What Does Savant’s New Data On The Padres’ Offense Mean?

We are almost two months into the MLB season, and the confusing Padres’ offense has not become any easier to figure out. On one hand, the lineup has done enough to get the Padres to a 27-21 record entering the final week of May. On the other hand, the offense has relied heavily on a solid pitching staff, as they sit outside the top 15 in runs scored. 

The volatile nature of the Padres' lineup runs deeper than its impact on winning. Superstars Fernando Tatis Jr and Jackson Merrill are crushing the ball to the tune of .900+ OPS seasons, yet middle infielders Xander Bogaerts and Jose Iglesias have struggled with sub-.700 OPS production. Manny Machado and Luis Arraez have been hit machines, each boasting over .300 AVG seasons, yet haven’t been able to bring the power needed to elevate this Padres lineup, as they have just six combined home runs. 

While the Padres' offense is hoping that a healthy Jake Cronenworth (.823 OPS in 94 plate appearances) and the benching of Jason Heyward (.494 OPS) will revitalize a streaky lineup, new bat path data from Baseball Savant can give us insight into what exactly we are seeing from the Padres' sluggers. 

We now have access to new information about players' bats’ attack angle, attack direction, and swing path tilt, providing context to the production we have seen from the Padres' lineup. 

Attack angle measures the vertical angle of the direction of the bat’s barrel when it makes contact with the ball. For example, 5-20 degree angles are ideal with the highest potential to create line drives and deep pop-ups. Low angles closer to zero and negative degrees would result in more ground balls. Higher angles, such as 30 degrees, would likely lead to lazy pop-ups. 

Attack direction refers to the direction of the barrel, on average, when making contact with the baseball. A player with a pull attack direction is more likely to pull the ball, and a player with an opposite attack direction would be more likely to hit the ball to the opposite field. 

These two statistics give us key context when analyzing the production of Padres captains Fernando Tatis Jr and Manny Machado. 

Third baseman Manny Machado has maintained a 7-degree attack angle for the last two seasons. While this is within the 5-20 degree “ideal attack angle” range, it is on the lower end of that scale, and 3 degrees lower than league average (10 degrees). 

Machado combines this attack angle with a flat 0-degree attack direction, meaning his swing is nearly perfectly balanced between pull and opposite field. 

This explains how Machado has had such an odd combination of high production and low slugging in 2025. He maintains a respectable attack angle within ideal range, but at just 7 degrees, and an attack direction that aims right at the deepest part of the field (center field), it’s hard to hit home runs. 

Machado’s consistency in attack angle and centerfield approach can also be a relief to Padres fans. Both statistics display that he is hitting the ball effectively within the ideal attack angle range and sticking to his consistent approach. Still, I wouldn’t expect a 40-home-run season anytime soon. 

The electric Fernando Tatis Jr has begun 2025 with what looks to be his best season since 2021. His OPS is back over .900, and he leads the MLB with a 3.0 WAR. This new data also gives us a look at the changes Tatis has made. 

He took after Machado and began simplifying his approach and trusting his talent. He’s lowered his 2025 attack angle to 7 degrees, the same as Machado, and embraced an opposite-field approach(4 degrees opposite) compared to his 2024 angle of 2 degrees pull side. 

These adjustments have been the catalyst for Tatis to get the most out of his talent thus far. His consistency against both sides of the plate remains, as he maintains those angles within 1 degree against both lefties and righties. He combines that consistency with a team-leading 325 competitive swings to create productive, sustainable success. 

This new data can answer many questions about the 2025 Padres and leave us wondering. All-Star Luis Arraez is one of the most unique talents in the MLB. His low strikeout rates and high batting averages make him a great old-fashioned leadoff man, but his low slugging statistics limit his ceiling as a run producer. 

The newly tracked swing path tilt data gives us a look into what could either be a painful crash in production or an unexpected power surge for Arraez. Unsurprisingly, Arraez has the lowest bat speed on the team at just 62.6 MPH, but he compensates for this with his low strikeout rates. What comes unexpectedly is his team's high swing path tilt. 

Swing path tilt tells us the swing plane angle in the 40 milliseconds (ms) before it contacts the ball. The higher the tilt, the steeper the swing, whereas a low tilt results in a flatter swing. Arraez has by far the highest swing tilt on the team at 37 degrees, something he has done each of the past two seasons. 

This leaves Arraez with untapped power potential that, if harnessed (via increased exit velocity, pull percentage, etc.), could turn him into one of the most dynamic hitters in the game. The alternative outcome is that a low-power player balancing his productivity with a pop-up inducing swing path tilt could come crashing down at any point. 

The Padres' lineup has done enough to get the job done. Only time will tell if these observations hold and the data leads to success, but the goal will remain the same for the offense. Do enough to keep winning games.