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For a lot of teams around the league, it’s officially crunch time. For the San Diego Padres, that might be putting it lightly.
The Friars currently hold the lead for the final National League Wild Card spot, but the Diamondbacks are right on their heels. With the margin for error shrinking by the day, the Padres can’t afford to give away too many games over the final few weeks of the regular season. And unfortunately for them, their remaining schedule provides plenty of opportunities to do just that. So, which games remaining on the Padres’ schedule are absolute must-wins?
Must-Win Padres Games That Will Determine Their Postseason Fate
Well, it just so happens that San Diego’s final series of the regular season will come at Petco Park against the Diamondbacks. That series isn’t guaranteed to decide who gets the final Wild Card spot, but the odds are pretty good that it will. With two weeks still separating us from that series, neither team has announced its rotation plans, so it’s impossible to know exactly who will be taking the mound. But it really doesn’t get much more must-win than this.
If the Padres and Diamondbacks are still battling for that final postseason spot when they meet on the final weekend of the regular season, San Diego will have home-field advantage and three games to potentially settle the matter. There’s a very real chance that everything the Padres do between now and then will simply be setting the stage for that series.
Of course, before they get to Arizona, they’ll have to travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. And I’m not going to sit here and say the Padres need to sweep the Dodgers if they want to make the postseason. That would be silly, and considering San Diego is just 3-7 against Los Angeles in 10 games this season, it would probably be a little unrealistic, too. But if the Padres can take two out of three, I think that has to be considered a major win at this point in the season.
For starters, Shohei Ohtani recently landed on the 15-day injured list, meaning the Padres could potentially avoid facing one of the most dangerous bats in baseball during that series. That doesn’t suddenly make the Dodgers an easy opponent, but it certainly helps San Diego’s chances. More importantly, winning two of three in Los Angeles would give the Padres some much-needed momentum heading directly into that final series against Arizona. And before they get to either of those teams, San Diego has a stretch of games that lines up pretty well in its favor.
The Padres will travel to San Francisco this weekend for a three-game series against the Giants, and they have Robbie Ray, Michael King and Nick Pivetta lined up to pitch. Knock on wood, but there’s a legitimate opportunity for San Diego to sweep this series. The Giants have had their moments this season, but if the Padres are serious about holding onto their Wild Card spot, this is exactly the type of series they need to win. Taking two of three would be perfectly acceptable, but there’s no reason San Diego shouldn’t be aiming for all three.
After that, the Padres will head to Colorado for a four-game series against the Rockies early next week. Yes, the Rockies are a better team at Coors Field. Yes, playing in Denver always comes with some added variables. But let’s be honest here: they’re still the Rockies. Colorado has been the worst team in baseball once again this season, and a team fighting for its postseason life shouldn’t be afraid of a four-game series against them. Taking three out of four would be a great result. A sweep would be even better.
And then, right before the Padres head to Los Angeles, they’ll return home to host the Marlins for three games. Miami was, at one point, entrenched in the Wild Card race themselves. That’s no longer the case, though, as they’ve gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games and now sit six and a half games out of the playoff picture. That doesn’t mean San Diego can afford to overlook them, but this is another series where the Padres should be looking to take care of business.
The Giants, Rockies and Marlins aren’t necessarily must-win series individually. The Padres could drop a couple of games in those matchups and still make the postseason. But if the Friars want to make the final week of the regular season a little less stressful, going 7-3 or even 8-2 across those 10 games would go a long way. That would give them some breathing room before traveling to Los Angeles, and potentially allow them to enter that final series against Arizona with a little more room for error. Because once the Padres get to that point, there probably won’t be much margin left.







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