One Thing The Padres Need From Each Hitter In 2026

The range of outcomes that we could see from the 2026 San Diego Padres is vast. It’s a flawed roster, but one that isn’t short on upside. Despite the attention that the pitching staff has gotten throughout the offseason, it’s the offensive side of things that could have the most significant bearing on their fortunes in the upcoming year.

The stars are still in place in Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jackson Merrill. The secondary pieces are, too, in Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, et al. Some new faces join the fray – most notably Sung Mun Song, Miguel Andujar, and Nick Castellanos – but it’s the holdover that will have the most to say about where this team can go this season. As such, let’s talk about what the team needs out of each hitter in order to maximize the offensive success that felt so fleeting a year ago.

Freddy Fermin: Get on Base

Freddy Fermin is not in San Diego to hit. He’s in San Diego as a competent, controllable catcher. Nevertheless, he’s going to have to find ways to stretch this lineup, and reaching base is the best way that he can do that. Despite limited upside, Fermin does have a keen awareness of the strike zone. What he doesn’t do, though, is walk. Despite quality strikeout numbers in the last two seasons – 17.9 and 18.7 percent, respectively – he’s more prone to swinging than walking, where he did so at a rate of just 5.5 percent in 2025. If he can start to work that patience to his advantage at a higher rate, it would be a boon for the top of the order given his likely presence toward the bottom of it. More on base for a catcher that has been close to an average baserunner in his career would beget more run production opportunities for the top bats when the lineup flips.

Gavin Sheets: Consistency in Approach

The 2025 iteration of Gavin Sheets lent plenty of validation to change-of-scenery as a concept. While the vibe shift itself likely played a role, Sheets was able to ascend on his own courtesy of chase and whiff rates that improved steadily as the season wore on. In August, Sheets posted by his highest in-zone swing rate (64.5 percent) and his lowest rate of chase-and-miss (22.2 percent) of any individual month. The result? Sheets slashed .412/.464/.745 with a 237 wRC+ in 56 plate appearances. It was a smaller sample due to injury (while also being entirely unsustainable), but there’s a foundation laid that speaks to what Sheets can do if he has the discipline reined in. If he wants to hold off Andujar and Castellanos for playing time, he’ll have to demonstrate some consistency in that regard.

Jake Cronenworth: Find the Barrel

As indicated by his 13.4 percent walk rate (94th percentile), Cronenworth is perhaps the most patient hitter the Padres have to offer. What he couldn’t do, however, was parlay that patience into positive outcomes when he actually swung the bat. His 6.2 percent barrel rate didn’t just live in the 25th percentile, but represented a rather notable drop from 2024, when he found it at a 7.8 percent clip. He swung the bat faster in 2025 than either of the previous years, getting him to roughly average after a pair of seasons on the slow end of the swing speed leaderboard. If he can utilize the approach toward creating more quality contact, the compounding of a keen eye and improved bat speed could have him trending back toward the power upside we saw from him early in his career.

Xander Bogaerts: Be Aggressive

In the first two months of 2025, there was plenty of talk of Bogaerts being a sunk cost and some hope that a team might be willing to take some of his contract off the Padres’ books. That shifted in June and July as Bogaerts posted wRC+ figures of 123 and 125, respectively, and brought his slugging percentage well back over the .400 threshold. The big change was in his aggression. While he walked at an abnormally high rate (based on his career number) in the first two months, the free passes dipped and the swing rate went up. We saw a glimpse of the same in an injury-shortened September (115 wRC+, .500 SLG), albeit in just 18 plate appearances. Bogaerts has the contact chops and an above-average swing speed that rose two percent from the previous season (72.2 MPH). Similar to Cronenworth – even if not as extreme – he can sacrifice a bit on the walk end if it means more impact when he swings the bat.

Manny Machado: Find the Power Faster

Manny Machado is one of the two or three most important hitters in the San Diego lineup. The last two seasons, however, it has taken him a while to get going. In 2024, he went three consecutive months with a sub-.200 ISO before exploding to .250, .283, and .237 in the last three months of the year. Last season, he started much the same before crossing the .200 threshold in June on his way to a .283 ISO in July. The difference is that in 2024, he was coming off an offseason surgery that likely contributed to his slow start. That same scenario didn’t exist last year. If the Padres want to continue their run of contention, though, the power is going to have to manifest out of Machado’s bat much earlier, especially in order to compensate for some of those stretches where it wanes as he ages.

Ramón Laureano: Get Back to Baltimore Ways

When the Padres acquired Laureano ahead of the trade deadline, the hope was that he’d continue the bounce back he’d demonstrated all year with the Orioles. Prior to the trade, he’d cut down the strikeout rate to a career best and had driven up the contact metrics above where they’d been in any year prior. With the Padres, though, things started to slide before a finger injury ended his season early. The swing rate rose, the whiff rate jumped five percent between August and September, and a rise in groundball contact led to his lowest BABIP outside of an abysmal April (.278). We know the skill set exists given the contact metrics, but the approach will have to resemble something closer to Baltimore if he’s going to serve as a regular contributor in 2026.

Jackson Merrill: Get the Slug Back

Merrill is somewhat unique on this list, as his top priority is to merely stay healthy. A hamstring strain, concussion, and ankle sprain limited him greatly over the course of 2025. His performance climbing back toward his rookie form from 2024 might just be a natural byproduct of being clear of those woes. Ultimately, though, the Padres need Merrill to regain some of his form on the power side above all. He came out hot in April (.297 ISO before the hamstring injury), but was unable to maintain that in the face of his other health issues as the year progressed. His ISO dropped and remained low in the subsequent months, going .143, .100, and .109, respectively, in the three months following his April tear. It did start to rebound in August, though, climbing to .214 before spiking to a gaudy .352 ISO in September. There’s some nuance in the approach that could yield the power outcomes, but the stroke is clearly there. As long as he’s healthy, he should be a dynamic presence in a lineup that needs all the power it can find.

Fernando Tatis Jr.: Balance Approach & Power

Tatis’ trajectory merits its own discussion in the coming weeks. But even as one of the most valuable players in the sport (6.1 fWAR in 2025), he hasn’t gotten back to the superstar level we saw prior to his various injuries and suspension quite yet. That’s largely due to the decline in power. Tatis’ .178 ISO in 2026 was a career low. At the same time, his strikeout and walk numbers were the best of his career. There’s a clear tradeoff happening in hopes of making more contact. While that may have its benefits, Tatis is a catalyst to this lineup that already suffers a bit in the power department. He may have to find a blend of the two to maximize his value to this group.