Padres' Situational Regression At Center Of June Woes

After a scorching start to the season, the San Diego Padres have won just nine games in June. They've won only 14 since May 16th, leaving them with a 14-20 record since the point in which some of their offensive woes really started to manifest.

That particular mark in the calendar is significant, as it was a stretch where they plated just three runs in five games and started the slide in which they are still currently mired. Whether we're attributing it to injury, lack of depth, or poor timing on the part of pitching struggles, it has undoubtedly been the team's worst stretch of any length this season.

However, we can also look closer to the center in identifying just what has made it such a struggle since May 16th. Because it's just a broad swoon for the lineup but a situational one. 

Whether you're considering "situational" to mean runners on, runners in scoring position, or hitting with two outs, the Padres were succeeding in the early going. The following is what the production looked like and where they ranked as a team in each facet as of May 15th: 

• Runners On: .271 AVG (4th), .340 OBP (7th), 17.5 K% (2nd), 9.4 BB% (14th), .124 ISO (19th), .313 BABIP (5th)
• RISP: .282 AVG (4th), .362 OBP (3rd), 18.5 K% (4th), 11.7 BB% (7th), .103 ISO (27th), .332 BABIP (3rd)
• With Two Outs: .294 AVG (1st), .369 OBP (1st), 15.7 K% (1st), 9.6 BB% (9th), .184 ISO (4th), .325 BABIP (3rd)

That's obviously a lot to unpack. The team was quite good at generating production with runners on, whether they were in a scoring position or not. They were consistently getting the ball in play and working their way on base. Neither BABIP figure is outlandish, so it's hard to say that they were relying entirely on luck. While they weren't producing a real impact at the plate, there was a visible approach that allowed them to score runs when given the opportunity. 

The two-out element really stands out, especially considering how much better the Padres were than everyone else. Their average was 25 points higher than the second-place Athletics, and their strikeout rate was five percent better than second-place Kansas City. You could make the argument that regression was due there, in particular, given how far ahead they were of their counterparts on either leaderboard. 

What was really impressive was that it wasn't a matter of one or two guys carrying any figure, either. Jackson Merrill started the year hitting over .400 with runners on. Each of Manny Machado, Jose Iglesias, and Luis Arráez carried averages over .300 while Gavin Sheets & Fernando Tatis Jr. were over .280. The lowest wRC+ with a runner on base from that group was Iglesias' 110. It got even better when you put said runners in scoring position. Merrill's average still paced the group (.421), but Iglesias joined him in the hitting-over-.400 department (.409). Machado was at .395 while Tatis' .296 average with runners in scoring position was the "worst" of that group. 

The top performers with two outs included Machado (.429 average), Tatis Jr (.362), and Sheets (.341). None of the three struck out more than 16 percent of the time in such situations, with Tatis (.362 ISO) and Machado (.224) doing some of their best work on the power side with two outs on the board. 

Obviously, things can become a little more outlandish when examining individual performance from a situational standpoint. You're looking at a 40-ish plate appearance sample prone to things like batting averages over .400. Each guy has different nuances and approach trends, but the bottom line is that the Padres were absolutely thriving when you dropped them in run-scoring situations or put them against the wall with only an out to spare. Of course, that was before the calendar read May 16th. 

Here's where the Padres stand in each regard (runners on, runners in scoring position, and two-out situations) in the weeks since that point: 

• Runners On: .236 AVG (23rd), .306 OBP (26th), 17.8 K% (3rd), 9.1 BB% (11th), .109 ISO (27th), .274 BABIP (25th)
• RISP: .214 AVG (27th), .283 OBP (29th), 20.3 K% (12th), 8.6 BB% (24th), .075 ISO (30th), .260 BABIP (27th)
• With Two Outs: .206 AVG (27th), .265 OBP (30th), 21.1 K% (11th), 7.4 BB% (24th), .124 ISO (19th), .248 BABIP (30th)

That is... a lot of regression. It's not even the Padres' fault in certain respects. The walk numbers indicate a certain decline in the approach that could bear some responsibility, but it's not like they're expanding the zone to the point of racking up strikeout numbers here. It appears to be a lot of brutal luck, most notably with the way the BABIP numbers have plummeted in each situation. That's not even the regression-to-the-mean type of regression. That level of regression feels almost cruel. 

Unsurprisingly, the individual numbers don't favor many members of the Padres here. Luis Arráez is hitting .322 with runners on since May 16th. Jackson Merrill's at .289, Jake Cronenworth is .275, and then it's quite downhill from there. Moving those runners into scoring position further decreases the numbers, with Gavin Sheets' .258 average sitting as the third-best among qualifying Padres. His .290 average with two outs is the best, speaking to how much worse things have gotten for the collective since that May 16 threshold. 

A hodgepodge of numbers stands before you, to be sure. And, again, there are any number of things we can point to as bearing responsibility for why the Padres have regressed so much situationally. It's not all of their own doing, but the fact is, the regression is there. It's certainly the type of trend that was always going to manifest, but given that the team is currently sitting at over a month of this, you hope that things start to go the other way directly.