Padres' Home-Field Advantage Is the Ultimate Edge Over Cubs In Wild Card Series

[Steve Drumwright]

If things go according to plan Tuesday, nearly 45,000 San Diego Padres fans will rise from their seats in the top of the ninth inning during Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series to watch Mason Miller trot in from the bullpen to Korn’s “Blind.” It is part of his Reaper mentality that the Padres introduced to the superstar right-hander in spring training.

The atmosphere, as it usually is at Petco Park, will be of pure celebration as Miller throws his warmup pitches, knowing the Friars are just three outs away from taking a 1-0 series lead against the Chicago Cubs. It is intimidating enough to face Miller, much less with 45,000 spectators whipped up by a postseason frenzy getting more intense with every strike.

In baseball, home-field advantage is generally not a thing. But it can be in short spurts, like the best-of-three Wild Card Series.

The Padres of all teams certainly know that.

Since the best-of-three series was added for the 2022 season as the playoff field went from eight to 12 teams, the Friars have played in a Wild Card Series three of four years, missing the postseason in 2023. In each of those instances, they have been in the No. 4 vs. No. 5 series, the one between the top two wild-card teams in each league. The Padres have advanced twice, with the Cubs sending the Padres home a year ago when this same matchup happened at Wrigley Field, where things can get just as crazy as Petco Park.

Only one of those 4-5 series happened at Petco Park. That was in 2024, when the Friars swept Atlanta 2-0. The other two saw the Padres on the road as the No. 5 seed, beating the New York Mets in three games in 2022 and losing last year in three games.

The Wild Card Series still has a small sample size when it comes to history. In the four years it has been around, the 4-5 matchup has seen the home team win twice and lose twice. That echoes how the higher seed has performed in the Wild Card Series, going 4-4. (We will also note that the Wild Card Series existed in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, when 16 teams played in the postseason and the Padres won their series over the Los Angeles Dodgers at Petco Park.)

Having that raucous crowd behind them will be beneficial for the Padres for a few reasons. First, the Cubs might have trouble figuring out where they are. Since leaving Wrigley Field on Thursday, they flew to Boston for a doubleheader against the Red Sox that was necessary with a huge storm hitting the East Coast. After losing both games of that doubleheader, they flew to Florida to play the final game vs. the Red Sox at Tropicana Field, home of the Tampa Bay Rays. After the Cubs won that game, they then headed to San Diego.

Petco Park has also produced the fourth-best home record this season at 51-30, tied with none other than the Dodgers. But after a slow start, the Friars posted a 26-6 record to finish the season. It gets a little complicated how that comes about. The Padres have the third-best ERA (3.48) and tied for third-best opponent batting average (.223). Surprisingly, the offensive numbers are on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Padres rank 21st in average (.240), 23rd in OPS (.704) and 19th in runs (4.26).

It also helps that the franchise had the second-best attendance in MLB, only behind you know who.

The Padres have done better at home in the postseason during this most sustained span of success in franchise history. They have made the playoffs a franchise best three straight seasons and five of the past seven. During that stretch, which began in 2020, the Friars are 8-3 at Petco Park, 4-7 on the road and 0-3 at a neutral site (2020). The home-field edge will be important as the Cubs are good on the road, posting a 43-38 record.

In the season series against the Cubs, the Friars did not fare well. They went 1-5, with the only win coming in the first game of the series at Petco Park to conclude April. That was a 9-7 win on April 27. Famously, the Cubs slaughtered the Padres to conclude the series at Wrigley Field 23-3 when the Friars were in the midst of their season-worst eight-game losing streak, the low point of the year.

Yes, this series will come down to how the Padres handle probable NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong and the rest of the Cubs’ offense. It will also be up to the Friars’ hitters try to take advantage of a compromised Cubs pitching staff.

But it sure can’t hurt to have 45,000 screaming members of the Friar Faithful on your side.

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