Why Padres' Third Straight Playoff Appearance Is Their Most Impressive Yet

[Randy Holt]

In winning their second of three against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night, the San Diego Padres did something they'd never done in the franchise's history: reach the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. While seeding is still to-be-determined, they'll be one of the National League's three Wild Card clubs in 2026.

On the surface, it may not seem like a particularly impressive accomplishment. Three years in the grand scheme of baseball? Not the biggest of potatoes. But the small field of actual playoff teams, even in the era of expanded Wild Card entrants relative to their professional counterparts makes it more of a rarity than one might initially realize.

Sure, you have the historic 14-year streaks credited to the Braves and the Dodgers, or the New York Yankees that have done it four, five, six, or 13 times in a row (yes, those all are separate streaks). There are a few prestige organizations that serve as outliers. Generally, though, teams tend to reach their absolute ceiling at four or five. The Red Sox haven't done it more than three times in a row. The Cubs have only done it four times once. The Reds haven't done it more than twice. Those are three of the oldest organizations in the sport. So, three does actually represent an accomplishment in itself, especially for an organization that has only been around since 1969. 

Which means that there's plenty of merit in the accomplishment itself. At the same time, the Padres' particular set of circumstances allows us to take it one step further and declare that this is their finest work yet across this trio of postseason appearances. 

The 2024 team won 93 games. That was five games back of the Dodgers and tied for the third-best record in the National League. They had a top-five offense by wRC+ (111) and a top-five pitching staff by fWAR (19.6). That was a team much more fortified than this year's group, with an offense that featured above-average seasons from Jurickson Profar & Luis Arráez in addition to strong years from the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and rookie Jackson Merrill. 

Last year's squad was not quite as complete. Nevertheless, they won 90 games, secured a Wild Card spot, and were three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Their offensive production landed much more middle-of-the-road, but their pitching staff's 3.64 ERA ranked third in all of baseball behind Dylan Cease, a healthy Nick Pivetta, and a bullpen that featured Robert Suárez, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam, along with trade-deadline acquisition Mason Miller.

Both of those teams featured a fair bit of expectation in their projection. The 2024 team excelled on both sides of the ball, while the 2025 team likely fell short given injuries to Jackson Merrill and some struggles in the starting staff. The depth as a whole, however, was never really in question with either of those groups, and A.J. Preller was comfortable enough with their positioning that he felt comfortable being aggressive at the deadline on both occasions. 

Which sets this year's roster apart in a couple of different respects. For one, there wasn't a ton of expectation attached to the 2026 Padres. ZiPS, for example, had them finishing in third in the NL West. The 83 wins projected there were the same as ESPN, who had the Padres as the 16th-ranked team in the league before Opening Day. They were also among the teams PECOTA 'disliked' for 2026, with a projection of 82 wins. None of this is surprising considering their circumstances. 

Having let names like Cease, Arráez, and Ryan O'Hearn depart in free agency, budget constraints forced the Padres into upgrading their roster largely via one-year and non-guaranteed contracts. The lineup was filled out with the likes of Miguel Andujar, Nick Castellanos, and Ty France. While the bullpen remained strong, their rotation featured names like Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, and Germán Márquez, with Joe Musgrove's timeline in his return from Tommy John surgery remaining unclear from the outset. 

Many of those moves didn't work. Castellanos struggled and was designated for assignment early. Reserve outfielder Bryce Johnson didn't hang around long, either. Canning & Márquez each lost starting gigs in a wildly depleted rotation.

Some, however, panned out beautifully. France has been excellent. Buehler has been a stabilizer as a lock for five innings in a starting role. They've been able to fill in a vacancy in left field courtesy of the likes of Luis Rengifo, Samad Taylor, and Dustin Harris. 

Also working against the Padres is the fact that they faced a number of injuries. Pivetta was lost early for most of the year. Musgrove still hasn't returned. Jake Cronenworth and Luis Campusano each missed extended time. Ramón Laureano hasn't been seen since May 30th. The upstart Rengifo tore his ACL in August. Andujar & Gavin Sheets each remain out (albeit with imminent returns). They've lost relievers, including Adam & Jeremiah Estrada, to multiple IL stints. 

Between the construction of the roster and the various injury woes the team faced (to say nothing of the team's offensive struggles that stretched across May & June), it wasn't surprising to see them where they were standings-wise in the days leading up to the trade deadline. On July 27, one week before the deadline, they were 53-53. Five teams were ahead of them in the NL wild card picture. At that particular moment in time, though, a switch was flipped. 

The offense began to hum a bit. The pitching staff stabilized, which was expected to be further compounded positively by the deadline acquisitions of Robbie Ray & Casey Mize. While there are a number of intricacies that have gone into their success, the Padres boast the league's best record since July 27 at 36-17. The offense has cooked, the pitching has done just enough out of the rotation, and the ever-reliable bullpen has continued to support all of it. 

There's an unquantifiable element within all of this in Craig Stammen's management. Some of his choices can be measured, including the team's pre-deadline (and more recent) embracing of "pitching chaos." The rest, though, is all about vibes, and it appears that Stammen's maintained a steady presence in a clubhouse that had plenty of reasons to call it good on 2026 well before the calendar actually indicated that the end was near.

Considering the lackluster expectations, the half-hearted roster construction wrought by budget issues, and the injuries the team faced along the way, this is perhaps the best work the Padres have done over these last three seasons of postseason baseball. Reaching the playoffs with this particular team in this particular season was already an accomplishment. That the organization has now done it three times in a row, something not remotely as common as we may think, indicates that this is a team in a very good place within the broader context of Major League Baseball. Especially with new ownership now in place. 

Regardless of whatever long-term contracts may be on the books or whatever other narratives may be attached to the organization, there are few franchises as enviable as the San Diego Padres. Now, they have to make that matter in the playoffs.

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