San Diego Padres' Lack Of Punch Is Threatening To Tank Season

[TomCent]

Freddy Fermin was the San Diego Padres’ offense over the weekend. His performance exposed just how low the hitting group has fallen in 2026.

The light-hitting catcher drove in five of the club's six runs in a three-game set against the New York Mets. He clubbed a pair of two-run home runs and hit an RBI double — all after being asked to lay down sacrifice bunts each of his first two times up Saturday. Only one other Padre collected an extra-base hit in the series: Fernando Tatis Jr., who doubled in the finale on Sunday.

The inability to slug is one of the biggest things killing this team. The Padres entered their series against the Reds last in the majors with a .644 OPS and .355 slugging percentage and tied with the Colorado Rockies for 29th with an 85 wRC+. They were last in total bases by a wide margin — 63 behind the 29th-place Tampa Bay Rays and 64 behind the 28th-place Mets.

This is not a raw power issue, even though it might seem that way now that Fermin has twice as many homers as Tatis. The Padres entered this week's play 20th in the league with 65 home runs, but they were also 29th with 83 doubles and tied for 17th with seven triples. That comes out to 155 extra-base hits. Only the Rays (150) had hit fewer. The club's league-worst 6.9 hits per game would be forgivable if more of them did damage. San Diego was 23rd with a .141 ISO.

How can this situation be, specifically the lack of doubles and triples, when Petco Park's outfield is spacious in the gaps and the lineup is led by accomplished veterans?

The simplest explanation is that the hitters just aren't good enough as a group. Their 40.6 percent hard-hit rate was tied for eighth in MLB entering Monday, but their 18.3 percent line-drive rate was 26th and their 45.3 percent ground-ball rate was tied for the second-worst. Maybe that's a consequence of being bad against all pitches; they rank in the bottom 10 in Statcast's pitch run value (via Fangraphs) against all types of fastballs and breaking balls. Their best ranking is 18th against changeups.

On top of that, they’re hitting in some bad luck. According to Baseball Savant, the Padres’ xSLG through 64 games was .392, 19th:-best in the league and almost 40 points better than the real-life production. And luck bit the Friars hard last weekend. Twice on Sunday, Mets outfielders robbed Padres hitters of extra bases. 

First, left fielder MJ Melendez laid out in to snag a second-inning Miguel Andujar liner that was heading toward the corner.

Later, center fielder A.J. Ewing ran down a Xander Bogaerts drive in the eighth that likely would have scored two runs and given the Padres a legitimate chance at a comeback.

But, luck or no luck, the fact is the lineup is packing the weakest punch in baseball and is canceling out the team's strong defense and bullpen.

The Padres have a huge opportunity this week to muscle up. They have three games each against the Cincinnati Reds (home).and Baltimore Orioles (away), clubs that entered Monday's play ranked in the bottom five in runs allowed. If they get shut down against those staffs, then this group surely will be beyond help. Everything will need to be on the table — benchings, demotions, panic trades. The time for trust and patience will be over.

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