Jake Cronenworth Might Be Playing His Way Onto the Padres' Bench

Jake Cronenworth had a lot to prove going into this season. After back-to-back All-Star campaigns in 2021 and 2022, Cronenworth has been a league-average player over the past three years. The San Diego Padres’ infielder has carried a 99 OPS+ from 2023-2025 while averaging less than 2.0 bWAR per season. Now 32, it's been a fair assumption to make that he's past his prime and is no longer capable of star-caliber production.

That’s why it has been so disappointing to see Cronenworth get off to an incredibly slow start in 2026. In fact, he's been borderline unplayable so far — he’s hitting .148, with a .246 on-base percentage. That’s almost a full 100 points below his career OBP of .334. 

Even worse, Cronenworth is not slugging at all. He’s hit just one home run and one double, good for a .213 SLG. In 18 games, he has only driven in three runs. He’s rocking a wRC+ of 40, making him 60% worse than the average big-league hitter. His bWAR is currently sitting at -0.4, on pace for the worst season of his career.

Obviously, if Cronenworth continues to hit this poorly, he will eventually be moved to a bench role. The Padres did experiment with Fernando Tatis Jr. at second base twice. If Tatis were to replace Cronenworth at second base, right field would open up to allow more at-bats for Gavin Sheets, Nick Castellanos, and Miguel Andujar. That's a very unlikely outcome given the hit it would apply to the team's defense, but it's one that we must address because of how poor the starting second baseman has been.

But the Padres are not going to give up on Cronenworth this early. He still has four years left on his contract after 2026, and the Friars can’t afford to pay him $12 million to sit on the bench. 

Obviously, the results have not been good, but what do the advanced metrics have to offer? Is Cronenworth due for a breakout soon, or is this what the Padres can expect from him going forward?

Jake Cronenworth Is Better Than His 2026 Stats

According to Baseball Savant, Cronenworth’s expected stats are significantly better than his results so far. 

His xBA is .244 (nearly 100 points above his actual average). His xSLG is .360 (147 points above his actual slugging). Those numbers still aren’t great, but they’re a lot better than his current results, and would probably result in an OPS somewhere in the mid-600’s. Combined with his strong defense, Cronenworth’s expected numbers would be good enough to justify him being an everyday player.

Cronenworth has been the victim of some bad luck, but he has not been doing himself any favors. His 4.5% barrel rate ranks in the 27th percentile. His 34.1% hard-hit rate ranks in the 23rd percentile. His launch-angle sweet-spot rate of 27.3% ranks in the 23rd percentile. His 71.8 miles per hour bat speed ranks in the 46th percentile, and his 19.2% squared-up rate ranks in the 14th percentile. 

Those are a lot of numbers to digest, but the gist of it is simple: Cronenworth is not hitting the ball hard very often, he’s not barreling it up or finding the sweet spot of the bat, and he’s not squaring pitches up. Even when he starts getting better BABIP luck, it’s hard to see how those numbers are going to result in more slugging. 

Bad Luck, Or Bad Timing?

Clearly, there is some bad luck to blame here. Cronenworth’s .163 BABIP is the sixth-lowest in baseball, well below his .279 career BABIP. Last year, Eugenio Suarez had the worst BABIP in baseball at .243. The BABIP will stabilize, and Cronenworth’s batting average will rise with it. 

But there are some more troubling concerns when looking at Cronenworth’s splits. 

Cronenworth is currently hitting .000 against off-speed pitches. His xBA against off-speed pitches is .136, which is still too low and far below his career numbers. 

In 2024, Cronenworth hit .289 against off-speed pitches, with an xBA of .266. Last year, he hit .197 against off-speed pitches, a major drop-off from the year before. The trend of Cronenworth not being able to hit changeups has accelerated in 2026 to the point of disaster. 

It’s also possible that this is all stemming from a timing issue, and that once Cronenworth fixes his timing, he’ll be able to hit the off-speed again. Right now, that’s not happening. He has a 47.1% whiff rate against off-speed pitches. Pitchers have been able to utilize changeups to make Cronenworth look silly. 

However, it’s not just off-speed pitches that Cronenworth is struggling against. He's seen 51 breaking balls this season, and he’s hitting .063 against them, with an xBA of .151. He’s whiffing against the breaking ball 39.1% of the time. 

Are Cronenworth’s poor splits simply the result of a slump that he will soon break out of? Or is his slump the result of a decline that is causing him to whiff more often against breaking balls and changeups? 

It’s hard to say after less than 20 games. The reality is that Cronenworth has not been good, and while the BABIP luck should improve, there are real underlying issues at play that could prolong his slump and eventually cause the Padres to take action and move him out of the everyday lineup.