Padres Offensive Struggles

[Cruz Gonzalez]

The game of baseball has become obsessed with the home run, but the 2026 San Diego Padres have been winning without it. Through the first 24 games of the season, the Padres rank 26th in MLB with just 18 home runs and towards the bottom as well in team batting average, hitting just .229, below what is considered league average.

Through this lack of offense, they have been able to keep a 16-8 record, which puts them tied at the top of the NL West with the big bad Dodgers. The Padres' success this year has been built on pitching, which has been good enough to win and keep them in games. Their starting pitching has been solid, and their bullpen has been electric. It feels like after 7 innings, if they have the lead, they can hand it to their high-leverage guys to finish the game off, and end it with Mason Miller, who has been nothing short of dominant. But will this be able to keep them winning games? As a team, no. Their hard hit rate is only 40%, and their expected batting average is .240 or so, meaning it's not that much higher than their actual batting average. If they want to have a chance to contend for a division title and a chance to make a title run in the playoffs, they're going to need some action from their stars.

Ferando Tatis Jr is yet to hit a home run in the 2026 MLB season, leaving him as one of the only big names left in the game without a tater. Fernando had a slow start to the season, but lately has had a hard hit percentage of 66% and is the only Padres player to have an average exit velocity of over 90 mph. He has been hitting balls hard of late, but just hasn't been able to find holes. Similarly, both Xander Bogaerts and Ramon Laureano have both had great starts to the season, with Laureano slugging .459 and leading the team in barrels, giving the Friars a clear leadoff hitter at least for the time being, and Xander Bogaerts, who is .276 with hard outs, and an expected batting average of .307.

But the problem lies with the rest of the lineup, who have struggled to start the season. Gavin Sheets, who came out red hot in spring training, seems to be struggling to find a consistent groove, despite providing walk-off magic in the form of a grand slam. Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth, two veterans, have both been slow to start the year, which is not ideal for the team. The season is still young, and this team has too much talent to spend the entire year in a slump.

Time will eventually allow for Fernando Tatis Jr to break out with a home run, and if history proves itself in any way, once we see one, the floodgates may still open for an MVP-calibre season. The rest of the stars just need to find their groove and have confidence in their pitching. The Padres have a chance to be one of, if not the best, teams in baseball if they can elevate their offense. And if they can, there's no telling how far they can go.