Predicting the San Diego Padres' Roster for the NL Division Series

[Steve Drumwright]

The NL Wild Card Series against the Chicago Cubs didn't test manager Craig Stammen too much, but it did get his feet wet.

When he made the call to the bullpen to get Bradgley Rodriguez up in the third inning as Nick Pivetta was encountering trouble, he showed the right mentality. That will be needed against the Milwaukee Brewers throughout the NL Division Series. The Brewers are famous for exploiting the slightest of mistakes.

The Padres' bullpen is extremely fresh, with the leverage arms pitching in Wednesday's Game 2, their only appearance since the next-to-last game of the regular season against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was a little surprising, not much though, that the Friars went with 11 pitchers and 15 position players for the best-of-three series against the Cubs.

With the Division Series a best-of-five, the Padres are likely to go up to 12 pitchers and 14 position players. We already know right-hander Randy Vasquez will be added, but do the Padres need to swap out another arm to face the Brewers? Who gets knocked out of the position players?

I take another run at predicting the Padres' roster for the upcoming series. (How did I do on the Wild Card Series projection?)

The official roster will be announced Saturday morning.

Starting Pitchers (4)

RH Michael King

RH Nick Pivetta

LH Robbie Ray

RH Walker Buehler

Analysis: This will not be the order these starters will be rolled out, but it will be the pecking order. Ray, who like Buehler and right-handed reliever David Morgan didn't pitch in the Wild Card Series, gets the Game 1 starting assignment. Depending on how deep—or, more appropriately, short—Ray goes, Buehler could be an early piggyback (think three innings for Buehler) to get to the leverage bullpen arms. This is just my theory, though. King will go in Game 2 and Pivetta in Game 3, which is back at Petco Park. Game 4 could be a replay of Game 1, with King set up for a potential Game 5. King will be counted on for another ace-like performance, although asking for another 6⅓ hitless innings would be a lot. Pivetta turned in the type of outing that was expected. Get to or through the fourth at a minimum, then turn it over to the relievers.

Relief Pitchers (8)

RH Mason Miller

LH Adrian Morejon

RH Bradgley Rodriguez

RH Jason Adam

LH Yuki Matsui

RH Randy Vasquez

RH Joe Musgrove

RH David Morgan

Analysis: After his six-inning start to end the regular season, Vasquez is back on the active roster for the Division Series. The decision with this group comes down to how many pitchers the Padres carry. Left-hander Wandy Peralta could be the odd man out as Morejon and Matsui are already in the bullpen, with Ray potentially being there for at least the first game or two. Not that Peralta is a bad option, far from it. The trust factor is just higher with others in this tremendous bullpen. Musgrove had an emotional moment when he returned after almost exactly two years out due to Tommy John surgery, but he likely won't have another soft landing in his next appearance. If he is right, which he still needs to prove, he adds yet another bullpen weapon.

Catchers (3)

RH Luis Campusano

RH Freddy Fermin

LH Ethan Salas

Analysis: I will reiterate what I said in the Wild Card Series roster prediction. Salas will be the primary catcher for every starter but King, who has been caught by Campusano for much of the season. But it was also interesting to see the quick hook that Stammen had with Salas in Game 2, bringing in Fermin defensively in the fifth inning after Salas was pinch-hit for. With the Brewers having an excellent running game just like the Padres, the Friars can't afford a track meet. Salas was 0-for-6 in the regular season on stolen-base attempts, which belies his strong arm.

Infielders (5)

RH Manny Machado

RH Xander Bogaerts

LH Jake Cronenworth

RH Ty France

LH Gavin Sheets

Analysis: No changes from what the Padres had on their roster here. I had Sung-Mun Song making the roster, but the Padres felt comfortable without Song as a defensive safety net, which is likely to apply to this round, too. Bogaerts went 4-for-8 with a homer in the Wild Card Series, which is a nice turn following his regular-season performance.

Outfielders (6)

RH Fernando Tatis Jr.

LH Jackson Merrill

LH Dustin Harris

RH Miguel Andujar

RH Samad Taylor

RH Jase Bowen

Analysis: Austin Hays started both games at designated hitter in the Wild Card Series. Andujar's return and now having an at-bat in Game 2 should set him up as the better option at DH, at least against left-handers and Hays is too similar to Andujar to carry both when an extra pitcher is needed. Also, Hays went 0-for-5 with two strikeouts vs. the Cubs. Depending on how the Padres feel about the matchups, Sheets could get the DH starts in Games 1 and 2, with Andujar in Game 3 against left-hander Robert Gasser. Tatis makes this team go. Watch out on the first pitch. If a 13th pitcher is needed, which I don't think will happen, you have to wonder if Taylor's roster spot is on the line.

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