Three Burning Questions Padres Must Answer Before Wild Card Round

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

No team really has a way to control the pace. Over a long season, you never know how they will arrive in October in terms of rhythm and injuries. The mere fact of being able to compete in September should be a reason for celebration for many organizations. But there are others that were built to reach the postseason stage, and the San Diego Padres have been one of them. Nothing less was expected, and the way they are playing baseball at the doorstep of the playoffs has raised expectations even further.

It is almost certain that the Padres will face the Chicago Cubs in one of the National League Wild Card Series, an opponent who has given them lots of trouble recently. Chicago has won five of six games this season while posting an enormous +27 run differential. That would not be an ideal matchup given the strength of their offense.

But even if they dodge that bullet as the Cubs quietly collapse down the stretch, there are some pressing questions this team must answer before officially starting their quest for a World Series trophy.

Let’s break down some of the most important ones.

Who should be the Game 2 starter after Michael King?

Let’s start at the beginning of the chaos. When the trade deadline ended, this question seemed less complicated. The Padres reinforced themselves with 2021 American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and All-Star Casey Mize. Both arrived in San Diego with the goal of aiding a rotation besieged injuries that was surviving thanks to the great strength and durability of the bullpen.

Even so, Padres starters posted a 4.62 xFIP and 4.3 fWAR in 112 starts during the first half of the season. The numbers have worsened to a 4.70 ERA and only 1.6 fWAR since. The two arms that were expected to be a strength have been precisely the most vulnerable. In 17 starts, Mize and Ray have combined for –0.5 fWAR, a 5-5 record and a 5.72 ERA with 55 strikeouts, 43 walks and 17 home runs allowed. Only five of the 17 starts have been quality starts, and thanks to the Padres’ dominant relief corps, those numbers have not looked worse in the final results of the games.

In Mize’s nine starts, the Padres are 6-3 and have been able to salvage two of the outings in which he allowed at least four runs. Ray, although he has also been bombarded, has at least recorded five innings in six of his eight starts. His status as a left-hander could also fit against lineups with several left-handed hitters like the Cubs, but with what we have seen from both pitchers, the Padres will have to decide whether they feel comfortable trusting either in a short series.

So, it is very likely that Walker Buehler or Nick Pivetta will compete for that spot as the Game 2 starter. Pivetta just returned from the injured list and had not pitched since April, but he has looked good in his return with a pair of wins and a 1.93 ERA in three starts. I don’t think Pivetta is a bad option for Game 2 considering that the Padres have a deep bullpen, especially if they can get a deep start out of King in Game 1. But there is one factor that makes the difference: historically, he has pitched much better against the Cubs.

Buehler is 1-4 with a 5.83 ERA in nine appearances—eight as a starter—against Chicago in his career. The situation has gotten worse this season, with a 0-1 record, an 11.42 ERA, three home runs and 11 runs allowed in just 8 2/3 innings. Five of the Cubs’ regular hitters have driven in at least two runs against Buehler and four have hit home runs: Dansby Swanson (2), Michael Conforto (2), Seiya Suzuki and Miguel Amaya. Pivetta, on the other hand, has fared better. He is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA and has recorded at least five innings in four of his five starts.

The last time he faced Chicago in the regular season was in April 2025, when he pitched six innings of one-run ball to earn the Padres’ 4-2 victory. He followed that up with a strong outing (two earned runs over five innings) in last year's Wild Card Round.

Again, Swanson and Conforto appear in the matchups with two home runs each, but among them only Ian Happ (3-for-10 with a double and six strikeouts) and Carson Kelly (3-for-6, triple and RBI with three strikeouts) have been able to produce against Pivetta’s pitches.

Pivetta appears to be the best option here, unless the Padres decide otherwise against the dangerous Cubs lineup that has been relentless against them this year.

Is Jake Cronenworth Worthy of Starting Every Day?

In many offensive terms, Jake Cronenworth has not had a more puzzling season than this one. His power had disappeared along with a sudden lack of quality contact. In a way, that can be forgivable in a hitter, and some good at-bats can hide those problems when those hits change the course of games. Cronenworth has never been known as the type of hitter made for clutch moments, but when his swing is right and he does not chase too much, he often shows up.

He is getting it done these days after a completely quiet first half of the season. In high-leverage situations, Cronenworth has a career 91 wRC+, so it was inevitable to be surprised by his –12 wRC+ in the first part of the season. It’s not that he has been that good in those situations since the All-Star break, but he has a 77 wRC+, his OPS has risen from .259 to .623, and he finally broke out of his puzzling power outage in clutch moments.

After dropping from a 119 wRC+ in July to 75 in August, Cronenworth’s swing has produced a 101 mark this September and he is at his best point of the season combining contact and power. He should probably be in the lineup in every postseason game the Friars play, barring a particularly tough matchup.

Are Dustin Harris and Samad Taylor ready to overcome the pressure of the postseason?

The answer for the Padres could be in the rhythm Cronenworth can maintain, and how much they are willing to risk defensively for Gavin Sheets’ bat. Both Taylor and Harris have been revelations who have brought contact and speed to the lineup. The metrics have Taylor at –2 Fielding Run Value, the same as Cronenworth, while Sheets has –4 and the worst range of the entire Padres' defense this year. Harris has the best numbers among them, but he is still an average fielder.

So, the Padres have to decide which formula could work best. If they keep Cronenworth at second base with his range issues to preserve his bat in case he stays hot, the only consolation at this point is that he has been a better contact hitter against left-handed pitchers.

The other option is to bring Fernando Tatis Jr. to second base, as they have also experimented with recently, and keep Harris in right field. The other decision would be who remains the starter in left field, but I don’t think there is much discussion at this point considering the way Taylor is playing.

With Tatis at second base, the Padres would have one of the best defensive infields we could see in these playoffs, and the all-important defensive equation would be much more fortified. Over the last few weeks, Cronenworth has appeared at every infield position, which seems like a preview of the role he will have.

In the postseason, every pitch, every out and every detail counts. So, finding the best initial defensive setup could be the key, and something I love about these Padres is that they have the versatility to make any number of combinations work.

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