Can Robbie Ray Overcome His Inconsistency Against The Consistently-Good Brewers?

[Yirsandy Rodríguez]

When the San Diego Padres acquired veteran left-hander Robbie Ray at the trade deadline, they did it thinking about October, so this is the moment when they need his contribution the most: Game 1 of the NLDS against the Milwaukee Brewers, the most consistent team in baseball this season.

Ray arrives with a negative experience under the October lights, pitching to a 0-3 record with a 7.43 ERA in six postseason appearances, only two of them as a starter. His 13 innings pitched have come over a span between 2017 and 2022, with the terrible memory of allowing a walk-off home run by Yordan Alvarez in the ninth inning on Oct. 11, 2022, when the Seattle Mariners needed one out to win 7-5. His last outing was also in relief in the 18th inning, three days later in Game 3, when Seattle lost 1-0 and ended up being swept in the ALDS.

Now Ray has a new opportunity for redemption after that nightmare in October, but he will have to overcome what could be considered his worst moment of this campaign. His performance in the second half of the season in San Diego fell somewhat short of expectations, although, overall, Ray remained the pitcher who had finished the first half with the San Francisco Giants. His xFIP rose from 4.87 to 4.98 since the All-Star break, and hitters considerably increased their BABIP from .238 to .298. Even so, I would say that Ray’s biggest problem continues to be his inconsistency in preventing runs, as his left-handed profile continues to present control problems and more vulnerable points against right-handed hitters.

Season	Handedness	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	FastSw%	K-BB%	Barrel%	HR	OPS
2026	vs L	27.7%	66.9%	44.7%	53.8%	83.6%	23.3%	11.9%	3.8%	2	.680
2026	vs R	28.5%	71.1%	46.7%	61.5%	88.5%	30.8%	6.5%	9.6%	20	.719

Right-handed hitters have recorded similar swing rates to left-handed hitters, against pitches inside and outside the strike zone, but the impact of the contact is different, producing 20 of the 24 home runs Ray has allowed all year. In a certain way, it seems like a strange combination, since left-handed hitters have a high strikeout-to-walk rate, but improve those dividends with more BABIP (.333 vs. .231 against right-handed hitters).

In any case, these trends bring us to two points that could be key in Game 1: how much Ray can dominate the left-handed hitters the Brewers put in the lineup, and whether he can avoid his regular-season collapse when right-handed hitters hit him hard. There is a number in the table that sounds very revealing: the 7.5% difference between the FastSw% of right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters, which clearly reveals the aggressiveness and determination with which they look for his pitches when they choose to swing.

So, now an important part of the matchup enters the conversation, and the historical matchup of Ray against the hitters on this Brewers offense. Ray pitched only once in 2026 against Milwaukee; it was this past Aug. 12, and he recorded a short start of 84 pitches in only four innings. He allowed two earned runs and a home run for the third consecutive start against the Brewers, although the previous two were last year, pitching with the Giants.

However, the recent numbers from those starts do not tell the whole story of Ray’s success against Milwaukee, although he has allowed seven runs, 13 hits and three home runs over 14 innings in his last three starts. Milwaukee hitters have produced a line of just .194/.306/.323, with two home runs — both by Gary Sanchez — five RBIs, 15 strikeouts and 10 walks in 72 plate appearances.

Even allowing a home run in each of his last three starts, the Brewers have combined for less than a .200 BA, a .305 on-base percentage and a slugging percentage below .325. That sounds good, and in 72 plate appearances there are some interesting points there.

Player	PA	Pit/PA	HR	K%	BB%	xOBP	xSLG	xwOBA	Whiff%	Hard Hit%
Ortiz, Joey	3	6.0	0	33.3%	33.3%	.362	.044	.260	25.0%	100.0%
Bauers, Jake	2	6.0	0	0.0%	50.0%	.525	.076	.376	20.0%	0.0%
Contreras, William	10	5.3	0	20.0%	40.0%	.468	.184	.354	27.3%	25.0%
Sánchez, Gary	9	4.6	2	22.2%	11.1%	.337	.910	.496	36.4%	50.0%
Yelich, Christian	6	4.2	0	0.0%	16.7%	.449	.696	.477	33.3%	60.0%
Turang, Brice	7	3.9	0	28.6%	0.0%	.282	.447	.311	31.3%	60.0%
Chourio, Jackson	5	3.8	0	0.0%	0.0%	.364	.548	.391	12.5%	60.0%
Lockridge, Brandon	6	3.7	0	50.0%	0.0%	.119	.231	.147	54.5%	66.7%
Frelick, Sal	5	3.4	0	0.0%	20.0%	.546	.480	.458	14.3%	0.0%
Hamilton, David	2	2.5	0	0.0%	0.0%	.232	.313	.233	0.0%	0.0%

Ray has been a strikeout pitcher against Brewers hitters, with a swing-and-miss rate above 25% against six of the 10 hitters on the list. But, if you look, at the same time, he allows 50% or more Hard Hit% against six of them. Yelich and Turang appear among the left-handed hitters who have hit him the best, while Sanchez, Chourio and Lockridge lead the impact from the right-handed hitters.

The strikeouts have been there once Ray has been able to get ahead in the count, but he has also run the risk of walking hitters or ending up giving up a pitch in a count with an advantage for the hitter.

I don’t know what feeling you get when analyzing all these trends, but they describe perfectly to me what Ray has been at least since he arrived in San Diego: at times, some flashes of the intelligent left-hander who could surprise hitters with pitches on the corners and in the upper third of the strike zone, but often, inconsistent in throwing quality strikes, maintaining his command and resolving game situations without wearing himself out so much.

Look at one more detail, and it is that half of the hitters have seen him average at least 4.2 pitches per plate appearance, and the lowest average on the entire list is David Hamilton, with 2.5. With the great bullpen San Diego possesses, it's unlikely Ray will be on the mound for very long, especially if he cannot dominate left-handed hitters and gets into trouble early.

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