Power Output From Key Names Driving Padres' Offensive Success in Second Half

[Randy Holt]

Sitting just 2.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West and five games clear of the New York Mets in the NL Wild Card, it's as close to a certainty as ever that the San Diego Padres will be playing postseason baseball. Of course, it hasn't been an easy road to get to even this point, mostly due to the offense. 

If you've followed this space for any length of time, you know that the offensive woes have been a central focus. And it's come for a variety of reasons. Injuries (Xander Bogaerts, Jackson Merrill), down years (Luis Arráez), and inconsistency (Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado) are all sprinkled across the spectrum, with each factor working together to prevent the Padres from, well, working together. It feels like this is a team that has failed to be on the same page at the plate at virtually any point this season.

Even now, as the team has started to post runs at a higher rate, it doesn't quite yet feel like they've reached that point, regardless of what the numbers say. As such, the turnaround has been somewhat quiet. What that doesn't do, however, is undermine the notable change that has occurred in this group in the second half. 

The first half iteration of the Padres was a group that was impressive in virtually zero ways. The following is where they sat, collectively, regarding a handful of key offensive categories: 

• AVG: .246 (17th)
• OBP: .315 (17th)
• ISO: .129 (28th)
• K%: 18.9 (3rd)
• BB%: 8.7 (14th)
• Contact%: 79.0 (6th)
• Hard-Hit%: 36.7 (29th)
• wRC+: 96 (16th)

Despite striking out at one of the league's lowest rates and creating contact at one of the highest, the team was unable to parlay that into much meaningful contact. It's not particularly surprising, though.

Merrill was out for a good chunk of the first half. Each of Tatis Jr. & Machado struggled to gain traction. Bogaerts got off to a brutal start. Arráez merely existed. To say nothing of the fact that this team was rolling out names like Brandon Lockridge, Jason Heyward, and Martín Maldonado early on (none of which are still with the organization). Quality contact begets offensive impact, and the Padres were unable to create much of the former, leading to little surprise in their inability to manifest the latter. 

While the second-half Padres haven't been entirely able to erase the memory of their offensive ineptitude from the first half, they've certainly shown growth: 

• AVG: .262 (5th)
• OBP: .331 (5th)
• ISO: .149 (24th)
• K%: 18.8 (3rd)
• BB%: 8.1 (17th)
• Contact%: 78.7 (6th)
• Hard-Hit%: 38.9 (24th)
• wRC+: 112 (7th)

With the exception of the walk rate, which has dipped slightly, the Padres have shown collective growth across the board. Some good fortune has played a role — the team BABIP'd .285 in the first half against .304 in the second — but they've upped the flyball rate by a couple percent on their way to creating 20 points more worth of isolated power in the second half. The increase in the resulting production is due to a couple of key factors. 

One is the arrival of Ramón Laureano. While his former Baltimore comrade Ryan O'Hearn hasn't experienced the same level of success, the outfielder has helped bring stability to the left side of the Petco Park grass in slashing .281/.335/.510 and posting a 127 wRC+ that sits as the best among regulars in the second half. 

The team is also getting more out of names that were already on the roster. After a first half that featured multiple injured list stints and an absence of power, Jackson Merrill has bumped his ISO by more than 70 points in the second half (.225). After being benched initially following the Orioles' acquisitions, Gavin Sheets is ISO'ing .212 in the second half, while Fernando Tatis Jr. has his up to .250 in September. Machado's is at .277. So while someone like Arráez is always going to be a ghost in the impact game and names like Jake Cronenworth or Xander Bogaerts are past providing much on that side, there's a certain rounding into form that's taking place within the lineup, particularly this month. 

And that is, ultimately, what has changed with the Padres in the second half. Aside from a key trade acquisition, they're simply getting more out of the bats that they were expecting to get more out of. It's hard to imagine, given how the season has transpired, but if the team is, in fact, getting on the same page at the same time, it could serve as quite a springboard as we head into an October in which the Padres will be participating.

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