The Padres' Defense Isn't Holding Up Its End Of The Bargain

When it comes to the issues with analyzing defense in baseball, take your pick.

There are a number of things that are frustrating in attempting to analyze it before the eyes of any hard data. Defensive metrics need the largest sample size of any element in baseball before they begin to stabilize. The metrics themselves are somewhat finicky and don't quantify everything to begin with. So, you're ultimately waiting months to analyze something that doesn't tell you the whole story. 

Fielding Run Value is, at present, as close as we've gotten. It evaluates defense on a run-based scale, incorporating Outs Above Average in terms of range and Throwing Runs in terms of the arm. Catchers have their stuff folded in, as well. Of course, once they stabilize and you get into the actual numbers, you come to yet another realization: they don't look good for the San Diego Padres. 

The Padres don't necessarily have the limitation of sample that we see with other teams because there has been so little turnover. They subtracted Jurickson Profar in left field. By FRV, Jurickson Profar was the seventh-worst outfield defender in baseball last year. Other than that, you're looking at largely the same defensive group that we saw in 2024 (albeit with some injuries to be taken into account). Even in mid-May, we can look at it with a more critical eye.

By FRV (-12), the Padres were the 21st-ranked team in baseball in 2024. Lucky for them, they scored more runs than most of the teams in baseball and were able to reach the postseason regardless. The defense didn't matter in the same way it didn't matter for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who sat tied with them in the FRV game. 

Thus far in 2025, the Padres are... 20th in FRV (-3). The right side of the infield is a particular problem. Jake Cronenworth is at -4, with his range contributing -5 to the calculation. Luis Arráez is at that same -4 mark with that same range issue. Cronenworth has an estimated defensive success rate of 79 percent. He's currently at a 70 percent success rate. Arráez carries an estimated figure of 71 percent. He's at an actual rate of 65. 

And it's not like things get better on the other side of second base. Manny Machado is at -2. Xander Bogaerts sits exactly average (0.). So while Fernando Tatis Jr has been excellent (6 FRV) and Jackson Merrill hasn't quite played enough games to be anything other than average, the infield defense, in particular, appears to be a massive issue for this club.

Which is made even more frustrating when you consider that the pitching staff is still maintaining quality strikeout rates and allowing the second-lowest rate of hard contact. Given the issues, particularly on the range side, you'd think such trends would be ideal. Turns out, they're not.

The Padres being a poor defensive team was hardly an issue last year because they had an offense that scored consistently and a pitching staff that was punching out hitters on both ends of the staff. They were able to compensate effectively. The pitching continues to do its job. However, while the minimal turnover isn't too impactful on the defensive side, given the carryover of starters, it has made the Padres a more top-heavy offense. Profar's gone. The bench contributors are gone.

The result is a much smaller margin for error than the team was working with in 2024. 

While the turnover does allow us to make certain declarations, there are still certain considerations that must be taken into account. Cronenworth missed a month and is still working with a rib injury. Arráez doesn't have an extensive track record as a first baseman. Even Bogaerts is readjusting to his old spot. There is reason to believe that improvement is possible. If it's not, though, trade season is going to heat up. Defensive infrastructure will also be a priority, as the Padres lack the same means of overcoming it that they had last year.