What's Behind the Padres' Lack of Home Runs in 2025?

The Padres have had a problem all season. After hitting 190 home runs in 2024, tied for the tenth most in baseball, they have hit just 142 long balls in 2025, the second-fewest in the league. What is going on in San Diego? Why can’t the Padres hit home runs? 

Let’s check out the home run totals among the Padres' regulars between 2024 and 2025 to see how many fewer home runs they’ve hit this season. 

Manny Machado:   2024: 29  2025: 26

Fernando Tatis Jr.:  2024: 21  2025: 23

Jake Cronenworth: 2024: 17  2025: 11

Jackson Merrill:      2024: 24  2025: 15

Luis Arraez:            2024: 4    2025: 7

Xander Bogaerts    2024: 11   2025: 10

Total:                     2024: 106 2025: 92

In total, the Padres’ six consistent members of the lineup between 2024 and 2025 have actually stayed fairly consistent in their power numbers. These six have hit 14 fewer total home runs between 2024 and 2025. Nine of those can be attributed to Merrill, who missed a large chunk of the season with multiple injuries. Cronenworth has also missed time due to injury. Had Cronenworth and Merrill stayed healthy all year, the difference among these six players would likely be negligible.

That leaves the rest of the team. The Padres got 84 home runs from their role players in 2024. In 2025, that number has been cut nearly in half, with only 51 home runs coming from role players.  Does the issue come down to team building? Let’s examine who left the team, who they were replaced by, and how AJ Preller’s offseason moves axed a significant amount of power from the team in 2025. 

In 2024, the Padres got significant production out of Jurickson Profar, who hit 24 home runs as San Diego’s primary left fielder. The replacement for Profar in 2025 was Gavin Sheets, who has 19 bombs this season as a left fielder and designated hitter. Profar’s 24 long balls were a career high in 2024, and similarly, Sheets has hit a career high in home runs this year. 

San Diego probably should have pursued a better power-hitting outfielder in the offseason. Sheets has been solid this year, with a 108 OPS+ and 0.7 bWAR, but his production has not matched Profar's. Looking back, it’s interesting that San Diego did not pivot to a better option in left field when they did not re-sign Profar. It could be because Profar signed with Atlanta so late in the offseason, on January 23; perhaps it was already too late for San Diego to pivot to a better slugger at that point. 

Another position that San Diego lost home runs from in 2025 was the catching position. In 2024, the duo of Kyle Higashioka and Luis Campusano combined for 25 home runs. Again, both players hit career-highs last season. San Diego moved off the 35-year-old Higashioka, which was probably a mistake considering the struggles of their catching tandem in 2025. This season, San Diego’s trio of catchers has combined for 14 home runs. Elias Diaz, Martin Maldonado, and Freddy Fermin have not performed the way the Padres would have hoped. 

Did it make sense for San Diego to let Higashioka walk? Sure, nobody is going to berate the Padres for not re-signing a 35-year-old catcher after his career year. But, replacing him with Diaz and Maldonado, both coming off down years offensively, was the real mistake. 

Similarly, the Padres lost on their gamble to replace utility infielder Ha-Seong Kim with veteran Jose Iglesias. Not only did Kim hit 11 home runs in 2024, but he also reached base at a .330 clip and was worth 2.6 bWAR. The mistake was not necessarily letting Kim walk in free agency. This year, Kim fell apart in Tampa Bay, and while he’s put together a solid 19 games in Atlanta, he's been far from reliable.

The mistake was replacing Kim with Iglesias, who had a magical 2024 season when he made an MLB comeback and played a key role in the Mets’ run towards the NLCS. Betting on Iglesias to replicate that was a mistake. The infielder had the worst year of his career in San Diego, and hit just two home runs in 109 games after hitting four last year in 85 games. 

Ultimately, it appears that the Padres' big mistake was simply letting go of good power hitters and failing to replace them with players of similar talent. While it does make the fan experience a bit less exciting, it has not hurt the Padres too much. They won 93 games last year and will probably finish with around 90 wins this year. They will wind up with the same end result, an NL Wild Card spot.

However, they will likely be missing the crucial home-field advantage in the NL Wild Card series. Perhaps with a few more home runs, San Diego could have won a few more games and been able to win the NL West, or repeat as the NL No. 4 seed to host the Wild Card series like they did last year when they defeated Atlanta. 

If AJ Preller’s failure to add better sluggers in the offseason is going to come back to haunt him, it will likely happen in Chicago. Surely, the Padres will not make the mistake again in the upcoming offseason and will make a marked effort to infuse the lineup with more power.