The Padres Are Baseball's Best Home Team, But Their Road Woes Are Concerning

The San Diego Padres remain off to a scorching first-place start. As of 4/23, they sit at 17-7 to start the season with a +35 run differential that comes in as the second-best in the league. They're ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and Arizona Diamondbacks to pace what is, objectively, baseball's toughest division. Just imagine where they'd be if they played all of their games in America's Finest City™. 

The Padres feature a 12-1 record at home, with only a single loss on the books that came against the Chicago Cubs in extra innings back on Jackie Robinson Day. The road, however, has not proven to be as kind to the Friars through their first dozen or so games. At 5-6 away from Petco Park, it's clear that there's a few things working in their own friendly confines against when they're in a less welcoming environment. 

It starts on the offensive side:

At home, the they're averaging 5.2 runs per game. On the road, that average drops to 3.3. Across the board, San Diego is getting more out of their hitters at Petco than at any other ballpark. You could complete such an exercise with a few individual hitters, as well. Gavin Sheets is has a 224 wRC+ through his first 35 plate appearances at home. Jose Iglesias has a 156 figure through 32 PA. From there, you get into your usual suspects. Fernando Tatis Jr (210) and Manny Machado (169) pace the group among healthy regulars. 

Of course, when you flip it to a road perspective, things tail off. With the exception of Tatis Jr, who still sits at a 166 wRC+ away from home, everyone else devolves into a below-average hitter. Machado's at 93, Sheets is at 73, and Iglesias plummets all the way to 39. Overall, the collective lineup features a 128 wRC+ at home against 98 on the road. 

Interestingly, there are a couple of Padres who are performing better away from the home park than they are in San Diego. Through 38 road plate appearances, for example, Luis Arráez is leading the roster with a 197 wRC+ vs. just 61 at home. Xander Bogaerts carries a 76 wRC+ at home against a 137 wRC+ on the road. We'll dive into some of the particulars of that later this week.

While it's not a terribly pleasant picture which to paint from an offensive standpoint, the pitching side of things gets quite a bit worse: 

The starting rotation, in particular, has thrived at home. Each of Michael King (1.62 ERA), Nick Pivetta (0.45), Randy Vásquez (0.82), Kyle Hart (1.82), and Dylan Cease (3.32) have been stellar. When you flip the perspective, though, things get quite ugly quite fast, especially as it relates to three of the current starting group. Vásquez (6.94), Cease (11.00), and Hart (15.88) have been absolutely brutal away from home. Even King (3.97) can't match his home production in quite the same way. 

Because of the overall dominance of the team's relief corps, there isn't a discernible difference between bullpen production home or away. You could observe that Adrian Morejón or Wandy Peralta haven't allowed a run in any of their road appearances, but each also carries a sub-1.50 ERA at home as well. It's the starting group that is of concern at this point. 

While the home-road splits themselves are quite obvious, it's also not something we need to express too much concern over at this juncture, for a couple of different reasons. 

For one, the road environments in which the Padres have landed in thus far are not the most ideal of circumstances, especially for hitters. While Sacramento has been the second-friendliest ballpark for hitters this year, Statcast's Park Factors has Wrigley Field at 16th and Houston at 21st. For right-handed hitters in particular (the team's primary source of offense given injuries), the two parks check in at 21 and 22, respectively. Detroit's at 15th overall and 17th for righties. 

Once the team is through a quick homestand, though, they'll get a bit of relief in their next road environments. Starting in Pittsburgh (18th) won't quite be that, but trips to the Bronx (seventh) and Colorado (fourth) certainly will. They'll also hit Toronto (third) and Atlanta (ninth) before the month of May is out. So, the road parks themselves will lighten up a little bit in terms of offensive viability.

That's also to say nothing of the fact that, at some point, the Padres are going to have Jackson Merrill and Jake Cronenworth back in the mix. Each represents a source of balance for the lineup while also providing the team with a bat that has started out quite well on the road. 

The primary concern moving forward is in the starting pitching. Those splits are vast. And while the healthier, upcoming environments for hitters will play well for them, we do have to express some apprehension about what it could mean for the rotation. Each is still working through some individual components at this stage in the game, but they'll be the ones tasked with getting the Padres back to even on the road.