The Case For and Against the Padres Trading Jake Cronenworth This Winter

What was already set to be a complicated offseason for the San Diego Padres got even more so with news that the Seidler family was exploring a sale of the franchise. Despite what appeared to be a little bit of financial wiggle room upon some impending departures from the 2025 roster, everything is in flux now.

Of course, we don't have any confirmation on that. But, even if the Padres did want to run a payroll in the neighborhood of where they ended 2025 (about $211 million), that only leaves them with about $20 million given a projected $190 million for the 40-man roster at present. Regardless of the financial particulars, it appears increasingly likely that the team could explore a deal for at least one of their long-term position players. 

It's an idea centered around position players because position players is where they have volume on the long-term side. Each of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill, and Jake Cronenworth are under contract until at least 2030. The pitching staff doesn't have that kind of action, with just each of Nick Pivetta & Yu Darvish locked into deals through only 2028 (the latter of which doesn't even have a clear path to finishing out the deal).

Of the position players on the roster, it's Jake Cronenworth that is most likely to be moved. There have been whispers about such a deal before to the extent that teams were reportedly asking about him prior to the 2025 trade deadline. He's also the most easily-moveable name given his relatively reasonable contract that isn't as intensely backloaded as some of his counterparts on the active roster. It's an idea that has some merit, but whether the financial savings would do enough to compensate for his departure from the roster is a separate conversation altogether. 

The Case For Trading Jake Cronenworth

Cronenworth is going to cost a shade over $12 million against the payroll through the 2030 season. His original deal was a seven-year, $80 million pact agreed upon ahead of the 2023 campaign. It was deemed a bit of an overpay at the time considering Cronenworth was set to move to first base, a position which didn't entirely fit his skill set, especially considering the power he demonstrated in 2021 (.194 ISO) fell drastically in '22 and has continued to fall since. 

Instead, Cronenworth has had to drive his approach to bring about value at the plate. He was a below-average bat in '23 (91 wRC+) and just a shade over in '24 (105 wRC+) before riding a spike in his walk rate (13.4 BB%) to a 117 wRC+ in 2025, his highest since that 2021 season. The frustrating thing with Cronenworth is that he hasn't been able to parlay that patience into anything meaningful. His ISO bottomed out at .131 in 2025 despite that jump in free passes, without any encouraging signs in the contact trends to accompany it; his barrel rate and hard-hit rate remained fairly in-line with what we'd seen before. And it's not as if he's a top tier defensive player at the keystone. He ranked 67th in Fielding Run Value (-2) at the position after finishing at a -4 mark the previous season. 

At this point, you're paying for the approach, because the power isn't on its way back and the glove hasn't been there in a handful of years in its own right (though bouncing between positions over multiple years likely doesn't help). The Padres need more power. They were a top-10 team in on-base percentage that failed to supplement that presence on base with any kind of impact. Freeing up the $12 million owed to Cronenworth could allow them to reallocate that bit of money toward more of an impact bat that would compliment the lineup more effectively. 

Should the Padres seek to move him, it's hard to imagine too many teams shying away from his market. Enough teams might be willing to pay for that approach and versatility, even if the latter comes with some shortcomings on the defensive end.

The Case Against Trading Jake Cronenworth

Even for a team in financial peril, it's hard to sacrifice stability in the name of $12 million. And despite not regaining the form he showcased over the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Cronenworth has very much been a stable presence for a chaotic organization. 

For one, this is a reliable player. He's appeared in an average of 145 games over the last five seasons. The Padres have lost each of Tatis, Merrill, Bogaerts, and Machado for significant periods over the last few years. Even sans any notable power, the ability to remain in the lineup and bring that steady approach is something that the Padres can't necessarily afford to part with. 

It's hard to overstate the importance of that approach in itself. Sure, the Padres were a top-10 team in OBP, but they ranked only 15th in walk rate. Only Tatis comes anywhere near touching what Cronenworth has provided in terms of patience. On paper, the Padres are a team in possession of impact bats. If Cronenworth can bring that approach to the bottom of the order, the onus transitions to the players atop the lineup to make that matter. 

And, as long as we're considering things that shouldn't be overlooked, the instability wrought by a lack of a permanent defensive home is likely pinning down Cronenworth's ability to find success on the defensive side. One imagines that finding a longer term solution at first base and a suitable backup for the middle infield (beyond a spring training invitee making their way on the roster) would allow him to ply his trade effectively at second base in the way that he did back in 2022. 

At the end of the day, it's a $12 million price tag. That's not terribly cumbersome for most big league organizations, save the Pittsburghs or the Miamis of the world. Sacrificing the things Cronenworth does well to save a fairly minimal amount against the total payroll number doesn't seem like something that would actively work in favor of San Diego, especially given some of their shortcomings on the present roster.

Otherwise, you're filling an entire side of the infield within the confines of the payroll, rather than just one spot. That's an entirely different ballgame.