Manny Machado's Patience Hasn't Been A Virtue

Somehow, the San Diego Padres are 18-9 and tied for first in the NL West. The reason I say somehow is that their team wRC+ of 95 ranks 23rd out of 30 teams. At the end of the season, no one cares how many games you deserved to win, but usually, you want to earn your wins. While the Padres have done well to overcome a sluggish start at the plate, they’ll no doubt want to turn it around. And of all their surprising underperformances, of which there have been many, Manny Machado’s is the most perplexing. 

Machado hasn’t just fallen off at the plate; he has completely changed as a hitter, which is an odd thing for a 33-year-old coming off a top-50 wRC+ who has three Silver Sluggers and four top-five MVP finishes to do. The season is still in small sample theater, but the wholesale changes Machado has made are too large to ignore. 

Before 2026, Machado’s operation at the plate was quite simple. He swung hard, he swung often, and he did damage on contact. Functionally, he went up to the plate looking to get beyond first base, not on it. In fact, the correlation between Machado’s isolated power relative to the league average (ISO) and wRC+ is 0.92 for his career. Obviously, power is a big factor in hitting performance, so a strong correlation is to be expected, but Machado built a Hall of Fame career by putting a charge in the ball. 

The downside to Machado’s approach was that he never walked much, which made him a bit more susceptible to fluctuations in his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Now, it wasn’t like Machado’s walk and strikeout figures were awful. He was routinely at or bettered the league average walk rate, and has always struck out less than the league average, but they were never his carrying trait at the plate… until now. 

It’s still very early, but Machado is walking at an incredible clip to start the season. His 15.5% BB% is almost double his career figure of 8.2% and ranks 19th in the league. The spike in walks isn’t a fluke either. He is currently sporting a 22.9% out-of-zone swing rate and a 66.8% in-zone swing rate. For a player whose career figures in those categories are 29.1% and 66.9%, respectively, Machado’s newfound patience suggests an overhaul in approach. 

In a vacuum, swinging at fewer balls is almost always a good thing. Walks are good. As are favorable counts. And it’s much easier to drive a strike past an outfielder than a pitch a few inches off the plate. However, baseball is not played in a vacuum, and what is usually a good development may be robbing Machado of what made him a special hitter in the first place.  

Despite Machado’s newfound discerning eye, he has functionally become a slap hitter. He really boosted his stock with a two-homer day on Sunday, but prior to that, his ISO stood at a career-low of .093, which was the 30th-lowest figure among qualified hitters this season. The culprit for Machado’s power outage is almost certainly varied, but he has earned these career-worst figures. His hard hit percentage is a career low 38.8%, as is his average 9.1 degree launch angle. For a player who has routinely been one of the best high-volume sluggers, this about-face is alarming. 

One of the first places to look is at swing speed data, and lo and behold, Machado is posting a career low figure. His 73.1 MPH average bat speed is his lowest recorded figure, which continues a consistent downward trend from 2023, the first season we have data. However, while a slightly slower bat is part of the picture, it doesn’t explain the totality of the power outage. 

Machado’s average bat speed might be down, but it is still well above the MLB average of 71.9 MPH. The problem is that average bat speed isn’t nearly as important as your fast swing rate. A fast swing is a swing that hits or exceeds 75 MPH, and it’s here where Machado has nose dived. In 2023, he had a 66.3% fast swing rate, in 2024 it dropped to 52.6%, then in 2025 it dropped further to 43%, and now in 2026, it’s sitting at 26.5%. While that downward trend is concerning, the league average is still 23.7%. Needless to say, shaving 20% off your fast swing rate isn’t going to do anything positive for your power production, and it comes with another concerning trend. 

Along with diminished bat speed, Machado’s bat angle has become less advantageous. His attack angle is at a career low of 4 degrees, and his attack direction is now at 4 degrees to the opposite field. The problem is that Machado already had a slightly flatter and less pull-oriented bat path. In 2025, his attack angle was 8 degrees, his attack direction was 0 degrees, and his swing tilt was 26 degrees, against league averages of 10 degrees, 2 degrees to the pull side, and 32 degrees of tilt. So, now, Machado is swinging slower and gearing his contact for less lift, which means way less power. 

Based on the preponderance of evidence, it appears that Machado’s decision to rein in chase has inadvertently reined in his power stroke. Baseball is played on razor-thin margins, and in the millisecond where your brain decides to swing is delayed even a fraction, it can prevent you from getting your bat to the ball in the most advantageous spot. The benefit might be better counts and more walks, but at the end of the day, the best hitters put a charge in the ball. 

If Machado wants to recapture his prior form, all he needs to do is get back to his prior approach. He has been one of the best players in baseball for a decade because he went to the plate looking to slug. Hitting is about controlled aggression, and Machado is leaning far too far into the control side of the equation. Simply put, he needs to go up there ready to swing, and if it means he chases a slider off the plate, well, that’s just the cost of being Manny Machado, future Hall of Famer.