The Ice-Cold Padres Offense Needs A Reboot

To start the season, it looked like the Padres' offense was poised for a dominant season. Fernando Tatis Jr. immediately emerged as an MVP candidate, Jackson Merrill was seemingly avoiding a sophomore slump, and the rest of the lineup was doing their jobs. 

The offense peaked on May 10 when San Diego scored a blistering 21 runs against the ice-cold Colorado Rockies. Unfortunately, that was the last we’d see of a flaming hot Padres offense until Tuesday. Not long after that performance, the Padres went on a six-game losing streak, which included five consecutive games with one or fewer runs. 

The offensive struggles have naturally impacted the team's success as well. Although a dominant bullpen and solid rotation have kept the Padres in the thick of the playoff race, the squad has played sub-.500 ball since their May 10 explosion. 

The cool-off started with Fernando Tatis Jr. Through mid-May, it appeared that he was re-establishing himself among the best players in the MLB; now, he will need an exceptional next month to have a chance at making the All-Star Game in July. After May 10, Tatis has slashed .181/.277/.324 with a 20.2% strikeout rate. Low production has followed as he has just four home runs and six RBIs in that span as well. 

However, not all is lost for Tatis Jr. He leads the Padres with 13 home runs and is still slashing .262/.343/.460 on the season. Also, his 14 stolen bases, 1.9 Base Running Value (BsR FanGraphs), and 5.7 Defensive Outs Above Average (DEF Fangraphs) make him a high-value player regardless of offensive output. His .195 BABIP in the last month also suggests that his cold streak is a result of some unlucky hitting. Given his importance in the lineup, the Padres' offense needs him to be a star if they are to get back to winning consistently. 

While Tatis is their’ engine, the true pain of the Padres' offensive struggles lies in all of the supporting stars going cold at the same time. Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, and Jackson Merrill (10 combined all-star appearances) have all hit to a sub-100 wRC+ since May 10. To make matters worse, the surprise breakout bat, Gavin Sheets, has come back to earth with a hard fall and 89 wRC+ in that same time frame. 

To identify the impact of these struggles, look no further than the power numbers. Since that dominant outburst against the Rockies, those four All-Stars have combined for just three home runs. One for each player except Arraez. They have combined for 445 plate appearances in that time, leading to an inconceivable 1/148 home run rate between them. Additionally, the Padres have plummeted to 26th in the MLB in total home runs (57) and 25th in home runs per game (0.86). 

To make matters worse, these Padres’ stars are struggling with low on-base rates and high strikeout rates. Usually, a successful high strikeout player still has power or gets walks, but as of May 10, these batters have displayed neither. Although his wOBA at .275, Merrill has worked just a 6.2% walk rate and 24.8% strikeout rate, giving him the biggest gap on the team since the cold streak started. Sheets is barely any more respectable with a 6.5% walk rate and 20.4% strikeout rate. 

Arraez is unique because he doesn’t strike out ever, even over the last month (1.7% strikeout rate). The issue is that the walk rate, at just 3.4%, is equally notable, but not in a good way. Additionally, a high contact batter can usually hit for a respectable batting average, but unsurprisingly, Arraez has been hitting just .266 since May 10. 

Although the lack of offensive output is what stands out over the last month, there is a reason the Padres have scored enough runs to stay 10 games over .500: Manny Machado. With the whole lineup going downhill, Machado picked the perfect time to become the hottest player in baseball. The six-time All-Star is well on his way to a seventh appearance and deserves a lot of credit for carrying the load. In his 120 plate appearances after May 10, Machado has slashed .324/.383/.556 with a .405 wOBA and 166 wRC+. On top of that, he has hit a power surge, hitting seven home runs in that span and driving in 21 runs. This adds to what has been a brilliant season for Machado. On the year, he is slashing .325/.386/.518 with 10 home runs and a 2.8 WAR, all team highs. 

This rough stretch has not been ideal for the Padres. Four high-salary star players going cold at once, combined with the face of the team falling off a cliff, is difficult for any team to play through. Despite this adversity, a consistent pitching staff and the greatness of Manny Machado have been enough to keep the Padres inside the playoff picture. If Tuesday's offensive outburst can get the squad rolling and the pitching can keep playing their part, a hot streak could be in store for San Diego.