In Hindsight, Padres' Trade Deadline Moves Landed As A Total Failure

[Randy Holt]

As Major League Baseball's 2026 trade deadline approached, there were few needs as obvious as the San Diego Padres' need for starting pitching. 

The Friars' staff was cobbled together by one-year and non-guaranteed contracts. Michael King & Nick Pivetta began the season as the only sure things in the starting five, with the remainder being comprised by a mix of spring training darling Randy Vásquez and veterans Walker Buehler, Griffin Canning, and Germán Márquez as the team awaited Joe Musgrove's return from Tommy John surgery. Of the latter trio, only Buehler held on to a role through the end of the regular season. The results were otherwise rough as Craig Stammen tried to piece together a workable rotation, especially once Pivetta landed on the injured list before April was even over.

Through July 31, the Padres managed just 4.5 innings per start with a 4.67 ERA that ranked 26th and a 4.64 FIP that sat 25th. The rotation's collective fWAR through that point in the calendar sat at just 4.2 (also 25th). While a temporary turn to "pitching chaos" wherein Stammen deployed openers, starters in relief, and piggyback situations proved to work, the team's progress toward contention prior to the deadline all but assured at least one starting pitcher would make their way to San Diego before August 3. They ended up with two.

First, it was Robbie Ray from the San Francisco Giants for a package that included a top pitching prospect in Miguel Mendez. Closer to the actual afternoon deadline, it was Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers as the Padres parted with an even more highly touted arm in lefty Kash Mayfield. That was a high price to pay on both sides, but one that was expected to help stabilize the rotation, especially with the expected returns of Pivetta & Musgrove in the second half.

Between the two, Ray was expected to bring in the postseason experience and Mize the upside. While Ray had his troubles keeping runners off base this season, a combination of a fly-ball rate that would play well at Petco Park and his ability to navigate said troublesome situation represented a quality addition. Mize, meanwhile, was in the midst of a career season with a 2.70 ERA through 16 starts with Detroit prior to the deadline. 

Interestingly, the rotation did stabilize. Padre starters averaged 4.7 innings per start in the second half, with a 3.92 collective ERA that ranked 11th among starting groups. The issue is that the majority of that leveling out came more from defined roles than any actual contribution from either of Ray or Mize. 

The right-hander represented the much larger issue of the two. He made 10 starts with the Padres to the tune of a 7.46 ERA and a 7.18 FIP that indicated the struggles weren't necessarily a mirage. His strikeout rate was just 12.0 percent, and he surrendered hard contact at a 44.4 percent rate. An ankle injury sent him to the IL at the end of the season and he never appeared in a playoff game. 

At the same time, Ray gave the Padres work all the way into the postseason. But his ERA sat at 5.64 in nine regular season starts with a walk rate over 14 percent. His 4.7 innings per start fell right in line with the team average during that stretch, but he also failed to work beyond the fourth inning in three of his nine starts. That trend quickly carried into the postseason. 

Ray didn't appear in either of the team's Wild Card Round games against the Chicago Cubs, but he did appear twice in the NLDS against Milwaukee including a Game 1 start. Therein, he almost immediately lost a grip on the Padres' early 2-0 lead by surrendering a pair if runs in the third inning; he wouldn't get out of the frame before being replaced. He threw another inning in Game 4, allowing a run in the fourth that would prove to be the death knell on the Padres' season. Ray concluded the postseason with a 7.36 ERA. 

Such is the legacy of the Padres' two primary additions from the 2026 trade deadline. In general, the moves were exactly what they should have been: a pair of established starters to help stabilize a rotation sorely in need of aid. And while that did, technically, happen, it's nearly impossible to say that it's because of Robbie Ray and Casey Mize. Their contributions were few and far between down the stretch, and considering the absence of positive contributions in the postseason (and in Mize's case, any contributions), it would be foolhardy to label A.J. Preller's moves as anything other than a failure, regardless of how logical the intent may have been.

View full article