The Crone Zone Is A Lonely Place In San Diego These Days

Jake Cronenworth’s career highlight is, undoubtedly, from Game 4 of the 2022 National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

Though they were up 2-1 on the series, the San Diego Padres faced a 3-0 deficit going into the bottom of the 7th inning of Game 4. A loss would have meant trudging back up the 5 for a winner-takes-all showdown in Los Angeles, but the clear night sky delivered a madcap rally that evened the score. Cronenworth stepped to the plate with two on and two out, and in a 2-2 count, he stayed on a breaking ball tumbling to the very outside edge of the plate. He served it into center field. Both runners would score, and the Padres would close out the series two innings later in what is probably the most rapturous night in Petco Park history.

It feels like yesterday, but that occurred four years ago this October. Since then, Cronenworth has been a confounding player, especially this season. His slash line is an incomprehensible .149/.275/.207, and his 51 wRC+ pegs him as one of the least productive regulars in baseball. Least fun of all, we’ve entered the Crone Zone just once this season. His lone homer came over three weeks ago on April 8. 

There are two obvious questions when it comes to Jake Cronenworth the player: What’s wrong with him, and how do we fix him? These are worthy questions, indeed, but it’s helpful to start from the beginning.

Jake Cronenworth was a late bloomer, having spent three years at Michigan and parts of five seasons in the Tampa Bay Rays minor league system. It wasn’t until that fifth season that he forced people to notice him. Over 97 games, he batted .329 and recorded a .933 OPS. With double digit steals and home runs, he proved that he could be a complete offensive player. It’s why the Padres traded for him (and Tommy Pham) ahead of the 2020 season, and it’s how Cronenworth made an impact immediately.

He registered a 129 OPS+ in the Covid season, which earned him second place in NL Rookie of the Year voting. Over the next two full seasons, including the Padres’ run to the 2022 NLCS, Cronenworth produced 7.3 fWAR. He averaged 155 games, a 116 OPS+, and 113 wRC+. He adequately defended three infield positions. It’s little wonder why the Padres gave Cronenworth a seven-year, $80 million extension as the 2023 season was getting started. Over his first three years with the team, Cronenworth was simply one of the most productive and versatile infielders in baseball.

"He definitely was not the ‘throw-in’ player in the [2019 trade]," Padres general manager A.J. Preller told MLB.com after Cronenworth’s contract extension was announced. "But he's clearly worked his way from a player that we were excited to acquire to a core member of our nucleus. He's the epitome of what we're looking for from a Padre."

Not three years later, Cronenworth was subject to trade rumors. That’s because of a 2023 season in which he was limited to 127 games and was for the first time a below-average hitter, and because of solid, if unspectacular, seasons in 2024 and 2025. If only the rumormongers knew what was in store for 2026. Though he's been downright bad this year, Cronenworth’s is a peculiar case to diagnose.

Is his average exit velocity down? Not really. It is down this season, but it's not at career-low levels and exit velocity has never been a strength.

How about hard-hit percentage? It’s basically flat for his career, and again, it’s never been a strength.

Okay, then his chase, whiff, and strikeout percentages must have increased? Nope, nope, and nope. He’s long excelled here (though this year they have taken a dip). In fact, his walk percentage has only increased throughout his career, and his bat speed is faster than ever.

So, he must be unlucky this season? Kind of. His xBA this season is .246, almost 100 points better than his actual batting average, and his xwOBA is a not-that-awful .320. That’s balanced out by luck earlier in his career. He's experiencing the vagaries of a career in baseball.

One problem I can pinpoint is his batted ball direction. Cronenworth’s line drive percentage has decreased every year since 2023, and his launch angle has plummeted this season. Consequently, batted ground balls are at a career high. That is not helpful for someone who doesn’t hit the ball hard and, in a 162-game season, has never finished better than the 89th-fastest player. 

Cronenworth may have dug himself into too deep a hole to be a league average hitter this season, but the advanced statistics indicate he’ll bounce back to be a perfectly adequate hitter. This indicates that his “problem” is actually one of perspective, not performance. 

Cronenworth’s minor-league breakout occurred during his age-25 season. Three great seasons ensued in the major leagues, encompassing his peak seasons by age. The Padres extended his contract then, banking on his durability, defensive versatility, and, most of all, his good eye and ability to make contact. Three good-or-worse seasons ensued, and this season has been an (unlucky) disaster. Fans have grown frustrated with their $80 million man, and they may be worrying about how a 36-year-old Cronenworth affects the 2030 Padres (assuming he’s still on the roster). 

But so far, the Padres have paid Cronenworth about $3.7 million per fWAR produced as part of that $80 million extension. According to a FanGraphs analysis, teams are paying over $12 million per WAR in free agency for players who produce two or more WAR, as Cronenworth has done in all but one of his 162-game seasons. This not to suggest Cronenworth is underpaid. It’s to say the Padres knew full well about age-related regression, the cost of wins on the open market, and their place in a relatively small media market. 

So, what’s wrong with Cronenworth? Nothing, really, besides being human. And what’s the “fix”? To just keep swinging (though lifting the ball in the air a little bit more wouldn't hurt).