Randy Vasquez's Sinker Is A Plus Pitch, & He Should Be Using It Against MLB Hitters

As of this week, the Padres have placed starting pitcher Randy Vasquez in Triple-A El Paso. While Vasquez has had some controversial production this season (specifically in terms of sustainability), optioning your second-most-productive pitcher to the minor leagues is a bold move for a team that should have all their best hands on deck.       

Vasquez’s spot in the rotation came into question following an active trade deadline, where the Padres added two lefty starters in the form of Nestor Cortes and JP Sears. Before these moves, the Padres didn’t have a single reliable, lefty starter, leading to general manager A.J. Preller’s acquisition of two veteran southpaws. 

Since the deadline, Vasquez has only been given the chance to start one game. An outing that, in the Padres' defense, was not a good one (4 IP and 5 ER vs St. Louis). Following that start, he was given one more opportunity to pitch out of the bullpen (3 2/3 IP and 2 ER vs Los Angeles), a role he clearly needed time to adjust to. He has been stuck in Triple A since. 

Vasquez’s season numbers are:

• 23 GS
• 111.1 IP
• 3.96 ERA
• 12.3 K%
• 10.2 BB%
• 5.20 FIP

Even this small group of statistics paints a clear picture. Vasquez has been healthy, reliable, and numerically “unsustainable.” The top three stats are some of the best on the team, but the bottom three are concerning. 

To start, let's break down why the Padres are no longer prioritizing his spot in the rotation. 

Along with his scary K/BB ratio and poor FIP, Vasquez has a 5.88 xERA, 5.88 xFIP and .259 BABIP. These X’s mean “expected.” Essentially, every one of his expected stats is much higher than his actual production. The xERA being two runs higher than his actual ERA represents an especially high amount of statistical “luck.” 

The other difficulty for Vasquez is his current fit in the rotation. Early in the season, when he was racking up innings, the Padres were so unhealthy that his strong starts were a godsend. Having Vasquez as a second competent pitcher with Nick Pivetta was so crucial that nobody wanted to worry about whether he could keep it up. Now, with Darvish back and slowly returning to form, King continuing to dominate when healthy, and two new lefties, there isn’t as much need for Vasquez. 

Why Vasquez Still Belongs
Despite the understandable lack of confidence from San Diego, I am a believer that Vasquez does not belong in El Paso. San Diego may have a deeper rotation than they did a few months ago, but they are still far from having a consistent starting five. Ace Pivetta locks up the top spot, but after him, nobody in the rotation has earned anything. All other options have some combination of poor performance (Dylan Cease, Yu Darvish, JP Sears), poor health (Michael King, Nestor Cortes, Yu Darvish), or unsustainable success (Randy Vasquez). 

Although FanGraphs projections aren’t a supporter of Vasquez, Statcast can give us some insight into why he has been effective. 

In 2025, he has turned his sinker into one of the best pitches in baseball. At 9.8 outs above average, the pitch has given him the ability to create weak contact consistently. As a result of his newly improved sinker, Vasquez has performed well in the following categories:

• 78.5 LOB %
• 52.5 Zone %
• 69.9 Chase Contact %
• 37.7 Ground Ball %
• 30.3 Under %
• .259 BABIP

Even if Preller elects to bet against his sustainability, this skillset can still prove valuable for the MLB roster. Say the playoff rotation is Pivetta, King, Cease, Darvish, and one of the southpaws; then Vasquez can still track as a valuable long reliever. He can get clutch outs, induce weak contact, and give a new look to opposing offenses that complements San Diego’s heater-heavy bullpen. 

His single relief appearance in Los Angeles was not a disaster. The Dodgers have a difficult lineup, and he kept things together decently, despite his discomfort with the role. Finding more innings for Vasquez should be a priority in San Diego, especially if King remains injured.

Given the importance of sustainability metrics in today's MLB, it’s impossible for me to undeniably prove that Vasquez has to remain in the Padres rotation. From a simpler perspective, though, he has been the second-best healthy run preventer in the rotation, and he has some numbers that give hope for continued success. 

• 10.2 BB% is 3.5% higher than 2024. That number should even out to end the season.
• His xERA has always been much higher than his ERA during his career. “Expected” metrics don’t perfectly track contact pitchers. 
• Only 2/6 of his pitches are negative value (cutter/curveball). A new pitch caller in Freddy Fermin could help his strategic pitch usage. Especially against lefties.
• His most impressive asset is his 6-pitch arsenal. Even if he cools down with his sinker, he can compensate by finding comfort with other pitches.

I may eat my words, but I'm a supporter of 2025 Randy Vasquez. On an island of misfit toys, he has earned the chance to compete for a final rotation or long relief spot. If the staff's health fails them come October, or struggles to pitch with RISP, then the Padres will regret not letting Vasquez play out the season.