The Good & Bad Of Robert Suárez's Usage Change

Almost nobody threw more fastballs in 2024 than Robert Suárez. The San Diego Padres' closer rode that pitch and its 99th percentile velocity to 36 saves and a 2.77 ERA. Fine outcomes at the back of the bullpen, to be sure. Ideally, you'd like at least a little variety out of your relief arms. Such variety has manifested in 2025 with the (re)introduction of a changeup. 

It's not a new pitch for Suárez in the traditional sense, though. As recently as 2023, he was a pitcher who demonstrated much more mix in his usage than we became accustomed to last year. Such mix included three pitches. The fastball was still his most utilized pitch that year (38.3 percent), but it was a narrow gap before we got to the change (33.6). The sinker came in at roughly 22 percent of the time. 

That Suárez became so fastball-heavy in '24 carries some logic. By Stuff+, it's represented his best offering since 2022 and checked in as one of the 10 best pitches of that variety last year. While that component remains (and is perhaps even better given a 120 Stuff+ thus far), Suárez has spent the early part of 2025 reintegrating the offspeed: 

That's a pretty tremendous narrowing of the gap in such a short time. The fastball and change account for over 85 percent of the pitches this year. The outcomes reflect the benefits of such variety. And don't.

On the positive side, the massive increase in changeup usage has been a boon to Suárez thus far. It carries a 113 Stuff+. He's generating more chase on that pitch than anything else, which accounts for his highest Whiff% on any individual pitch by a wide margin (41.4 vs. 19.7 for the hard stuff). A primary goal of a reliever is to keep hitters off balance. A fastball bringing roughly 100 MPH cheddar combined with a change bringing a velo dip over 10 percent is enough to do just that. But it hasn't been perfect. 

Suárez allows more barrel contact (7.5 percent barrel rate) and a higher average exit velocity (93.7) than last year. Beyond that, the change isn't doing a whole lot for him overall. The overall whiff rate remains nearly identical to 2024. As does the contact rate. But to say such an evolution in usage is futile would also be an oversimplification. 

With the spike in changeup usage, Suárez has been able to drive up his strikeout rate (30.2 percent). The xBA on the change is only .133 against .255 with the fastball. While rising in a big picture sense, the exit velocity is a few MPH lower against the offspeed than with the fastball. 

The negative side is that hitters are able to key in on the fastball a little bit more. Instead of expecting it all the time and being overmatched, hitters can hunt fastball and strike for quality contact. They're not making a ton of it, but it's been a little bit more impactful compared to last year when they do. At least against last year, when they were looking at virtually one pitch type that had a bit more variety in location. 

Given the rise in punchouts and the limiting of overall baserunners, it at least appears to be a worthy change. Whether Suárez can continue to work through some of the negative components and peripherals associated with it, however, remains to be seen.