Gavin Sheets Is Elevating His Contact & Performance

[Randy Holt]

To say that Gavin Sheets got off to a poor start here in 2026 might be overstating the situation. After all, he did finish April above the average threshold in wRC+ (110). For a San Diego Padres team starved for consistency on the offensive side, though, it was definitely an output that left something to be desired. 

Sheets' first month of the season was propped up heavily by his power output. He struck out 22.0 percent of the time against a mere 4.4 percent walk rate. That type of spread doesn't lend itself to regular contribution. As such, the power (.244 ISO) represented the only meaningful production Sheets was able to offer the Friars. That ISO figure trailed only Luis Campusano among Padres hitters in March & April, though Sheets' number came with nearly twice the plate appearances. In terms of total contributions, things have certainly shifted for Sheets here in May. 

Here is the breakdown of Sheets' performance between the season's first month and his work this month:

• March/April: .233/.275/.477, 22.0 K%, 4.4 BB%, 110 wRC+
• May: .302/.434/.674, 18.9 K%, 18.9 BB%, 209 wRC+

It's not just that Sheets has been better; he's been obscenely good in general. No qualifying hitter in the sport has a better wRC+ than Sheets' 209 and only two have posted a higher ISO over halfway through the month than his .372 mark (Byron Buxton & Kyle Schwarber). How Sheets has managed to drive up his numbers in such an impressive way isn't any sort of mystery. 

For one, he's become more patient. Sheets' swing rate in April was 46.8 percent before dropping to 38.1 thus far in May. The chase rate has come down along with that overall decline in swings, falling from 37.2 percent to 31.3 percent between the two months. That increased patience has (obviously) allowed him to drop his strikeout rate while driving the walk rate way up, but it's also allowed him to do more with the contact that's being made. More specifically, it's allowing him to find the portions of the zone that are going to yield the most positive outcomes. 

The below visual is of Sheets' swing rates in and around the strike zone in March & April:

It's not a bad trend, mind you, where many of those swings wind up. But there's also a lot of work down in the zone that's going to result in a heavy volume of groundball contact. Meanwhile, this is where Sheets is swinging to this point in May:

There's been a much heavier emphasis on not only the inner portion of the zone, but avoiding those lower areas that have caused him trouble in the past. With not a ton of variable change with respect to pitch types, we can attribute the improved patience to his ability to lock in on more impactful portions of the zone. The areas of emphasis in the second visual (middle-middle and middle-in) are where we typically see his power manifest. 

That trend is present in the elevation of Sheets' contact over these past handful of weeks. After going for a groundball rate over 45 percent in April, he's down to 36 percent in May. His fly-ball rate, meanwhile, has experienced an eleven percent leap up to 30.3 in May. The quality of contact was always there, but his lack of discipline wasn't allowing it to be maximized. By honing in his approach and gaining control of the zone, he's been able to elevate his game to a fairly drastic extent, much to the Padres' benefit.

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