After Brutal Loss & Sweep, The Padres Feel Like A Team On The Brink Of Collapse

[Randy Holt]

To their credit, the San Diego Padres were never supposed to be in the mix as long as they were. 

They spent the first month of the season flirting with first place in the National League West and have since remained involved as a key component of the NL Wild Card race. In the midst of budget woes that led to the halfway construction of their rotation and an inability to address their offensive depth — along with massive struggles from key elements of their lineup — that they are this relevant in the playoff picture this late in the year is something of a feat. At this particular time, though, it's looking like the game may be up in America's Finest City.

Coming off a sweep of a first-place Atlanta team last week, one might have thought the vibes would be up as they hit the weekend for one of two consecutive turns against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite a win in the series opener, they went on to lose that series in rather convincing fashion. Those weekend struggles were further compounded with a trip to Wrigley Field that resulted in a sweep against a Chicago Cubs team that simply could not stop hitting home runs against the Padres' increasingly woeful pitching staff. 

The nature of those losses made things worse. The weekend set against the Dodgers included a 15-3 loss that followed their lone win of the series. Against the Cubs this week, Padres pitching allowed five home runs to Cub hitters on Tuesday and eight in Wednesday's 22-3 loss. They weren't cheap shots, either, as catcher Rodolfo Durán was pressed into pitching duty for the second time in five games. It's the kind of game that spins a team out entirely.

Now, the Padres find themselves at an inflection point. They're two games back of one of the NL's three Wild Card spots and are attempting to stave off the Arizona Diamondbacks to retain the second-place position in the NL West. This does not, however, have the look of a team up for the challenge. If anything, they're a team at a point where faltering further could not only dictate their fortunes for the remainder of 2026 but beyond it. 

That's not to say the Padres are completely out of the Wild Card race or poised to sell at the trade deadline. Either one is possible, sure. Instead, the point is that the team has the look and feel of a team that was already held together in rather precarious fashion and, as a result, could be staring down a reckoning of that faulty construction. 

The Padres are last in the league in their collective wRC+ (89), with a team batting average (.223), on-base percentage (.299), and isolated power (.146) that all sit at or near the bottom of the league. Even with a recent ascent from Fernando Tatis Jr. and steady play from Ty France, there isn't a saving grace coming for this offense. Manny Machado has his power output up but almost nothing else to supplement it, while Jackson Merrill is stuck in an offensive spiral from which there appears no escape. The stalwarts aren't coming through, and there never was enough to compensate for that possibility elsewhere on the roster. 

Some teams can do so with their pitching staff. The Friars' starting staff, however, is 24th in the league in fWAR (3.8), with an ERA (4.59), FIP (4.53), and walk rate (9.6 percent) that all sit among the six or seven worst teams in the sport. Even a quality bullpen led by Mason Miller and Adrian Morejon can't make up that kind of ground. If anything, the need for volume out of the bullpen will eventually sap it of some of its value as the season progresses. 

It's a big ask for any leadership group, but it also remains to be seen if first-year manager Craig Stammen has the managerial chops to lead them through the impending storm. Questions persist about his handling of the pitching staff and choice of coaches for the staff (especially Steven Souza Jr. as the team's hitting coach given their offensive ineptitude). There isn't a whole lot to indicate stability on that front.

As such, there are simply no solutions coming for this team in 2026, and that's a quandary that extends into the long term. The contracts on the books aren't looking any better. Their farm system is one of the league's most underwhelming, a byproduct of A.J. Preller's prior years of aggression. Unless the team's new ownership is going to lead to an injection of financing for the roster (and even that is complicated by impending labor negotiations for the league), there's a perilous outcome awaiting San Diego in the form of professional sports purgatory.

This feels like a conversation we've had around the Padres before. Preller has managed to wriggle his way out of jams in the past with an exciting addition that benefits the club in the present, but he has fewer resources at his disposal to do so again. If the Padres continue their slide into the coming weeks, his ambition is rendered moot anyway. Even then, "selling" would be only modest, as there isn't likely to be much of a market for their collection of inflated contracts and below-average performers. That's where the looming threat of purgatory begins to manifest: when you have a middling roster but no obvious pathway toward short- or long-term improvement.

The Padres are in a stretch where they play 17 consecutive games ahead of the All-Star break. They've already played three against the Dodgers and have another four coming against them this weekend. It's then four games against the Diamondbacks and three against the Toronto Blue Jays to close out the first half. That's the class of the league and two teams also trying to remain afloat, meaning that the schedule in this tough stretch isn't going to do the Friars any favors. 

Which means that by the time the break hits, we could have a pretty clear picture of where things stand with the Padres. But it's difficult to be optimistic about the shape of that picture. This team was flawed in its construction and held together in a way that was asking a lot of the roster and the coaching staff. A continued stretch of listless play could spell doom in 2026 and the state of the roster doesn't offer up much room for hope beyond it. 

There are two directions in which the season goes from here. One requires near-immediate improvement from the key components of the roster and any of the number of middling options in the starting rotation. The other, as a result, feels more likely... and more dire. 

View full article