Padres-Cubs NL Wild Card Series Game 1 Matchup By The Numbers

[Steve Drumwright]

The San Diego Padres are sending out their best starting pitcher from the 2026 season to begin the NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs in a rematch of last year's postseason clash won by the Cubs.

Right-hander Michael King is the biggest lock from the Padres' rotation entering the postseason. He has a 4.13 FIP (3.21 ERA) in 32 starts and 185 innings, both career highs. The 31-year-old has had a terrific rebound season after two injuries disrupted his 2025. King's walk rate of 9.2% and strikeout rate of 21% are down from his career averages (8.6%, 25.4%), but he has made up for that by limiting hard contact and inducing more groundballs. His groundball rate of 44% is his highest since 2022 when he was a reliever with the New York Yankees, while his hard-hit percentage is down to 32.9% and line drives at 20.6%, both also below career norms (34%, 24%).

King had a streak of eight quality starts snapped in his final start of the regular season. His big second half, in addition to his 18 quality starts for the season, provided stability in a starting rotation that had been unstable up until the trade deadline. King did not face the Cubs in either of the two series between the clubs this year, with the Padres going 1-5.

The Padres' bullpen is in tremendous shape after using right-handers Randy Vasquez and Griffin Canning in Sunday's regular-season finale. Superstar closer Mason Miller, who finished tied for third in MLB in saves with 38, got an inning Saturday, as did left-hander Adrian Morejon. Those two will be relied upon heavily to get the Padres through any tight games and in the biggest situations. Right-hander Bradgley Rodriguez proved himself a valuable arm and entered a late-inning role when another right-hander, Jason Adam, went down with an injury. With Adam coming back last week, that just deepens the arsenal that manager Craig Stammen has to work with.

Those weapons will be necessary against a Cubs offense that led MLB in runs (5.25 per game) and were third in home runs. Leading that group is probable NL MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong, who posted a .280/.372/.570 slash line and an MLB-best 45 homers and 119 RBIs. Batting out of the leadoff spot, Crow-Armstrong can get the Cubs off to a quick start. He hit nine leadoff homers this season to lead MLB. He has hit 38 of his homers since the beginning of June, producing a 1.065 OPS (.302/.397/.668).

Alex Bregman and Seiya Suzuki are the other top bats for the Padres to be cautious with. Bregman, a two-time World Series champion with the Houston Astros, famously took a foul ball off his face a week ago, resulting in multiple facial fractures, then stunningly returned to play in Friday's doubleheader and went 4-for-4 with two homers in Sunday's regular-season finale. For the season, Bregman is slashing .265/.355/.464 with 28 homers and 93 RBIs in his first season with the Cubs, while Suzuki has produced a .270/.368/.473 slash line with 26 homers and 86 RBIs in the best season of his MLB career.

Michael King vs. Chicago Cubs: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Michael Conforto	L	14	11	1	0	0	1	1	3	2	.091	.286	.364	.649	0	0	0	0	0
2	Alex Bregman	R	10	8	7	2	0	0	0	2	1	.875	.900	1.125	2.025	0	0	0	0	0
3	Gabriel Arias	R	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ian Happ	B	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
5	Tyrone Taylor	R	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
6	Nico Hoerner	R	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
7	Carson Kelly	R	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.000	1.000	1.000	2.000	0	0	0	0	0
8	Seiya Suzuki	R	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/28/2026.

The Cubs will counter with left-hander Matthew Boyd. The 35-year-old had a tough start to his season with a pair of injuries, first a strained left biceps and then a torn meniscus in his left knee from a mishap at home. Once he returned in late June, Boyd had a 3.42 ERA in 17 starts. The Cubs' pitching staff in general has been decimated by injuries this year. Eight pitchers are currently on the 60-day injured list. Boyd's walk rate (7.5%) is right about where his career rate (7.3%), while his strikeout is notably down from 22.2% to 18.5%. It was 21.4% last year and 27.7% in 2024. Like King, Boyd has leaned into his defense this season with an increased groundball rate, up from 37.6% to 42.1% this year. Boyd faced the Padres once this season, a 9-7 Chicago victory June 30 at Wrigley Field. Boyd allowed three runs over five innings on eight hits and three walks with four strikeouts.

The Padres' offense has been on fire in September. Fernando Tatis Jr. has slashed .337/.413/.652 with eight of his 25 homers. Manny Machado has belted six homers while the Padres have a team slash line of .281/.346/.469 and are averaging 5.6 runs per game. Six players have driven in 10 runs or more this month, led by Machado and Jackson Merrill. The running game has also been a key to the Friars' success. Tatis and Merrill are two of only six players with 25-homer, 25-steal seasons and are the only teammates on the list. 

The Padres have only four hitters who qualify for MLB batting leaders, but that is also part of their success. Other players such as Ty France (.295/.363/.502, 21 HRs), Dustin Harris (.322/.364/.422), Samad Taylor (.316/.390/.408) and what is now a three-headed catching situation—top prospect Ethan Salas joining Luis Campusano and Freddy Fermin—have been major contributors.

Salas will make history as the youngest catcher in MLB history to appear in a postseason game. He will be 20 years, 94 days old for Game 1.

Matthew Boyd vs. San Diego Padres: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Xander Bogaerts	R	22	20	4	0	0	1	3	2	3	.200	.273	.350	.623	0	0	0	0	1
2	Manny Machado	R	20	19	9	4	0	1	5	0	3	.474	.450	.842	1.292	0	1	0	0	0
3	Ty France	R	13	10	4	1	0	0	3	1	1	.400	.538	.500	1.038	0	0	0	2	0
4	Fernando Tatis Jr.	R	12	12	3	0	0	1	2	0	2	.250	.250	.500	.750	0	0	0	0	0
5	Freddy Fermin	R	11	11	3	2	0	0	2	0	4	.273	.273	.455	.727	0	0	0	0	0
6	Jackson Merrill	L	9	9	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	.222	.222	.222	.444	0	0	0	0	0
7	Austin Hays	R	6	6	3	0	1	0	2	0	0	.500	.500	.833	1.333	0	0	0	0	0
8	Samad Taylor	R	5	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	.400	.400	.400	.800	0	0	0	0	0
9	Jase Bowen	R	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Jake Cronenworth	L	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/28/2026.

 

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