Is David Morgan Ready To Assume Higher Leverage Duties For The Padres?

As preseason prognostications rolled out, it was clear that any hope the San Diego Padres had in 2026 hinged on the strength of their bullpen. Across both their slow start and a more recent stretch of success, that has largely proven to be true. No team in baseball has gotten more out of their bullpen in total value (1.4 fWAR), as the Friars sit in the top 10 in the league in ERA, FIP, walk rate, and groundball rate. It's a group that extends even beyond the very loud success of Mason Miller, but not quite in the way that we would've thought. 

While Miller was always going to be the guy in the ninth inning upon the free agent departure of Robert Suárez, the expectation was that it would be some blend of Jeremiah Estrada, Adrian Morejon, and Jason Adam in high-leverage situations. Others, like David Morgan, sat slightly behind in the pecking order. 

Early on, though, it's been Morgan that might just be the most reliable (non-Miller) arm the relief corps has to offer. 

Each of Estrada and Morejon have faced their struggles in the early going. Estrada maintained a high strikeout rate (26.7 percent) across his seven appearances but was battling woeful command on his way to a 16.7% walk rate prior to being placed on the injured list. Combine that with an inability to miss the barrel when he did allow contact and, consequently, a hard-hit rate approaching half of all batted balls, and you've got a high-leverage reliever working with an ERA north of five. Morejon, meanwhile, is fighting bad luck more than anything, with a .500 batting average allowed on balls in play despite good command. Both of them are working with a strand rate of around 40 percent, which is incredibly scant for relievers of their caliber. 

As such, with Adam's return still in its infancy following last year's ruptured quad, it may be Morgan's time to slide into the eighth-inning role given his early success.

Through his first six appearances of the season, Morgan has been as stable as anyone this side of Mason Miller. He hasn't allowed a run, he's avoided hard contact, and he's getting the ball on the ground at an obscene rate. While he hasn't yet flashed the strikeout upside of his comrades at the back end of the bullpen, he's demonstrated that he has the chops to handle leverage opportunities. Here's his percentile chart from this early stage of the year: 

There's a lot to like there. Most notable, though, is the blend in his ability to avoid hard contact and get opposing contact on the ground. Combining those two things is going to result in plenty of success regardless of the defense behind you, and that Morgan is doing both up in the 99th percentile speaks to why he's stifled opposing hitters completely thus far in 2026. It's not a mystery as to how he's doing it either, as there's a usage change driving his success.

Morgan is primarily working with three pitches. He's throwing a sinker nearly 40 percent of the time, his curveball at about a 32 percent clip, and the four-seamer about 27 percent of the time. That's a shift from last year, when Morgan threw his four-seam the majority of the time (36.7 percent) and brought his slider into the mix much more frequently (18.3 percent of the time). By ditching the slider and putting the sinker at the forefront, Morgan has lost some oomph on the strikeout side but gained it all back in run prevention courtesy of the aforementioned soft, ground-oriented contact. 

So, what's preventing Morgan from perhaps getting a larger share of those leverage innings? With Estrada on the IL, there's an easy case to be made that he should see some of that work, even when accounting for Adam's return. Ultimately, though, where you see that blue in the above visual is also likely what could pin Morgan down.

For one, his command has been imperfect. While the dip in strikeouts is at least partially a byproduct of his change in pitch usage, he also hasn't been able to generate much in terms of whiffs. You want that from a late-inning, high-leverage arm. The fact that he's been susceptible to allowing runners on base via the free pass also isn't working in his favor. Perhaps those two imperfections begin to trend in the appropriate direction as he grows more accustomed to his change in repertoire (assuming permanence). With Adam back in the mix and Morejon experiencing more bad luck than actual struggle, there just isn't quite enough there yet to let Morgan ply his trade in, say, the eighth inning. 

Nevertheless, this continued growth is encouraging. His emergence last year was part of the reason the Padres felt so good about their volume in relief coming into the year. If Estrada can come back to form upon returning from the IL, you're talking about four legitimate arms leading up to your closer. The value in the pressure that relieves from your starting rotation cannot be overstated.