Can the Padres Justify Buying and Selling at the Trade Deadline?

[Randy Holt]

Two things can be true. In this case, the San Diego Padres are poised to be buyers ahead of this month's July 31 trade deadline. Recent rumors, however, have pointed to the idea that they could also be sellers. It's a difficult balance to strike, but when you have leadership as aggressive as A.J. Preller, it's not an unreasonable (or unrealistic) concept. 

The team has very obvious needs. They need a left fielder. They need a catcher. They need help on the bench. Perhaps the pitching staff could get a bump in the form of some additional depth. It's foolhardy to think a team can address all of their needs in this mid-season window, but it stands to reason that the team could make marginal improvement (at worse) in a majority of those areas considering some of the names available. 

However, there's also the matter of increasing chatter that the team could aim to move on from multiple contracts, largely courtesy of Dennis Lin's column at The Athletic. Dylan Cease is the name at the forefront of such discussion, as he's set to become a free agent after the season. His name has garnered more attention over the last 48 hours or so. Closer Robert Suárez has a player opt-out that could lead to him testing the market as well. Luis Arráez represents another impending free agent, with rumors swirling (as relayed by Lin in the above column) that contenders are also interested in Jake Cronenworth.

Those are some absolutely massive names on this roster. Your purported staff ace, your closer, and the starting right side of your infield. Even if Preller were to get active in moving major league talent from the roster in order to even out the collective, it's unlikely all four find new homes in the next week. 

But what if they did? 

Unrealistic as it may be, there's an argument to be made that leaning heavily into the selling side of things makes a large degree of sense for San Diego. This is an organization without a lot of talent in the upper minors. MLB Pipeline ranked the Padres 25th in their pre-season farm system rankings, while FanGraphs struck an even more dour tone by putting them 28th. There isn't a pathway for the team to improve the roster organically before roughly 2028. 

Which is to say nothing of the team's continued payroll restraints. Even if certain players and their respective salaries were to walk after the year, it's unlikely that the organization is going to be in a spot where they will actually deploy such savings in order to seek significant outside additions. Instead, that'll likely be another tool utilized to pin down payroll. 

Those two factors have the ability to rapidly catapult the Padres toward a certain kind of purgatory. Sure, you have the stars on your roster locked down for the long-term. They'll keep you interesting. But, even the game's biggest names still need to be supplemented appropriately in order to drive success for a roster. The Padres simply do not have the tools in order to do that at present, to the point where leaning more on selling than buying could go beyond being arguable. It could be necessary.

It wouldn't be a seamless process. It remains to be seen if a contender will be interested in Luis Arráez's hit tool. Perhaps the fact that he's not tied to a long-term commitment could drive some interest given his ability to hit his way on base. And I've already opined that Cronenworth represents the most unreasonable to move among those mentioned or possible. His contract isn't burdensome enough to justify removing that production from the bottom half of the lineup... which is probably why contenders are interested. Cease & Suárez, however, represent desirable players for virtually any and all prospective contenders.

Cease has had an uneven season, but the stuff is still very much present. A contender isn't going to shy away from that skill set just because he's staring down a 3-10 record on the year. His Whiff% (34.3) is in the 94th percentile and his K% (30.0) is in the 89th. Suárez, his 100 MPH fastball, and league-leading save count are a no-brainer acquisition for virtually any club in playoff position. 

Any of the four have the ability to bring back multiple players of varying skill sets and abilities. Arráez might be more likely to bring back a post-hype prospect or fringe-type. Cronenworth, should they choose to move him, could yield more. Cease & Suárez, though, could be worth truly premium returns considering the vast need for pitching on both sides from virtually everywhere and the respective upside that each possesses. 

Why, though, would a contending team trade away such important pieces? 

There's a rationale here that the team could remain on a similar trajectory as they are at present without the likes of Cease or Suárez or even Arráez (Cronenworth's context remains just a little bit different). On the Cease front, the team has staved off an injury to Michael King and an extended absence from Yu Darvish in piecing together a reasonably-performing staff. It's been imperfect, but with Darvish now back in the fold, there's an argument to be made that the team could part Cease's uneven performance and continue to manage with the likes of Randy Vásquez, Stephen Kolek, and Ryan Bergert. It's a flimsy one, but it's an argument nonetheless, especially if you get back the value his upside indicates you could to improve the roster elsewhere. 

In Suárez's case, it's a little firmer of an argument. The Padres have an elite bullpen. It stands to reason that any of Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, or Adrian Morejón could be due for an expanded role. We'll likely see such a scenario play out in 2026 anyway, as each of the trio remains under team control through at least next year.

The positional side of things is a little more difficult to navigate. The Arráez of it all is as enigmatic as his overall performance. Despite continuing to rack up singles, he's provided little overall value by wRC+ (103) or on the defensive side. But, that hit tool and his history could be tantalizing for the right club that needs just a little bit more contact in their lineup. Cronenworth, again, is in a different situation given his contract and more varied production he brings into the fold. 

Again, the way in which the Padres could approach the deadline will be an extremely difficult needle to thread. Teams don't typically explore both sides of the strategy this time of year. But when you consider the context in which the Padres find themselves, the logic becomes increasingly clear.

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