The Future of Yu Darvish Is Beginning to Sound Ominous

[Randy Holt]

The San Diego Padres have work to do in their starting rotation this winter. Dylan Cease is a free agent. So is Nestor Cortes Jr. (though his second-half dud of a tenure made a reunion pursuit unlikely, anyway). Michael King carries a mutual option, meaning he's a virtual certainty to opt out. While they will be getting Joe Musgrove back early in 2026, the Padres have, on paper, only Nick Pivetta, Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron, and JP Sears set to return. And your mileage may vary on how much confidence the organization has in any or all of those arms.

Further complicating the situation is the impending future of Yu Darvish. His name does, officially, belong on the list of starting-caliber arms the Padres have set to return for next season. His contract runs through 2028 at a fairly reasonable price point of $15 million. The likelihood of Darvish completing the duration of that contract, however, is a matter of conjecture at this point. 

Multiple reports, to say nothing of the words that have come directly from A.J. Preller's mouth, are indicative of a player unsure about his future in Major League Baseball. Preller noted that he'd talked to Darvish multiple times already this offseason and planned to continue doing so. Darvish himself was noncommittal about his future following his one-inning disaster of a start in the wild card series against the Chicago Cubs back on October 2. Therein, Darvish was unable to work through a second inning as he allowed four hits and left with the bases loaded.

That type of struggle was, of course, somewhat familiar to Darvish in 2025. Once he returned to the mound, that is.

Getting on the mound was a hurdle itself, as Darvish struggled with fatigue and elbow inflammation to start the year. He didn't make his debut until July and made 15 starts for the year. Across those 15 outings, he threw 72.0 innings to the tune of a 5.38 ERA and 4.82 FIP. While his walk rate sat at his best rate since 2022 (6.4 percent), his strikeout rate continued its steady decline, falling to a career-low 23.0 percent. Darvish did remain adept at limiting hard contact, including an average exit velocity that was in the 91st percentile (87.3 percent) and a hard-hit rate in the 95th (33.0 percent). 

In addition to his newfound inability to miss bats, longevity was also an issue for Darvish. He averaged only 4.8 innings a start, failing to work out of the fourth inning twice and out of the fifth inning on six occasions. That's not terribly surprising given the health setbacks, but it also added an extra burden to a bullpen that was already working against efficiency issues from other starters within the San Diego rotation. 

With all of that considered, it's unsurprising that Darvish might be considering stepping away from the game, especially when you factor in the fact that he'll be 40 years old in the second half of next year. And while it's difficult to describe him as a genuine asset to the starting five at this point considering the lack of whiff and lack of efficiency start-to-start, his departure would represent another gap in a rotation that the Padres were already going to have to work hard to fill this winter. 

Now, none of this is to say that we should be ready to declare the Padres rotation would be better sans Darvish. Starting pitching is difficult enough to find as it is. But there's an argument to be made, at least, that more upside exists elsewhere than in the right arm of Yu Darvish at present.

Ideally, there's a resolution on this front in the not-too-distant future either way. Already needing to bring in a couple of fresh faces for the rotation (to say nothing of depth), A.J. Preller surely wants to have as much clarity around his needed direction as possible.

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