s no reason to believe they can’t go higher, and if Bogaert’s can join the party, the Padres should have a playoff-worthy offense. Throw in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s rediscovery of his power stroke, and the Padres we thought we’d see are coming back into focus. 

The final piece of the puzzle is how uncertain the Padres’ future is. Machado and Bogaerts will be in their age-34 seasons in 2027, and the potential for a new CBA could absolutely hamstring them. While I doubt the next CBA will actually usher in much change, the Padres would be hit extremely hard if more stringent caps and penalties are added to the luxury tax offenders. 

Unlike the Dodgers, the Padres don’t have the financial resources to blow by the luxury tax while incurring increasingly draconian penalties. While everyone wants to kneecap the richest teams, those same penalties absolutely obliterate any mid-or-small-market team with the courage to spend. Simply put, a new CBA could necessitate a fire sale.

The Padres and A.J. Preller have been trying to win a World Series, and 2026 is probably their last best chance with this core. People love to celebrate a calculated retreat and will prospect clutch until their knuckles are blue, but the game is about glory. This isn’t war. Dying with your sword in hand should be the expectation because everyone still gets to go home. 

The Padres are going for it not because it’s the smartest thing to do, but because it’s the right thing to do. Your window isn’t open forever, but it is now, and after their deadline, it might be as open as it’ll be for quite some time.

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