The Fall Of Elias Diaz & The Padres' Catcher Conundrum

[Greg Spicer]

Coming into the 2025 season, the catcher position was the biggest question mark for San Diego. The Padres began the season with three options. Elias Diaz, who at age 34 is coming off an okay at best season, Martin Maldonado, arguably the worst player in baseball last season, and Luis Campusano, whose slow 2024 dimmed hope that youth would save the day. 

Unfortunately, this problem has only grown in prominence as we enter July. The Padres sit 0.5 games out of the playoffs after their flaming hot start. Most of the roster is filled with players who are either performing great or have a contract or pedigree that will prevent them from being moved off their spot. The one glaring weakness that can be fixed is behind the plate. 

2023 All-Star Game MVP Elias Diaz has had an interesting stint in San Diego. He came in from Colorado for the second half of last season and gave the squad respectable short-term production. His experience at age 33, pop, and solid defense made him a viable backup as he slashed .190/.290/.429 and defended at 3.9 defensive outs above average (FanGraphs). Given his competent 2024 season and being just one season removed from a 2023 where he exploded with a .267/.316/.409 line, 14 home runs, and 72 RBI, there was enough for the Padres to justify giving him the starting spot. 

That decision is not aging well. As June wraps up, Diaz is hitting .206/.278/.313 with a 26% strikeout rate, significantly higher than his 2024 number of 19.7%. The pop has not been there either, with just four home runs in 177 plate appearances. His struggles have been especially notable as San Diego has no lefty platoon catcher to help him get favorable matchups, and backup Maldanado has fared even worse at the plate. Because of this, Diaz and his struggles have nowhere to hide on the Padres roster. 

When taking a deeper dive, it appears that scouting reports have been updated against Diaz, and his weaknesses are now being exposed. During his 2023 all-star season, Diaz got to face 1026 fastballs, which he hit to the tune of a .342 wOBA. Now in 2025, he is seeing a higher percentage of breaking balls than he has in his whole career (37%) and hitting them at career-low rates. So far against breaking pitches, Diaz has a .141 xBA, .171 xSLG, and .187 wOBA.

As a result, Padres catchers sit 29th in MLB at 62 wRC+. Thankfully, the only way to go is up, and even a minor upgrade at catcher could lead to many more wins. Here are some of the Padres' options going forward. 

Stick With Elias Diaz
Although everything discussed above is true, there are still minor signs to hold out hope for a turnaround in the second half. Diaz’s topped ball percentage is back below 30% for the first time in years, meaning he is putting the ball in the air. With his history of pop, that is a good sign that he’s due for a power surge. Also, while the breaking ball statistics for 2025 are scary, they appear to be outliers in his career. He hasn’t hit sub .200 in xBA, xSLG, or wOBA against breaking pitches since 2022, and that was the only other time of his career struggling to that extent. 

A few fly balls that catch the barrel and fly out of the park, coupled with a natural adjustment to get him back towards his career averages against breaking pitches would certainly be enough to get the Padres over that 0.5 game hump. 

The One That Got Away
The best move for San Diego would’ve been to snag White Sox catcher Matt Thaiss earlier in the season. He ended up getting moved to the Rays for almost nothing (a 25-year-old with a 33 wRC+ in Triple A). 

Thaiss is a lefty bat who would’ve slotted right into a platoon position with Diaz taking Maldanado’s spot on the roster. Thais’s season has been highlighted by his .385 OBP and 108 wRC+, leading to a 1.0 WAR. On top of his solid individual talent, bringing in a lefty platoon would’ve also elevated Diaz. Giving Thais the majority of at-bats against righties, Diaz could’ve focused more on hitting lefties, whom he has fared slightly better against this season and much of his career. 

Make A Different Platoon Move
While missing out on lefty catchers such as Matt Thaiss and Reese McGuire limits the Padres' options in terms of available platoon bats, some others could be worth acquiring for a very cheap price. Omar Narvaez and Tucker Barnhart are two experienced catchers looking for a roster spot in 2025. They have a 1.071 and .875 OPS, respectively, against righties in limited appearances this season. With these hot starts, combined with Narvaez's history as an all-star and Barnhart's history as a Gold Glove defender, either one could be a lottery ticket worth scratching. 

Call Up Campusano
Keep an eye out here in the coming days, as we will be exploring a feature piece on Campusano and whether he's a viable second-half option behind the dish.

Big Splash
If the Padres wanted to do a full 360 on their weak catcher position, they could add another All-Star to their lineup and pursue William Contreras. The Brewers have been known to deal high-level players instead of paying them, and he would fit very nicely in the Padres' lineup. His slight struggles this season could drop him back into the Padres' price range, and he would certainly be cheaper than last season's All-Star acquisition, Tanner Scott. This year, Contreras is hitting .252/.358/.353 while playing defense at 4.7 outs above average (FanGraphs). He has also proven himself consistently productive at the plate with two All-Star appearances in the last three seasons. His 123 wRC+ and 12.7 WAR since joining the Brewers would deepen the Padres' lineup and give them consistency at a spot they desperately need.

Padres fans would certainly like to see the front office have an aggressive deadline. With the season moving quickly and an airtight playoff race, time will tell if the Padres can do enough behind the plate to get over the hump. 

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