Manny Machado Has Quietly Been A Top Hitter Since The Start Of May

On Tuesday night in San Francisco, the San Diego Padres looked destined for yet another shutout loss. An offense that has wavered in producing runs consistently in recent weeks was down 2-0 in the Bay with two outs on the board. Luckily for them, Manny Machado was up. And Manny Machado knew the moment. 

With the bases loaded, Machado took a Camilo Doval breaking pitch into left field for a game-tying single. The Padres would go on to win in the 10th, courtesy of a Jake Cronenworth single. But it was Machado and his four hits that were the star, none bigger than the last one that came against the San Francisco Giants closer: 

Perhaps the most impressive element isn't the clutch nature of it, but where Machado was able to make the contact to drive the ball into the outfield. Not only was it at his shins, but the breaking pitch checks in as Doval's best overall pitch (121 Stuff+). Here's the visual: 

Those are contact skills of an elite nature, both in adjusting to the pitch itself and creating something of quality from it. Not that any of this should be a surprise, given what Machado has given the Padres since the start of May. 

Machado's start to the season was varying shades of fine. He had a 114 wRC+ with a .279 average and .336 on-base percentage. The power wasn't completely there (.144 ISO), but he was making plenty of quality contact. Nothing about it was bad, of course. But when you're measuring against the start of Fernando Tatis Jr or Jackson Merrill — to say nothing of Machado's own career at large — it didn't appear as impactful as we're accustomed to seeing from Machado. 

Then, the calendar flipped over to May. 

Since May 1, Machado's 178 wRC+ ranks 11th out of 176 qualifying hitters. His .352 average ranks sixth in that group, while his .423 OBP sits 12th. Perhaps most importantly, given some of the Padres' offensive struggles, is that the power has come along with it. His ISO since May 1st is at .204, with five of his seven home runs coming outside of the season's first month. 

What's encouraging is that there isn't a big difference in underlying trends for Machado since May 1 against what those trends looked like in March & April. He's actually made a little less contact, but he's also been slightly more choose-y in where he's deploying his swings (read: the swing rate is down). Whether this is intentional is something we'll likely need a larger sample with which to work, but the result is undeniable given that it's leading to more elevation. 

Machado was putting the ball on the ground at a 43.5 percent clip in March & April. Despite quality contact, that's not what you want when you're not the fleetest of foot at this stage of your career. Since the start of May, though, that rate has dropped to 36.0 percent, which is the lowest of the Padres' group of qualifying hitters. His fly ball rate has, in turn, risen to slightly over 40 percent. When you combine that with continued contact quality (12.4 Barrel%), you're going to get a more impactful version of Manny Machado. 

That's the version the Padres need. Machado's bat speed has declined in each of the last three years, but his barrel rate is going up. You can deal with a little bit whiff in his game if you're getting the blend of premium contact off the barrel and some elevation. And that's why you have Manny Machado on your roster — he's the player to lead through the tough stretches with his own offensive performance.

Injuries slowed this team from the jump. Now, it's roster-wide underperformance. But, after a relatively quiet start to the year, Machado is leading them through both.