BREAKING: Padres Trade For Giants Starter Robbie Ray

The San Diego Padres and San Fransico Giants are finalizing a trade that will send Robbie Ray down Interstate 5 to San Diego, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. In return, the Giants are landing Miguel Mendez and Joniel Hernandez, per Robert Murray of Fansided. Mendez, a right-handed pitcher, is ranked as the organization’s third-ranked prospect by Padres Mission. 

Ray is in the final year of a five-year, $115 million deal he originally signed with the Seattle Mariners. With a $25 million salary for 2026, the Giants are reportedly covering half of his remaining money. The Padres will pay $4.6 million in salary to Ray, which will help them stay in the repeater 30% luxury tax bracket and prevent them from going into the second luxury tax bracket. Currently, the Padres have a $261 million projected payroll tax with the competitive balance threshold set at $244 million; the Giants eating half of Ray's remaining salary prevents the Padres from going $20 million over and incurring a 42% tax penalty. 

The Padres, who looked to be on the fence as buyers or sellers, appear to be pushing their chips in. Ray should help bolster the back end of a rotation that has struggled for consistency and production. His 3.08 ERA this season would lead all qualified Padres’ starters, although his ERA estimators all have his ERA in the mid-4.00s. 

Despite the divergence in Ray's expected versus actual statistics, he'll provide the middle of the Padres' rotation some much-needed stability. After tearing his UCL in 2023, Ray made 32 starts in 2025 and is up to 21 this season. However, his durability might not be his only selling point. Ray's strikeout and walk figures have backed up compared to last season, but he may be underperforming his walk figures. Despite throwing a first-pitch strike 60.4% of the time, above his career mark of 59.6%, he's seen his walk rate balloon to 11.1% thanks to a zone rate of 43.4%, against a career average of 47.6%. Ray's approach appears to be to get strike one and then try to entice chase out of the zone. 

After scraping his sinker in 2023, Ray has reintroduced the pitch this season, which helps to explain some of his drop in strikeout rate, as sinkers notoriously don't miss many bats. On top of relying more on his sinker, his four-seamer has lost some of its effectiveness in the zone, going from an 85% in-zone contact rate in 2025 to 91.5% in 2026. However, the pitch has remained effective out of the zone, at a still solid 69.1% out-of-zone contact rate. When Ray has been at his best, his four-seamer has been his money pitch, but this season, both his curveball and change-up are performing well. Should the Padres get his pitch mix and approach right, there's a chance Ray's ERA estimators could trend towards his sterling ERA, but don't expect him to maintain his 3.08 ERA.

Miguel Mendez is one of the higher-variance pitching prospects in the minors, and now it'll be up to the Giants to iron him out as a starter or let him air it out in relief. Listed at 6'2, 165 lbs, Mendez is a lean, loose athlete who uses his whole body to whip in a plus fastball and slider. Unfortunately, his max-effort delivery makes the command aspect of his operation a roller coaster. Already 24 and walking 10.9% of batters in AA, the chances Mendez ends up a starter are getting as slim as he is. That being said, it doesn't take much imagination to see him move to the pen and become a monster leverage arm. 

Joniel Hernandez is the quintessential teenage lottery ticket. Signed out of Cuba this January, the 17-year-old Hernandez is performing well in the Dominican Summer League. Currently deployed as a shortstop, he has the athleticism to stay at an up-the-middle position, but he isn't so polished with the glove that he's viewed as a lock to stay there. Still, Hernandez has tremendous athleticism, which gives him tantalizing upside, which comes with a helping of swing-and-miss bust risk. In 24-months, his inclusion in the trade could look like a grave mistake, or he could be struggling on the complex. That's the risk-reward with teenage lottery tickets.

View our top trade candidates list, up to nearly 70 names and updated regularly!