Nick Castellanos Deserves Better. Can the Padres Afford to Wait for Better Luck?

[Brendan Dentino]

Despite a very good career, Nick Castellanos will be remembered for a drive into deep left field and for cracking a beer mid-game in his manager’s face. The 2026 San Diego Padres don’t care about that. They just need their unlikely utility man to hit for power. By one metric, he’s doing exactly that. An astounding 39.6% of his batted balls are lifted in the air.

If he had enough at-bats, then Castellanos would comfortably be the leader in all of baseball in air pull rate. This is significant because, according to data by MLB Data Warehouse, batted balls pulled in the air are the most likely to be home runs, and it’s not particularly close. Nearly 38% of pulled fly balls are home runs. The percentages are in the single digits to center and to the opposite field. Colorado Rockies outfielder Mickey Moniak, for example, is ninth in baseball in air pull rate and is tied for sixth, with none other than Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, and Mike Trout, in home runs.

Castellanos’ air pull rate is a salve for the Padres’ offense, which ranks among the worst in team OPS. Or rather, it should be a salve. Castellanos has but one home run on the season, and he is, by almost any other metric, one of the least productive players in baseball. Over just 69 plate appearances, he has accrued -0.9 bWAR. His .172/.217/.281 slash line is brutal. His 35 wRC+ even more so. The extent of Castellanos' value so far this season has been that another team, the Philadelphia Phillies, is paying almost all of his salary.

Castellanos' stat line this season continues his decline in production. From 2016-2021, hes was one of the best, most consistent hitters in baseball. Only in the Covid-shortened 2020 season did he post an OPS+ lower than 112, and even then it was a bang-on average 100. After a 2021 season with the Cincinnati Reds, in which he slashed an incredible .309/.362/.576, Castellanos signed a five-year, $100 million deal with the Phillies. He was disappointing in 2022 and solid in 2023. Factoring in his defense, he has since been more or less unplayable.

That is what makes his air pull rate so fascinating and so tantalizing. Castellanos’ career-high air pull rate is accompanied by groundball rates to left and center and air rates to center that are consistent with his career. His K% is slightly down, his BB% slightly up. Castellanos, who never saw a down-and-away slider he didn’t like, even has a lower Chase % than three of his latter seasons.  

What has changed is his batted balls to the opposite field, which on the ground literally don’t exist. His opposite-field groundball rate is 0.0%. (His career rate is 3.3%.) The air rate to the opposite field is nearly 16 points off his career average. All the while, his average exit velocity is highest since 2023. It feels like Castellanos is an uncle at a backyard whiffle ball game trying to put every pitch onto the roof of the garage.

The veteran's stat line is tantalizing because, statistically, it's inevitable that the outcomes will turn around. For the first time since 2019, his expected home runs exceed his actual home run total. After all, the Padres don’t play every game in Petco Park, one of the hardest ballparks in which to hit. And like teammate Jake Cronenworth, Castellanos’ expected batting average is almost 100 points better than his actual batting average. 

When it comes to Castellanos, the Padres desperately need the law of averages to win out, because their punchless offense is weighing on the club. After an 18-8 start, the Friars are 4-6 since April 26. Of course, baseball doesn’t always comply with theory and it isn’t played on computers. It’s played on the grass, where Castellanos has done little good besides swing for the fences. Like an uncle at a barbecue, he can only keep swinging, hoping past glories are around the corner.

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