Padres' Rebuilt Rotation Deserves Equal Parts Optimism and Skepticism

The rotation for the 2026 San Diego Padres always seemed destined serve as a weak point of the roster. Fragilely assembled out of a collection of minor-league and one-year deals, there wasn't a whole lot of certainty to be offered by the starting five despite the stability provided by the bullpen behind them. 

That largely came to fruition as the season progressed. In the first half, the Padres ranked 21st in innings from starting pitchers (848.2), 17th in ERA (4.25), and 19th in FIP (4.24). They also sat 19th in strikeout rate (21.5 percent) and 22nd in walk rate (9.5 percent), with a rare saving grace that they ranked merely in the middle in hard contact surrendered (38.2 percent).

It's really that first number that stood as most concerning for much of the year. In March & April, they were 28th in the league in innings pitched by starters (268.0), before jumping to 16th in May (248.0) only to fall back to 22nd in June (228.2). That led to concerns about a taxed bullpen, especially as some injuries began to emerge out of the relief corps. 

Given all of that, A.J. Preller made it a point to confront the pitching issue directly at this year's trade deadline. He acquired Robbie Ray from the San Francisco Giants & Casey Mize from the Detroit Tigers, with the additional expectation that Joe Musgrove would return from his continued Tommy John recovery at some point in the second half. There was also a bump in performance from some of the regulars. 

While we've seen names like Griffin Canning, Matt Waldron, JP Sears, and Germán Márquez pitch their way out of a starting gig (if not the organization), other names began to stabilize the group. Michael King & Walker Buehler have each been remarkably steady over their last handful of starts while Randy Vásquez went on his own mini hot streak. Factor in the additions of Ray & Mize, and there was an expectation that the group would evolve from a severe shortcoming of this roster to something more resembling an actual strength. 

Now creeping deeper into September, we can pretty definitively say that hasn't happened. 

For their part, King, Buehler, and Vásquez have continued to stay the course. King has only failed to reach six innings of work in two of his last 11 starts, Buehler ended August with three outings of six frames and one of five, and Vásquez ended August with a 2.57 ERA across 28 innings, his best in any individual month. Ray has also been varying levels of fine. He has a 3.42 ERA through five starts with the Padres (though he's only averaging a shade over five innings per start). 

Where the Padres run into trouble with their previously conceived optimism is in Mize and in Musgrove, two arms that looked prime to provide as much upside as we'd seen from this group in 2026. 

Through six starts with the Padres, Mize has a 6.67 ERA. His debut was a 3.1-inning, nine-runs-allowed start before adding starts of an injury-shortened, four-earned-run variety and a four-inning, four-earned effort to close the month. In the two latter outings, he allowed a combined five home runs across 6.2 total innings.

Musgrove, meanwhile, appeared to be nearing the end of his rehab work. In his final El Paso start in August, he threw five innings and allowed just one run. It was as good as he looked across a quartet of minor-league starts. However, recovery continues to be an issue following starts. He went 12 days between appearances for the Chihuahuas ahead of that last appearance, with no indication of when we may see him on the mound again. At this point, it's fairly clear that he's not an arm that can be relied upon for even one inning before season's end. 

And none of this even takes into account Nick Pivetta. After abruptly leaving a rehab start on August 4, he's appeared twice (including on August 30) for El Paso. Therein, he threw 4.1 innings and didn't allow a run. He's expected to be back tonight, though it's unfair to expect he'll immediately resume his position atop the rotation after such a long hiatus.

So, while the Padres are still in better shape than they might have been in the first half of the season, rotation concerns still persist. They're merely taking on a new form with different names. While the starting pitching doesn't bear the entire responsibility for the team's recent slide out of a Wild Card position, any sort of positive news would be a welcome development for a team hoping to shift the vibe back in the correct direction as soon as possible.