Padres' Rotation Can't Escape Their Fatal Flaw In Second Half

To say that the San Diego Padres have a rotation issue would serve as a rather severe understatement. Nor would it be a stretch to declare their playoff hopes to be all but over, if it's not rectified in short order.

Not that the Padres were ever supposed to be a team that could lean on their starting pitching. They were bullpen-forward throughout the offseason, with the expectation that it would combine with their collection of big names and long-term contracts on the positional side to compensate for the shortcomings of their starters. Health and budget issues forced them into the assembly of a staff that relied more on the volume of arms available than the quality of them. As such, that compensation has not happened. Just how bad it's been, though, still seems jarring.

The Padres came into the season with a rotation that featured Michael King at its head, followed by Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Germán Márquez, and Walker Buehler. Each of Griffin Canning & Matt Waldron were set to serve as depth upon recovery from their respective injuries, with JP Sears in El Paso to begin the season as well. Lucas Giolito's arrival early in the season added yet another option. The assumption was that Joe Musgrove would be back in the mix at some point, too. While that's the kind of depth, it's difficult to overstate how complicated that group has become as the season has worn on. 

King has represented the only source of stability, albeit with massive struggles working deep into games; his ERA the third time through the order is more than nine, against marks of 2.03 & 1.84 the first two turns, respectively. Vásquez held his own through two months before he began to fade. The same goes for Buehler, who endured a particularly bad stretch of three starts (20 ER) heading into the All-Star break.

Meanwhile, each of Márquez, Giolito, and Pivetta have missed significant time with injuries, the latter not having appeared since April 12. Likewise, Musgrove's return still hasn't come into focus. That's pressed the likes of Canning and Sears into heavier duty than they might otherwise have warranted at this point.

Ultimately, though, the issue here isn't with performance. The Padres were not expecting top-half-of-the-league output from their collection of arms. Instead, it's volume that represents the central issue.

The Padres rank just 28th in the league in innings pitched by starting pitchers, with 442.1. That's 4.6 innings per start. That figure doesn't take into account the use of an opener, which has been a route utilized more for Canning specifically. He's only averaged three innings per outing when being deployed as the "bulk" arm, though, so it's not as if the numbers would look more appealing had that side been included. 

Only three starters have exceeded 80 innings in such a role this year, with the distribution for candidates looking like this in total body of work and innings pitched per start: 

• Michael King: 108.1 IP, 5.7 IP/GS
• Walker Buehler: 89.0 IP, 4.7 IP/GS
• Randy Vásquez: 80.2 IP, 5.0 IP/GS
• Griffin Canning: 46.2 IP, 4.6 IP/GS
• Germán Márquez: 38.2 IP, 4.8 IP/GS
• Lucas Giolito: 20.2 IP, 4.0 IP/GS
• JP Sears: 19.2 IP, 4.8 IP/GS

Ideally, you'd like to live in a world where your starting pitcher is giving you at least five innings of work. Obviously, more volume would be the preferred route, but the Padres' construction of their starting staff makes five perhaps the most reasonable ask. They're not getting anything remotely close to that, however. In fact, since June 4, Padres starters have reached six innings only five times. Each of those starts has been from Michael King. Nobody else has sniffed a quality start in more than a month. 

There's plenty of context that goes into it. Command appears central, with San Diego starters featuring the league's sixth-highest walk rate (9.7 percent). And injuries haven't helped, particularly when the likes of Pivetta or Musgrove may be the most equipped to get you that volume and lack an imminent return date. It all comes together to present a massive two-fold issue for the rest of the roster.

On one hand, you have a bullpen that's been pressed into work more frequently than you'd prefer this early in the season. Only four teams have had relievers work more than the Padres and their 406.1 innings of bullpen innings. It also puts the hitters, a group which has largely underperformed, working from behind seemingly from the jump. For an offense that has taken a while to get going, it's part of the reason that the Padres hit the break at exactly .500. 

It's an issue pinning down the Padres' ability to string together wins. And if it's not rectified soon, it could be their undoing ahead of next month's trade deadline. Unfortunately, it doesn't appear as if there's salvation on the horizon. We still don't know about the returns of Musgrove or Pivetta. Vásquez & Giolito each remain out. That means continued work for Canning, Márquez, Buehler, and Sears in the starting five with no firm way of knowing what you're getting out of any of that group on a given night. 

What's more unfortunate is that justification for adding to the group before the trade deadline goes out the window if the team can't get this sorted right away; why pull from your already-shallow pool of prospects for an arm when your team finds itself out of the race? Which means that this group needs to find a way to start providing some volume, or the Padres are looking at continued instability through the end of 2026.