As Padres' Offense Rises, Manny Machado is Going the Other Direction

[Randy Holt]

From May 16 through the end of July, the San Diego Padres were one of the worst offensive teams in Major League Baseball. They ranked 26th in runs (249), 23rd in batting average (.242), 21st in on-base percentage (.310), and 24th in team wRC+ (93). Their already modest power output was better than only the Pittsburgh Pirates (.125 ISO), while their quality of contact (measured by Hard-Hit% in this case) checked in ahead of only the Cleveland Guardians (35.9 percent). 

Since the start of August, though, the offense has started to take multiple steps in the correct direction. This month, the team is up to 15th in runs scored (86), eighth in average (.257), fourth in OBP (.341), and eighth in wRC+ (117). Though they've been led by deadline acquisitions Ramón Laureano (174 wRC+) and Ryan O'Hearn (147), holdovers Jake Cronenworth (136), Jackson Merrill (119), and Fernando Tatis, Jr. (117) have started to find consistent success at the plate. It's a key turnaround at a crucial time for a team making a run at not just a playoff spot, but the National League West outright. 

It's been imperfect, of course. Few teams fire on all offensive cylinders simultaneously, and the Padres are not an exception in this regard. This is especially true considering one of the team's offensive catalysts has spent this month heading in the opposite direction of many of his comrades. 

In a broad sense, Manny Machado is having his best offensive year since 2022. His slash reads .292/.353/.484 with a 135 wRC+, a 17.6 strikeout rate, and an 8.5 percent walk rate. You have to go back three years, at minimum, to find such fine work from the team's third baseman. The power has waned in the big picture (.192 ISO), but he's also been prone to incredibly torrid stretches, including a .283 ISO for the month of July. The percentiles look really strong for a player with a lot of mileage at this stage of his career: 

Since August 1, though, Machado has disappeared at the plate. 

His .229 average, .299 on-base percentage, .100 ISO, and 81 wRC+ are all single-month lows for 2025. And while his walk rate (9.1 percent) serves as his second-best mark across a single month, his 22.1 K% is easily the highest rate he's posted. It's been a brutal month for Machado, but this stretch manifested in the worst possible way against the Los Angeles Dodgers last weekend. With the division lead on the line, Machado went just 1-for-12 against the division rivals with a trio of strikeouts and a walk. 

What exactly is plaguing Machado this month, however, is somewhat difficult to discern. 

The first place one tends to look is at the plate discipline numbers. From an approach standpoint, there hasn't been a significant change. Between the first handful of months of '25 and these three weeks in August, Machado is swinging and chasing at similar rates to what we've seen all year. His overall Swing% is up by less than a percent, and his chase rate is actually down in August, although only just. 

What Machado is doing more of this month is whiffing. His SwStr% has climbed about two percent this month with fewer called strikes. Are we seeing a touch too much aggression on his part? That's a possible factor. So is bat speed: 

The above visual isn't too difficult to sort; Machado's speed is at its lowest point for the entire year. Among the bat tracking metrics, that's the one with the biggest shift. There has been some variance in swing path and attack angle, but not remotely to the degree to which his bat speed has fallen. And the results are indicative of the speed drop more than anything else. His average exit velocity is down about two percent, his hard-hit rate is roughly nine percent lower, and his barrel rate has fallen by about six percent. 

When you talk about a decline in contact and a sharp dip in quality of contact against the backdrop of a serious bat speed decline, then the possible source of such a performance drop over a stretch as we've seen from Machado becomes fairly obvious. 

The only question is whether this is something biological or mechanical. If this is wear on Machado at this point in the season, then overcoming the dip becomes much more difficult. A healthy dose of rest, non-ideal as it may be during a chase for a division crown, would have to be in the cards. But, if there's something in the approach that is making him less confident and decisive within the zone or a swing component slowing his swing down (with the former being more likely), then you can look to overcome that with pointed, purposeful changes.

And overcome is exactly what the Padres will need Machado to do. With another Dodgers series on the horizon and the playoffs looking like a surer thing with each passing day, they need their catalyst to be firmly in the mix. Ideally, sooner rather than later.

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