Can Padres Compensate For A Potential Long-Term Nick Pivetta Absence?

For all of the concerns that we might have had around the starting pitching for the San Diego Padres, the rotation has actually been quite solid in the early going. Their collective 1.3 fWAR ranks 12th among all starting staffs while also sitting in the top 12 in ERA (3.82) and strikeout rate (24.2 percent). It's been imperfect, but it was always going to be. A potential long-term injury to Nick Pivetta, however, reignites concerns over the shape of this staff in 2026. 

This year's Opening Day starter, Pivetta was an anchor for the rotation in a career year in 2025 (3.7 fWAR). After a shaky outing on Opening Day against Detroit (three innings, six earned runs), Pivetta was flawless for five against San Francisco and held Pittsburgh to two runs in five more frames in his third start. His fourth start on Sunday against Colorado was shaping up to be another solid outing before "elbow stiffness" ended his day early. Details are murky and Pivetta dealt with arm fatigue in spring training, but any sort of elbow injury for a starting pitcher begets concerns for the long-term. 

In the event that Pivetta remains out, the team has Michael King, Randy Vásquez, Walker Buehler, and Germán Márquez already on the active roster. King has been steady and Vásquez has been excellent, while each of the latter two have been a bit of a mixed bag thus far. An injury would surely lock at least one of them in for a continued rollercoaster, if not both. 

Bigger picture, the Padres do have Joe Musgrove and Griffin Canning on the mend. However, the timeline between the two has the potential to vary quite a bit. Musgrove has been slow to ramp back up in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and has endured multiple setbacks in attempting his return. Canning, meanwhile, has made his first rehab start off an Achilles tear and looked decent. His impending return feels like more of a sure thing at this stage than Musgrove's. 

There's a third injured starter with the potential to fill a role in the form of Matt Waldron. He's made a trio of rehab starts in his return from an infection with a 0.00 ERA across 12 innings. And we shouldn't forget about JP Sears, who is in the minors via an option and not an injury. He's made three starts and has struggled with his command, though. Assuming that gets settled as we progress into April, he's another possibility. If the Padres are able to weather the storm without Pivetta for a time, any one of Waldron or Canning or Sears would slide in fairly easily from an on-paper standpoint. 

Reality, though, is a different beast. Like Buehler and Márquez, the results from each of Waldron, Canning, or Sears have the ability to vary wildly. Waldron was on shaky ground before suffering his setback and Sears was optioned for a reason, while the other three among that quintet have their own checked histories with both injury and performance. The good news, at least, is that there's volume. It's a lot of abstract value given the variables unique to each arm, but they won't have to pull from the relief corps to cover innings like other teams might be forced to. 

It's important to consider, though, that Pivetta's time in San Diego has come with a certain sense of reliability. Even amid such volume, the spectrum of outcomes for the two currently in the rotation and the two with imminent returns is massive. Would the Padres find money in the budget to bring in someone like Lucas Giolito? Or Tyler Anderson? There are a handful of others available, but money may be a sticking point no matter what. Those already in the organization may be what the organization has to work with to cover the innings lost by Pivetta, regardless of time.

Of course, all of this discussion and concern assumes some type of long-term absence in the first place. We still don't know the shape of the injury and, as such, the length of time for which he'll be out. Perhaps it pops as a scare and Pivetta misses a day or a start, with just an individual outing or so in need of coverage. Should it manifest as something more serious, though, there's a volume of depth here that the Padres spent the latter part of the offseason building. They probably hoped they wouldn't have to use it this early (and for this starter), however.

UPDATE: Nick Pivetta has been placed on the 15-day IL with an elbow inflammation designation.