Manny Machado Already Started Beating the Projection Systems Last Season

There is a truth to the San Diego Padres that has been relevant since 2019: Manny Machado is the team’s most important player. Yes, this is a team that also employs the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. But Machado drives the bus, a responsibility wrought by his blend of offense, defense, and intangible qualities in the clubhouse. 

In general, that blend is not yet stale. Machado has remained an above average hitter by wRC+ in each year with the Padres, and his two most recent seasons have shown a significant bounce back from what was a down season in 2023. The defensive chops have waned in certain respects, but Machado remains largely in line with his career outputs in average, on-base percentage, and a number of the underlying rates and trends on the offensive side. 

With all that being said, the projections anticipate a dip in productivity from the bat of one Manny Machado in 2026. 

There are roughly five prominent projection systems that we’re considering here, all of which feature a slightly different way of evaluating players. Some favor veteran players and take playing time more heavily into consideration. Others are deep on Statcast data or other nuanced factors. In any case, here are how those five project Machado to perform in 2026: 

First, the obvious: each of these projections offers a fairly similar outcome as to what to expect from Machado in 2026. That’s not terribly surprising given that he’s a veteran player with an extensive sample from which to choose. Nevertheless, it’s notable that Steamer – which tends to like veteran players – is higher on Machado, while ZiPs – which is heavily weighted by aging curves – is lower. Regardless, we’re within shouting distance of his norms regardless of metric. None of this seems entirely unreasonable given what Machado has continued to turn in over the past couple of seasons. 

There is one area, however, where Machado is coming up short: power. None of those slugging projections is especially favorable. If we isolated it to, well, ISO, where only extra-base hits are taken into consideration, we get the following (in order): .187, .192, .197, .195, .172. Again, Steamer likes him the most, and ZiPS isn’t a fan. 

This is the area, though, where we’ve seen Machado’s regular contributions start to fade. He’s had some absolutely torrid stretches in recent years; last July he followed up a .212 ISO month with a .283 clip. But it hasn’t been there on a remotely consistent-enough basis for a team that isn’t quite on a level with their peers in the power department. Age is the most likely factor for this decline. When one considers that alone, is there any reason to think that we may see Machado best the projections and start to regain some semblance of his old self in creating a more standard form of offensive impact? 

Interestingly, Machado’s percentile outcomes from 2025 are indicative of a player who was already doing just that: 

Machado still swings hard. Compound that with an upper-percentile barrel rate, and it’s no wonder he’s able to maintain such an elite Hard-Hit% at this point. One thing worth noting, too, is that Machado isn’t the type of player who needs to sit on one specific pitch type in order to drive the power side. He’s been versatile in each of his seasons with San Diego. What seems most notable there is actually his expected slugging.

The xSLG for Manny Machado in 2025 was .495. It was .467 in 2024 and .465 in 2023. His true slugging read .460 in 2025 (.185 ISO). It was his lowest output in either measure of power since 2024. In the two most recent seasons before that (the noted 2023 and 2024 campaigns), his actual slugging percentage checked in at .462 and .472. So, in 2023, his expected and actual slugging percentage lingered around one another while in 2024, he actually outperformed the expected metric. 

To add to this perplexing trend, Machado hit the ball hard at a 51.5 percent rate in 2025, which exceeded each of the two previous seasons. His PullAIR% was also two percent higher in 2025 than it was in 2024. Yet, within all of that, Machado got worse outcomes in matters of slug last year when he should’ve actually showcased one of the best power outputs of his entire career based on what the data had to say. So, the question isn’t so much whether or not Machado can regain his power stroke, it’s whether the power will actually manifest in the way it’s supposed to based on Statcast’s own expectation. 

Unfortunately, it’s difficult to see that actually coming to fruition. 

Machado, obviously, plays his home games at Petco Park. That’s 81 games at a venue that ranked 27th in its Park Factor for overall offense, last in doubles, and 20th in home runs. Those overall numbers are almost exactly what you’d get if you isolated it to only right-handed hitters, too. Machado’s slugging percentage was 13 points lower at home than it was on the road last year. His ISO was 24 points lower, too. It’s not a problem inherent in Machado or his age, but rather one that exists in the park itself. 

This presents us with an interesting paradox. It’s actually good that Machado is being pinned down so heavily by his home environment in that it means that any decline at this point isn’t so much due to age. Of course, the other side of that is that it’s also extremely bad that his offense is being pinned down by his home environment because the Padres need every source of run production they can find. 

Perhaps things find a way to even out in 2026, but the Padres should, at least, hope that Machado can bring the stick on the road with him. At least they know that it won’t be for lack of trying in either setting.